Weathergun Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 12z GGEM at 90hr. The trough is more amplified than GFS. But it still misses the capture and phase. The southern stream energy is moving too fast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Euro time, will update when necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Very small differences so far on the Euro, the trough is a tick sharper through 75 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Trying to turn the corner. Broad development 200 miles east of the benchmark and southeast of OBX, very similar to 00z, perhaps just a tick closer to the coast so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Hour 87 closing off at H5 over Kentucky. A bit southwest of 00z. Light precip almost to Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Taking a little longer than 0z to close off at H500 through 84hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Hour 99 closing off again. Two surface lowes, one right ontop of OBX and the other 100 miles south of the benchmark. Moderate precip into the area, airmass looks marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 light rain and temps near 50 at 18z saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Surface low a little further SE at 96 hrs due to UL taking longer this run to close off than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 hr 105 996 light rain for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 light rain and temps near 50 at 18z saturday This run is warmer than 0z. Rain to snowflakes on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 12z Euro out to 96hr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 What a hot mess. To me it looks the models are having an awfully hard time trying to figure out what piece of energy to focus on. Wave intereference FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 994 just outside the benchmark…a little to far east this run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 This run is warmer than 0z. Rain to snowflakes on this run. the 0z run gave the nyc metro no snow whatsoever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 gets down to 988…pretty strong storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Ends up not as good as 00z. I don't buy this solution for a second. Could we end up with a series of strung out low pressure systems? I suppose so, but I don't think it's likely given the phasing that should be occuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 gets down to 988…pretty strong storm Thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 So is it a series of strung out lows or a pretty strong system? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Too progressive this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 850's are cold, especially west of the city, but the surface is in the 40's inland and lower 50's on the coast. Still several more days to sort this out. Going to need a track well east with an inverted trough or hope for some sort of synoptic bomb to get flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 So is it a series of strung out lows or a pretty strong system? lol It becomes a very strong system its just a bit to progressive this run……idk why he said that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 So is it a series of strung out lows or a pretty strong system? lol It looks just like the GFS, several systems one after the other after the other, however the last surface low that develops deepens somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 12z Euro crushes New England. Just a hair late for our area but still plenty of time.http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html 850's are cold, especially west of the city, but the surface is in the 40's inland and lower 50's on the coast. Still several more days to sort this out. Going to need a track well east with an inverted trough or hope for some sort of synoptic bomb to get flakes. Everyone goes over to flakes on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 It's pretty simple really, the southern stream energy runs out ahead of everything else and a weak surface low develops on the baroclinic zone out near the benchmark as early as 78hrs and the energy dropping down the backside never has a chance of catching up. Slow phase, sloppy phase, whatever you want to call it, same result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 12z Euro crushes New England. Just a hair late for our area but still plenty of time. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html Everyone goes over to flakes on this run. Better check out the entire boundary layer before saying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Better check out the entire boundary layer before saying that. Non sticking flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 12z Euro crushes New England. Just a hair late for our area but still plenty of time. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html Everyone goes over to flakes on this run. Ah no ,,,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 12z Euro crushes New England. Just a hair late for our area but still plenty of time. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html Everyone goes over to flakes on this run. By New England you mean interior Maine? Because that's the only place in the northeast that drops the surface below freezing while appreciable precip is falling. It's a cold rain for everyone else and the Euro snow maps confirm this. Nothing outside of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 By New England you mean interior Maine? Because that's the only place in the northeast that drops the surface below freezing while appreciable precip is falling. It's a cold rain for everyone else and the Euro snow maps confirm this. Nothing outside of Maine. Yes, Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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