IsentropicLift Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Through 66 hours The trough off the Canadian west coast is more amplified and as a result the downstream ridge over Western Canada is more amplified. It's slowing down the entire evolution so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Hoping this storm doesnt produce snow anywhere close to NYC. I know many have said this but it doesnt go well for a good winter. I just discounted that theory in another thread going a few days ago - did you say in the many years where we had average to above average snow in winters where it snowed over 1 inch in November ??? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Through 84 hours The most obvious change so far is the Western rigde being more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Hoping this storm doesnt produce snow anywhere close to NYC. I know many have said this but it doesnt go well for a good winter. Many areas up here usually see their first flakes this time of yr. I remember accumulating snow around Halloween of 02.. That winter many areas here recieved 85-95" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 It's digging the northern energy further south this run but the low still pops near Toronto. The ridge axis is too far East. We really need it back towards Idaho instead of the Montana/North Dakota border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 We went into 2011-2012 winter with very cold stratosphere. That's why that winter was a failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 12z Navgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 12z Navgem Another sign winter has started, referencing that NAVGEM model usually our most progressive model as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Inverted low/trough setup on 12z Euro. East of the 12z GFS. More over E LI and SE New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Inverted low/trough setup on 12z Euro. East of the 12z GFS. More over E LI and SE New England. Euro was a step towards the gfs for sure at the H5 level especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Euro was a step towards the euro for sure at the H5 level especially. Euro was a step towards the Euro, really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Euro was a step towards the Euro, really? He meant to say the GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Atleast we took positive steps on all the models. Still pretty progressive . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Atleast we took positive steps on all the models. Still pretty progressive . A big step in the right direction in closing off the low further south. LI gets some snow as the low pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Good job on provinding joe c the gfs snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 two years ago we had 65 kt winds followed by warning criteria snow that same week... is this really that interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 12z JMA just for laughs Good job on provinding joe c the gfs snowfall map Thanks. He is a great guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 two years ago we had 65 kt winds followed by warning criteria snow that same week... is this really that interesting? Good point forky, regardless the first snow of the season tends to get many people in this subforum all hot under the collar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 12z JMA just for laughs Thanks. He is a great guy. JB is on this amplification train for this storm saying its a cattle prod to the atmosphere, he tends to be extreme at times but he does hold a good bit of merit here IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 May need the korean upside down L's to get the party started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 It would be nice just to end the growing season. As it continues for many in sne and NYC Is that not normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Is that not normal? It's late for the suburbs and the roses are still producing flowers. The grass is still very green and growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Hard to tell off these maps but it looks like the UKMET was close to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 WPC is still keeping most of the action north of us http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1414437689 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 two years ago we had 65 kt winds followed by warning criteria snow that same week... is this really that interesting? Is 90-95 degree heat really interesting in summer? This is a weather board FFS... and yes, the potential for accumulating snow in early November around these parts is pretty damn interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Nice roller coaster ride coming with warmth tomorrow, cold (poss. precip.) Saturday and back to warmth next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Is 90-95 degree heat really interesting in summer? This is a weather board FFS... and yes, the potential for accumulating snow in early November around these parts is pretty damn interesting. one op model run shows rain ending as a coating in the nyc metro... that's pretty lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Hoping this storm doesnt produce snow anywhere close to NYC. I know many have said this but it doesnt go well for a good winter. There have been cases of snow in November that did not turn out well but its a fairly small sample, when you take a close look though it just turns out many of those snow events occurred in years were most indices and the global patterns were against cold and snowy winters here. Many of our cold and snowy winters have had near misses for snow events in November, 93-94, 02-03 had one and 95-96 had several near misses early in the month..87-88 while not the snowiest winter for NYC was very snowy just to the south and fairy cold and a storm literally had to pull a Houdini act in November not to give us snow, both DCA and BOS had over 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 There have been cases of snow in November that did not turn out well but its a fairly small sample, when you take a close look though it just turns out many of those snow events occurred in years were most indices and the global patterns were against cold and snowy winters here. Many of our cold and snowy winters have had near misses for snow events in November, 93-94, 02-03 had one and 95-96 had several near misses early in the month..87-88 while not the snowiest winter for NYC was very snowy just to the south and fairy cold and a storm literally had to pull a Houdini act in November not to give us snow, both DCA and BOS had over 6 inches.Thanks for the clarification. Saying 95'-96' had some near misses and the ensuing winter being our best region wide really brings some comfort. This year does look promising for winter thus far regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I would welcome a trace or more of snow anytime from November 1-15. There were some real heavy hitters in the following T or more at NYC during November 1-15. NYC trace or more of snow November 1-15 and total seasonal snowfall: 1887-1888.....45.6" 2002-2003.....49.3" 1962-1963.....16.3" 1879-1880.....22.9" 1953-1954.....15.8" 2012-2013.....26.1" NYC....ISP 46.9" February record blizzard 1892-1893.....49.7" 1987-1988.....19.1" 1995-1996.....75.6" 2004-2005.....41.0" 1911-1912.....29.5" 1906-1907.....53.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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