TeleConnectSnow Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 The new NAM is redicoulous! This storm has been a pain in the ass to forecast. Edit; Ninja'd Still doesn't give snowfall to NYC. Not ninja'd at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Still doesn't give snowfall to NYC. Not ninja'd at allAgain, it's the NAM, but it does actually put some flakes in the air not too far from NYC, if not in the city itself for a short time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Yikes. Is it seeing a deformation zone? At this range I would actually care what the NAM is showing because of that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Still doesn't give snowfall to NYC. Not ninja'd at allThe ninja'd was because someone beat me to it. I obviously didn't get the soundings yet but there's likely some snow there for many who live north (and to a lesser extent west) of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Again, it's the NAM, but it does actually put some flakes in the air not too far from NYC, if not in the city itself for a short time ON WxBell, I just looked at the ptype and all rain based on that. Yes, you could see white rain for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 ON WxBell, I just looked at the ptype and all rain based on that. Yes, you could see white rain for a time.It's the first few days of November, any precipitation that falls with 850 mb temperatures below freezing and has a chance of producing a few catpaw flakes is exciting. If you don't feel that way, so be it, but I'm excited for winter and a few flakes mixing in is possible and would be exciting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 It's the first few days of November, any precipitation that falls with 850 mb temperatures below freezing and has a chance of producing a few catpaw flakes is exciting. If you don't feel that way so be it but I'm excited for winter and a few flakes mixing in is possible and would be exciting to see. Agreed, first flakes of the season are always great to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Hr 27 850`s Minus 2 - 2M Temps 40 KNYC . Sprinkles or a Flurry . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 ON WxBell, I just looked at the ptype and all rain based on that. Yes, you could see white rain for a time.I would almost rather see purple or November rain than white rain. Nothing more frustrating. "Wasted potential, kid..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I would almost rather see purple or November rain than white rain. Nothing more frustrating. "Wasted potential, kid..." Lol nice post. November rain ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Joe cioffi loves the idea of nyc changing to snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Wind Advisory for Suffolk County and Coastal CT (east of BDR) from 2pm Sat to 5pm Sun. OKX disco says they may expand them later. Already JFK reporting wind gust 33mph. Some gusts down NJ shore around 40mph. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/gmap.php?zoom=7&extents=37.422526,-79.650879,42.472097,-70.532227&density=1 1.5" of rain over SNJ already: FLOOD ADVISORYNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ514 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014NJC001-005-029-011315-/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.Y.0381.141101T0914Z-141101T1315Z//00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/BURLINGTON NJ-ATLANTIC NJ-OCEAN NJ-514 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR... SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY... SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY... SOUTHEASTERN OCEAN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...* UNTIL 915 AM EDT* AT 512 AM EDT, UP TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN HASFALLEN IN SOME AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALLEXPECTED. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN COULD RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OFROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHILEDRIVING EARLY THIS MORNING.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THEROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSSSAFELY.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 SNJ jackpot pattern continues. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN OCEAN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...* UNTIL 915 AM EDT* AT 512 AM EDT, UP TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN HASFALLEN IN SOME AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALLEXPECTED. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN COULD RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OFROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHILEDRIVING EARLY THIS MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 0.61" thus far, temps in the mid 40's. Really raw out (Avenel, NJ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 If it were a month or two later JFK would be jackpotting right now!! (the observer would under measure and they would still be at the bottom) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 What time the much talked about nurlun event going to set up tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 If it were a month or two later JFK would be jackpotting right now!! (the observer would under measure and they would still be at the bottom)This is reminiscent of the event last early January where much of our snow came from an inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 What time the much talked about nurlun event going to set up tonight follow the spin....... cause we not in http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/reg/index.php?type=northeast-vis-24 QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 158 PM EDT SAT NOV 01 2014 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID NOV 02/0000 UTC THRU NOV 03/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR ...EASTERN STATES... MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARD REASONABLY SIMILAR HANDLING OF ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPR LOW THAT IS FCST TO PUSH OFF THE SC/NC COAST THIS EVENING INDUCING A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH FURTHER NE FRONTAL WAVE LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD FROM WELL OFF THE COAST OF THE DELMARVA REGION..RESULTING IN A VERY STG STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUN. THE GFS WHICH HAD BEEN THE MOST WESTERN OUTLIER SOLN WITH BOTH THE TRACK OF THE MAIN SFC LOW AND QPF ACRS NEW ENGLAND IS PRETTY WELL IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TRACK OF THE EVENTUAL MAIN SFC LOW TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. HOWEVER IT REMAINS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST WITH THE HEAVIER QPF AXIS ACRS MAINE..WHILE SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS WHICH HAD BEEN DRIER HAVE COME IN LINE WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. PREFERENCE IS TO CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSE TO CONTINUITY ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE EC. WITH INITIAL WAVE FCST TO SLOW OFF THE SRN COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...A PERSISTENT ELY LOW LEVEL FETCH SHOULD HELP FOCUS A LONG DURATION PERIOD OF PCPN INTO ERN MAINE..WITH ELY 85H FLOW AND WAA INCREASING ON SAT AS LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND TRACKS EAST OF MAINE. SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY DECENT COMMA HEAD BAND DVLP SAT NIGHT/SUN OVER ERN MAINE WITH FAIRLY TIGHT PCPN GRADIENT. STG DYNAMIC COOLING/HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT A RAPID CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OVER MUCH OF CNTL/ERN MAINE WITH THE SEASONS FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. PLEASE SEE THE WINTER WEATHER GRAPHICS/QPFHSD FOR THE SNOWFALL DETAILS. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfpfd http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/ptyp/ptyp.gif?1414866597188 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 0.64" here and 43°... my kind of Nov day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I'm loving today also. It just lets me know that wintry weather is not that far away. Only 45F right now with over a half inch of rain today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 This is just a perfect autumn day. Jealous of the Carolinas, but I hope they enjoy what they've got! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 1.02" today. South east apps can have their snow. Late Oct, early Nov snow for us usually don't bode well for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 1.02" today. South east apps can have their snow. Late Oct, early Nov snow for us usually don't bode well for winter. another old wives tale - now look at this chart and tell me what you see http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 another old wives tale - now look at this chart and tell me what you see http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Heh.I would say that almost all of the top snow years had insignificant totals in Oct and Nov, meaning the Dec-Mar totals were significantly higher. What do you see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 SNJ rainfall magnet in full effect. NEW JERSEY...ATLANTIC COUNTY...ATLANTIC CITY 3.02 320 PM 11/01 NJWXNET...BURLINGTON COUNTY...NEW LISBON 2.17 335 PM 11/01 MESONETCHATSWORTH 1.99 335 PM 11/01 MESONET...OCEAN COUNTY...BARNEGAT LIGHT 3.05 411 PM 11/01 MESONETWEST CREEK 2.41 321 PM 11/01 NJWXNETHARVEY CEDARS 2.10 322 PM 11/01 NJWXNETPOINT PLEASANT BEACH 2.00 445 PM 11/01 NJWXNETLAKEWOOD 1.90 336 PM 11/01 MESONET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Winds are howling here in Newark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Winds are howling here in Newark out here in SW Suffolk its pretty windy as well. went down to Robert moses this afternoon and the waves are really kicked up in ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 2, 2014 Author Share Posted November 2, 2014 This would have been a heartbreaker in mid winter....still would have got some snow...but this could have been a bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 This would have been a heartbreaker in mid winter....still would have got some snow...but this could have been a bomb so close yet so far. I still believe that if this would've been a full blown nor'easter some of our members close to NYC might've seen they're first snowfall of the season. the disjointed mess didn't help us that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Still raining...All day basically nonstop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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