REDMK6GLI Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I would welcome a trace or more of snow anytime from November 1-15. There were some real heavy hitters in the following T or more at NYC during November 1-15. NYC trace or more of snow November 1-15 and total seasonal snowfall: 1887-1888.....45.6" 2002-2003.....49.3" 1962-1963.....16.3" 1879-1880.....22.9" 1953-1954.....15.8" 2012-2013.....26.1" NYC....ISP 46.9" February record blizzard 1892-1893.....49.7" 1987-1988.....19.1" 1995-1996.....75.6" 2004-2005.....41.0" 1911-1912.....29.5" 1906-1907.....53.2" That 1995-96 analog is awesome everytime i see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I think we often look for correlations where none exist, or where there is not enough sample ... even though NYC has a long history, the sample is not very robust when you start filtering the data... e.g., if we ran Z tests on Novembers that had snow vs. those that didn't and looked at average snowfall, the result would not be statistically significant methinks. I would welcome a trace or more of snow anytime from November 1-15. There were some real heavy hitters in the following T or more at NYC during November 1-15. NYC trace or more of snow November 1-15 and total seasonal snowfall: 1887-1888.....45.6" 2002-2003.....49.3" 1962-1963.....16.3" 1879-1880.....22.9" 1953-1954.....15.8" 2012-2013.....26.1" NYC....ISP 46.9" February record blizzard 1892-1893.....49.7" 1987-1988.....19.1" 1995-1996.....75.6" 2004-2005.....41.0" 1911-1912.....29.5" 1906-1907.....53.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Doesn't mean much yet, but the 15z SREF's look fairly amped up with the northern stream shortwave that eventually drops in and phases. Generally a good sign considering that they are usually over amplified at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I think we often look for correlations where none exist, or where there is not enough sample ... even though NYC has a long history, the sample is not very robust when you start filtering the data... e.g., if we ran Z tests on Novembers that had snow vs. those that didn't and looked at average snowfall, the result would not be statistically significant methinks. The point is that there is nothing that says that an earlier snow at NYC will have some negative impact on seasonal snowfall potential. Some years the snowy pattern becomes established early enough in November and carries through the winter. I can remember reading accounts of the legendary winter of 1779-1780 having some very early snows. But I will shy away from calling for cold enough winter temps this year for people to be able to cross NY harbor and LI Sound on the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 The point is that there is nothing that says that an earlier snow at NYC will have some negative impact on seasonal snowfall potential. Some years the snowy pattern becomes established early enough in November and carries through the winter. I can remember reading accounts of the legendary winter of 1779-1780 having some very early snows. But I will shy away from calling for cold enough winter temps this year for people to be able to cross NY harbor and LI Sound on the ice. Totally agree, I think we are making the same point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Heard that the Euro ensembles look great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 GFS caved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Heard that the Euro ensembles look great Anthony, have you seen the gfs 18z model? I'm trying to load it but it's taking too long!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 GFS caved Still has the storm but it misses the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 GFS looks like Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 No offense folks, but if anyone here actually thought this "storm" was going to happen, you need to take a break and enjoy life. Considering this is a weather forum and for many of us a hobby, we are enjoying life by discussing model runs, specially when there is a threat in some of the runs. But thanks for the advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 WINTERS HERE! the mood swings encouraged by model runs have resumed. honestly this is suppose to happen Saturday and its what Monday night? some in here have got to take a chill pill and let this play out. how many times have a model(s) nailed a forecast this far out? regardless if this happens or not lets not make us look like a bunch of people who act like we live and die on the model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 WINTERS HERE! the mood swings encouraged by model runs have resumed. honestly this is suppose to happen Saturday and its what Monday night? some in here have got to take a chill pill and let this play out. how many times have a model(s) nailed a forecast this far out? regardless if this happens or not lets not make us look like a bunch of people who act like we live and die on the model run Well, it is a bunch of people who live and die on each model run, lol. Wait until it comes back again and dissappears after that. Some People will jump off a cliff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 No offense folks, but if anyone here actually thought this "storm" was going to happen, you need to take a break and enjoy life. You're so right and the gfs is always perfect on its 18z run 5 days out. Enjoying the warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Shame on people for talking about weather on a weather forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I'm just busting some balls in here, its to damn tight in this place. Yes, it could snow, will it, most likely not with the current look, maybe some flurries at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I can see a burst of Moderate Snow possible for NYC and NW of the city, but it will be relatively short. The snow will also be wind driven (winds gusts over 40 mph) , so the wind chill will easily approach the mid 20s. That's if the LP is close enough to wrap the cold air around itself. Otherwise, scattered flurries looks pretty likely by Saturday Evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 To have the best shot at seeing an early trace or more of snow for Central Park we will need a faster H500 closing off along the lines of the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 0z GFS looks like the 12z Euro.Rain to snowshowers/flurries for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 nothing impressive with the latest model trends towards flurries at the best. it's only november, so I expect nothing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 nothing impressive with the latest model trends towards flurries at the best. it's only november, so I expect nothing right now. It's not that far away from something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 It's not that far away from something big. I've heard that before...with almost every storm that happens, the models are always not that far from something big. It takes a lot of things to go right for something big to happen this early in the season, hence why it is rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Sunday morning is going to be cold. GFS is showing near freezing temps right near the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I've heard that before...with almost every storm that happens, the models are always not that far from something big. It takes a lot of things to go right for something big to happen this early in the season, hence why it is rare. it's only Monday. I would wait till Thursday 12z runs to make a real decision. Do u by any chance have the surface map for tonight gfs 0z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Sunday morning is going to be cold. GFS is showing near freezing temps right near the City. Marathon runners should love that, thought it may be a tad too cold for them. Especially if it is windy as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Sunday morning is going to be cold. GFS is showing near freezing temps right near the City.honestly I wouldn't be surprised if we get an inch or so out of this. I guess no frost Sunday morning could be a freeze though. I love it! Although I wish we'd get frost before a freeze. My father always told me you need a frost and than a hard freeze to get a cold and snowy winter. He's old though so I don't know how accurate he is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 honestly I wouldn't be surprised if we get an inch or so out of this. I guess no frost Sunday morning could be a freeze though. I love it! Although I wish we'd get frost before a freeze. My father always told me you need a frost and than a hard freeze to get a cold and snowy winter. He's old though so I don't know how accurate he is! If you think you're getting an inch of snow from this..im sorry but your crazy. This is and has always been flurries/snowshowers at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 If you think you're getting an inch of snow from this..im sorry but your crazy. This is and has always been flurries/snowshowers at best. *you're Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 These inverted trough setups on the models are often overdone at this stage. It could happen but odds are it would be minor and confined to a small area inland. If we continue to see trends toward a sharp amplification and the low closing off south of us, I might become more interested. Right now I'd hedge towards this being a showery frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 If you think you're getting an inch of snow from this..im sorry but your crazy. This is and has always been flurries/snowshowers at best. a car topper is definitely possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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