IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Still not much of a surface reflection through the end of the run by at hour 84 snow has broken out from the Albany region of NY State southwest towards the lakes and down into Western PA and into the Apps. This would have likely produced a rather amped up robust solution. Great sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Where do you get your NAM info from so quickly? Stormvista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Where do you get your NAM info from so quickly? E wall out to 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Tropicaltidbits is also a good source. Here is the negatively tilted trough at hour 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Stormvista Not good. E wall out to 78 Good! I can use this source. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 When you compare that to 06z below, quite significant changes regarding the phase and amplitude of the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 i thought everyone used e-wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 i thought everyone used e-wall Tropicaltidbits has the best maps around, IMO, and it updates as fast as most sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 Yup, hr. 84 on the NAM looks good...cold air well in place and trough/energy looks good for a coastal blow-up...still too far out to see the details though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 That still looks like a "too little, too late" phase for any meaningful cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 84 hr NAM . You can see how the colder 850`s are out ahead of the precip .So to me it looks more in line with the Euro ensembles this far away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 12z euro should be a good bit of fun since it looks like the promising trends have continued. NAM was markedly improved from its previous runs and closer to the 0z EURO ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 12z GFS should be good. Less progressive and sharper with the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The energy is digging almost to Illinois this run versus Ohio/Michigan at 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Hour 90 surface low popping along the NC/SC border. Huge differences at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Hour 96 closing off at H5 over the NC/SC border. Light precip scattered up and down the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The inverted trough is further south, focused more towards SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 GFS at 102 pops a low off of Hatteras or just south of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Going to come up just a tad short this run. Major improvements at H5 if you wanted something more than a hit or miss inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 GFS at 102 pops a low off of Hatteras or just south of there The initial surface low from the lead vorticity forms off OBX way before that. It's the secondary surface low, forming in response to the impressive shortwave coming down the back end of the trough, that's going to make things interesting. This is an inverted trof scenario most likely, but if the GFS is right there is a chance that the flow could slow down enough to allow for a coastal low to make it far enough westward to impact us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Going to come up just a tad short this run. Major improvements at H5 if you wanted something more than a hit or miss inverted trough. The entire thing happens too far east. Yes, you can get a coastal low up the coast with this setup, but you and I both know where you need the main s/w to drop south to get the main development near the baroclinic zone off the coast. The tilt of the trough is not ideal and the initial surface low drags things too far east despite the impressive energy aloft http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/f96.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The initial surface low from the lead vorticity forms off OBX way before that. It's the secondary surface low, forming in response to the impressive shortwave coming down the back end of the trough, that's going to make things interesting. This is an inverted trof scenario most likely, but if the GFS is right there is a chance that the flow could slow down enough to allow for a coastal low to make it far enough westward to impact us. H5 looks better on this run compared to the 6z run. Imagine if this turns into a Miller A ( possibility ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 That still looks like a "too little, too late" phase for any meaningful cyclogenesis. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The 12z GFS was digging the northern s/w much like the 0z Euro did. The difference is the GFS doesn't catch up first & southern branch low in time. The second northern s/w hasn't even gotten involved yet: 0z ECMWF: 12z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 All i want to see is some flakes and a hard freeze....after this the month of november looks very mild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The UKMET shifted further south this run also from 0z. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=0&nh=1&archive=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 12z GGEM is really close but looks like a late phasehttp://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/234_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 12z GGEM is really close but looks like a late phase http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/234_100.gif GFS esque, potent 500mb energy is left behind after the initieal SW pulls everything northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Off the Hatteras coast the 12z NAVGEM goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Off the Hatteras coast the 12z NAVGEM goes You're never going to get it to come up close enough to the coast as long as that initial wave develops and pulls the baroclinic zone northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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