DiehardFF Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Its halloween! Would be a great start to winter if we got this. Plenty of chances down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The 00z ECMWF gets the southern 2/3rds of the area with a solid inverted trough, but I would be very careful since we're still four days out and these features are very difficult to forecast. What was more interesting to me is that it developed a fairly potent surface low just offshore in the wake of the inverted trough. If the energy can consolidate so more we could be looking at a full blown noreaster. Still need a lot to change for that to happen, but it was a big improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 If you think you're getting an inch of snow from this..im sorry but your crazy. This is and has always been flurries/snowshowers at best. Well let's be honest.....we're clearly changing our opinions with each model run here, aren't we? The model runs did show a storm with significant impacts (more than flurries or snow showers). If this was February and the models showed this/that, it's implications would be a large storm. I think it is more based on the likelihood of it happening in November and not in the scope of this storm's impacts. If it gets its act together, we could see accumulating snow. I don't think that it will likely happen at all, but there's no reason why it definitely would not. Besides, anyone posting in this forum/thread anyway is holding on to hope for a little bit of something, maybe more. Some just always seem to take the side of criticizing others for admitting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The Euro ensemble mean is rather juiced up from hours 114-132 for the entire area. Really great overnight trends. Lets hope it continues today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Some of you really need to take it down a few notches, especially considering that the weather is a subject with an outcome none of you can control. A board is for varying opinions and views, not just the popular view. The problem is, he was speaking in absolutes. This hasn't even happened yet. Calling people crazy for discussing the possibility of snow isn't right. The only person that needs to take it down a few notches are people speaking in absolutes 5 days out from the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I remember a lot of people didn't think that NYC would see snow from the early November snowstorm back in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The problem is, he was speaking in absolutes. This hasn't even happened yet. Calling people crazy for discussing the possibility of snow isn't right. The only person that needs to take it down a few notches are people speaking in absolutes 5 days out from the storm Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I remember a lot of people didn't think that NYC would see snow from the 11/2/12 storm.That was an epic weenie band in NYC, the storm went a litlle east of what was forecasted and got some good snows (but missed out on the big winds because of it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The models should probably begin to converge now that Ana's remnants are ashore along the West Coast now. Tropical connections can always make for an interesting storm to track. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/17056 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 That was an epic weenie band in NYC, the storm went a litlle east of what was forecasted and got some good snows (but missed out on the big winds because of it) Rain here quickly changed to snow. Got around 3-4 inches from it. It caught a lot of people off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Had about 8" of cement during the November snowstorm. Branches were down everywhere and I had no power for three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I remember a lot of people didn't think that NYC would see snow from the 11/2/12 storm. The models should probably begin to converge now that Ana's remnants are ashore along the West Coast now. Tropical connections can always make for an interesting storm to track. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/17056 There are three separate disturbances involved here. Two of them are in data sparse regions of Northern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The 00z ECMWF gets the southern 2/3rds of the area with a solid inverted trough, but I would be very careful since we're still four days out and these features are very difficult to forecast. What was more interesting to me is that it developed a fairly potent surface low just offshore in the wake of the inverted trough. If the energy can consolidate so more we could be looking at a full blown noreaster. Still need a lot to change for that to happen, but it was a big improvement. 0z Euro ensembles are much better then the operational. Especially for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 There are three separate disturbances involved here. Two of them are in data sparse regions of Northern Canada. On the 0z GFS, there was a piece left up in Canada that didn't phase into the trough.If everything phases , we could be looking at a nor-easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 0z Euro ensembles are much better then the operational. Especially for the coast. Perhaps you missed my post about the Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 There are three separate disturbances involved here. Two of them are in data sparse regions of Northern Canada. Yeah, this long animation shows how Ana's remnants play into the mix. This will be interesting to track now that the models will start to converge. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Ana_WV_1200UTC_12-27October_arrow.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Had about 8" of cement during the November snowstorm. Branches were down everywhere and I had no power for three days. It wasn't that bad here but it was bad traveling home from work especially no one had any idea that it was going to snow. I remember the Euro was the first model to show significant snow for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Some of you really need to take it down a few notches, especially considering that the weather is a subject with an outcome none of you can control. A board is for varying opinions and views, not just the popular view. The people who have to take it down a few notches are those that dismiss any potential 120 hours out and say anyone expecting anything out of this is wrong. That sounds more like a definitive statement, not an opinion or view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 It wasn't that bad here but it was bad traveling home from work especially no one had any idea that it was going to snow. I remember the Euro was the first model to show significant snow for the area. No offense but I probably have more trees on my block than in all of Brooklyn lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Had about 8" of cement during the November snowstorm. Branches were down everywhere and I had no power for three days. One fell on my car and broke my driver's side mirror and dented my whole roof. I popped out the roof and replaced the mirror myself but every day I drive my car I'm reminded of that November storm from looking at all the bumps on my poor car roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 No offense but I probably have more trees on my block than in all of Brooklyn lol troof! do tree's actually grow in "da hood"? and I don't mean the ones people smoke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 troof! do tree's actually grow in "da hood"? and I don't mean the ones people smoke Brooklyn and Manhattan have the least amount of trees. Queens, Bronx and Staten Island have a lot of sections that are pretty thick in trees. Especially Northeast Queens and Northern Bronx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Brooklyn and Manhattan have the least amount of trees. Queens, Bronx and Staten Island have a lot of sections that are pretty thick in trees. Especially Northeast Queens and Northern Bronx. Staten Island is all trees, unless you are on the main roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Brooklyn and Manhattan have the least amount of trees. Queens, Bronx and Staten Island have a lot of sections that are pretty thick in trees. Especially Northeast Queens and Northern Bronx. Add the fact that we have underground wires and I've never lost power in my life (weather replated that is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The November 2012 snow was just an extension of sandy for me because I still hadnt gotten power back and was on day 12 of backup generator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 0Z ECMWF Text output for JFK: SAT 00Z 01-NOV 12.0 -0.2 1012 64 41 0.00 553 544SAT 03Z 01-NOV 11.6 0.1 1011 66 34 0.00 552 543SAT 06Z 01-NOV 11.3 1.0 1009 69 34 0.01 550 543SAT 09Z 01-NOV 10.7 1.9 1007 87 79 0.01 549 543SAT 12Z 01-NOV 10.7 1.0 1007 93 98 0.21 549 543SAT 15Z 01-NOV 10.1 1.2 1007 93 88 0.30 548 543SAT 18Z 01-NOV 9.4 1.2 1006 87 97 0.41 548 543SAT 21Z 01-NOV 9.1 1.0 1005 84 96 0.03 546 542SUN 00Z 02-NOV 8.7 -0.1 1005 81 88 0.06 544 540SUN 03Z 02-NOV 7.8 0.0 1004 79 87 0.03 542 539SUN 06Z 02-NOV 7.2 -1.1 1002 80 97 0.09 540 539SUN 09Z 02-NOV 6.8 -3.0 1002 76 99 0.02 538 537SUN 12Z 02-NOV 6.0 -2.7 1004 77 98 0.05 537 534SUN 15Z 02-NOV 6.8 -4.3 1005 70 93 0.02 538 533SUN 18Z 02-NOV 8.2 -5.9 1006 55 82 0.03 539 534 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Brooklyn and Manhattan have the least amount of trees. Queens, Bronx and Staten Island have a lot of sections that are pretty thick in trees. Especially Northeast Queens and Northern Bronx. How can you say that Manhattan doesn't have a lot of trees when they have Central Park? Brooklyn is really the only boro that is almost wall to wall pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I should also correct myself, I lost power in the October 2011 snowstorm for three days. To me, the November 2012 storm wasn't even memorable because Sandy overshadows everything else in my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 6Z GFS snow cover - well above normal for early november http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=10&model_dd=28&model_init_hh=06&fhour=120¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 6Z GFS snow cover http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=10&model_dd=28&model_init_hh=06&fhour=120¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Long Island couldn't take the weight of the snow and sank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.