IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Well that was a buzzkill. You can see here the broad low pressure well offshore as early as 72hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 We have to find a way to get rid of the initial development and have one consolidated surface low near the 500mb low over the Carolinas. Then we might be able to turn the corner and tug everything northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 We have to find a way to get rid of the initial development and have one consolidated surface low near the 500mb low over the Carolinas. Then we might be able to turn the corner and tug everything northwest. I think the ensembles will be N of this . It`s been the most bullish . Its 1 OP run . 4 days out just focus on the ensembles . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Non sticking flakes? If 925's are +2/ +4 with light precip, it's rain. For metros Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I think the ensembles will be N of this . It`s been the most bullish . Its 1 OP run . 4 days out just focus on the ensembles . Nothing wrong with the 500mb low being that far south as long as that's where the rest of the energy consolidates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The big UKMET upgrade this summer may prove to be a useful tool for this winter as the 12z UKMET today was very close to the Euro. The day 5 skill scores are in second place right behind the Euro.The 0z run was more tucked in near the BM like the Euro and shifted east 12z. This could give us a few hour jump on what the 12z Euro may show. https://ams.confex.com/ams/31Hurr/webprogram/Paper243428.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The big UKMET upgrade this summer may prove to be a useful tool for this winter as the 12z UKMET today was very close to the Euro. The day 5 skill scores are in second place right behind the Euro.The 0z run was more tucked in near the BM like the Euro and shifted east 12z. This could give us a few hour jump on what the 12z Euro may show. https://ams.confex.com/ams/31Hurr/webprogram/Paper243428.html cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2PNA.png cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2PNA.png All the sources for the Ukmet that I have all are shaky and only show days 4-6. Do you have a source for the full run? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Hey Anthony, you forgot to post the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 All the sources for the Ukmet that I have all are shaky and only show days 4-6. Do you have a source for the full run? Thanks. Meteociel had a little problem today so only 96-144 updated earlier. That site has the maps later in the morning instead of PSU which comes out in the afternoon. They have further computer upgrades in the pipeline. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&carte=1021&ech=0&archive=0 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/UKHEMI_12z/ukloop.html Cray Awarded $128 Million Supercomputer Contract From the UK's Met Office SEATTLE, WA -- (Marketwired) -- 10/27/14 -- Global supercomputer leader Cray Inc. (NASDAQ: CRAY) today announced the Company has been awarded a contract to provide the Met Office in the United Kingdom with multiple Cray® XC™ supercomputers and Cray® Sonexion® storage systems. Consisting of three phases spanning multiple years, the $128 million contract expands Cray's significant presence in the global weather and climate community, and is the largest supercomputer contract ever for Cray outside of the United States. Headquartered in Exeter, England, the Met Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service and is recognized as one of the world's most accurate forecasters. The Met Office uses more than 10 million weather observations a day and an advanced atmospheric model to create 3,000 tailored forecasts and briefings each day that are delivered to customers ranging from government, businesses, the general public, armed forces and other organizations. In their final configurations, which will include Cray® XC40™ systems as well as next-generation Cray XC systems with current and future Intel® Xeon® processors, the Cray supercomputers at the Met Office will have 13 times more supercomputing power than its current systems. The Met Office will use its new Cray supercomputers and storage systems for operational weather prediction and climate research. "We are very excited about this investment in UK science," said Met Office Chief Executive Rob Varley. "It will lead to a step change in weather forecasting and climate prediction, and give us the capability to strengthen our collaborations with partners in the South West, UK and around the world. The new Cray supercomputers, together with improved observations, science and modeling, will deliver better forecasts and advice to support UK business, the public and government. It will help make the UK more resilient to high impact weather and other environmental risks." "We are truly honored that one of the most prestigious weather centers in the world has awarded us with the largest international contract in Cray's history," said Peter Ungaro, president and CEO of Cray. "The award is symbolic for Cray on a number of fronts -- it demonstrates that our systems continue to be the supercomputers of choice for production weather centers across the globe, that our close relationship with Intel is providing customers with enhanced capabilities today and into the future and it reinforces the role that Cray plays in impacting society on a daily basis in a wide range of areas. The Met Office is both a pioneer and leader in weather and climate services, and we are excited that Cray supercomputers and storage solutions will assist them in achieving their important and complex mission of informing citizens and industry how the weather and climate will affect them now and in the future." The Cray XC40 supercomputers are engineered to meet the performance challenges of today's most demanding high performance computing (HPC) users. Special features of the Cray XC40 supercomputers include: the industry-leading Aries system interconnect; a Dragonfly network topology that frees applications from locality constraints; DataWarp applications I/O accelerator technology; innovative cooling systems to lower customers' total cost of ownership; the next-generation of the scalable, high performance Cray Linux Environment supporting a wide range of applications; Cray's HPC optimized programming environment for improved performance and programmability, and the ability to handle a wide variety of processor types in a tightly-integrated system infrastructure. The next-generation Cray Sonexion storage solution will be delivered in phases and, all total, will include more than 20 petabytes of storage capacity, running at speeds of more than 1.5 terabytes per-second of bandwidth. Cray's Sonexion storage system combines Cray's Lustre expertise tightly integrated in a unique design that allows for maximum scalability. Management and operations are simplified through an appliance design with all storage components including software, storage and infrastructure. Consisting of products and services, the multi-year, multi-phase contract is valued at more than $128 million at current exchange rates. Multiple system deliveries are expected between 2014 and 2017, with the major deliveries expected between 2015 and 2017. For more information on the Cray XC series of supercomputers and Cray Sonexion storage systems, please visit the Cray website at www.cray.com. For more information on the Met Office, please visit www.metoffice.gov.uk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 All the sources for the Ukmet that I have all are shaky and only show days 4-6. Do you have a source for the full run? Thanks. The UKMET out to 144hr available here as well. I don't think the UKMET runs beyond that either: http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_0012_foreign_models.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Just taking a real quick glance at the 15z SREF mean regarding the initial development east. Looks like we're starting to get a bit of a cluster back towards the NC coast at 87 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Hey Anthony, you forgot to post the JMA Just got home from shopping. Not a bad look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 We have to find a way to get rid of the initial development and have one consolidated surface low near the 500mb low over the Carolinas. Then we might be able to turn the corner and tug everything northwest. Why do we HAVE to? For what? Im confused lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Why do we HAVE to? For what? Im confused lol If you get the initial development offshore it's going to drag the baroclinic zone east. Your surface low pressure developing behind it over OBX is then going to follow the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Some love from WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The 12z Euro ensemble mean is beautiful. Big hit. Cold as well. Closed 500mb low passes just southeast of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The 12z Euro ensemble mean is stronger and further west than at 0z. 996mb low over 40/70 BM at 108hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Better check out the entire boundary layer before saying that. Check list for precip type - everyone please read so there are no misunderstandings http://www.milli-bar.com/MillibarForum/files/a_comprehensive_winter_weather_forecast_checklist_100.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The 12z Euro ensemble mean is stronger and further west than at 0z. 996mb low over 40/70 BM at 108hrs.Snow or rain for the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Snow or rain for the coast? Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The 12z Euro ensemble mean is stronger and further west than at 0z. 996mb low over 40/70 BM at 108hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 John. Post the H5. It's a classic look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Snow did you do the check list in this link ? http://www.milli-bar.com/MillibarForum/files/a_comprehensive_winter_weather_forecast_checklist_100.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Just a touch warmer at 96 for the coast . But the system looks great at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 did you do the check list in this link ? http://www.milli-bar.com/MillibarForum/files/a_comprehensive_winter_weather_forecast_checklist_100.pdf I've been doing this long enough. That's a classic look for a major coastal storm on the mean. You would be hard pressed to find a better look at four + days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Anyone have snow map of actual ensemble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 And John`s Favorite the CONTROL RUN lol. Which would make everyone happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Snow or rain for the coast?rain. at 108 hrs the 40f surface isotherm is in sussex county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I've been doing this long enough. That's a classic look for a major coastal storm on the mean. You would be hard pressed to find a better look at four + days out. as forky posted the surface at 108 hrs is 40 in Sussex county - this isn't December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Euro mean would definitely be rain to snow as the low cranks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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