Weathergun Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I think the weak inverted trough and influx of moisture from the western atlantic is real. I don't think we'll get much from the coastal storms dynamics itself. I think it's real too. There's also small, intense 5h vort coming up from the south tomorrow morning that could further enhance rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 The NAM is digging further southeast this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I'm waiting for the day that people stop reading his stuff and posting these same reactions. Nothing against you, but the guy is what he is. And people still bite on it every time, and post the same stuff "What a crazy forecast by JB, haha, I wonder when he will stop being so crazy omg". I should've critiqued my statement better john. IMO his downfall is his reputation he's made for himself to have an obligation to be the first person to sniff out a threat and to be that guy who called it when the models were wrong. This situation the models overwhelmingly are against this being more than a few flakes at the end of us, however he's still grasping at straws. I pay for his stuff because i feel he is alot better at a long range pattern recognition. He's been consistent with the winter call ( so have everyone else with cold/snowy ). However, he has shown what he expects to happen and when and the models little by little are starting to show the transition into a winter pattern slowly but surely by mid november. Hes not a terrible forecaster, just a forecaster that just leaves himself on the chopping block wayyyyy too many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 JB is STILL grasping at those straws for this storm. Writing is on the wall that those in the NYC proper-east region may see some snow flakes towards the end. Hes convinced its going to be a good bit N&W from what the models are showing. God'damn it JB quit being so damn stubborn and save some credibility for once! I have no idea why this is grasping at straws or how this loses credibility . This has been his idea for a week .A COLD RAIN in NYC ending as some wet snow flakes . Either you are reading too much into what he`s forecasting and hoping for something more and you are not understanding what he is saying , a cold rain ending with a few wet snow flakes is nothing earth shattering . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 NCEP is running a parallel GFS at a higher resolution in the mid latitudes. It's much farther west/northwest than the OP GFS. For what its worth I'm not a follower of JB, but if this parallel model verified, JB would claim victory perhaps for the Pocono's & along the spline of western, northern interior New Jersey and into areas well north and west of NYC. But again we can't go with just one model of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Rgem coming in wetter so far and also introduces mixed precip for NEPA and NWNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 The GFS is a tick east of 06z. Trend today has been to dig the 500mb low further southeast. Time is just about up. Still think we get pretty decent rains from the inverted trough tommorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 This looks like the coldest panel on the RGEM. It has pretty much a stready cold rain all day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 The 12z GFS-parallel is also further east. Same old GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 First low ruins it for the 2nd low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Hard to tell off the crappy B&W maps but the 12z GGEM looks quite wet with the inverted trough. Not surprising given the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Yeah the 12z GGEM is over an inch for the area and over 2" for central NJ. Plus it has at least two panels of moderate precip NW of the city with 850's below freezing. Surface is warm, but could get a few wet flakes mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 You have to love the consistency of the garbage models, this is an all out blizzard from the city West this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 You have to love the consistency of the garbage models, this is an all out blizzard from the city West this run. They're it is! once the CRAS is posted it is time to lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 They're it is! once the CRAS is posted it is time to lock it up Give me another model that has been this consistent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Give me another model that has been this consistent? IF the CRAS was wind up near Lake Erie than i would believe it. The fact the its right off the NJ coast is telling enough. Can anyone tell me Where can i find the GFS-parallel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Give me another model that has been this consistent? Consistently craptastic? NONE! I mean for all the beatings the NAM/JMA take from us here atleast its had it brief moments of success in a life of doom and gloom. The CRAS i am almost positive at this point is being run by anthony secretly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 IF the CRAS was wind up near Lake Erie than i would believe it. The fact the its right off the NJ coast is telling enough. Can anyone tell me Where can i find the GFS-parallel? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014103112/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Looks like the 12z euro is similar to the rgem and has a norlun for NYC/LI tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Looks like the 12z euro is similar to the rgem and has a norlun for NYC/LI tonight. So if this pattern was representative of a month or two down the road, what would your accumulation forecast be for NYC.. 1-3" 2-4" other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 So if this pattern was representative of a month or two down the road, what would your accumulation forecast be for NYC.. 1-3" 2-4" other? For all intents and purposes, forecasting where a norlun will be and with amounts is a real crap shoot. 9/10 times they also favor SNE on north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 For all intents and purposes, forecasting where a norlun will be and with amounts is a real crap shoot. 9/10 times they also favor SNE on north True Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 True That said this shouldnt discourage anyone here. They're are still plenty of positive signs that are pointing to another cold and stormy winter, we will have our fair share of SECS/MECS and hopefully an actual top 5 NESIS HECS ( pure wishful thinking to be honest ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 That said this shouldnt discourage anyone here. They're are still plenty of positive signs that are pointing to another cold and stormy winter, we will have our fair share of SECS/MECS and hopefully an actual top 5 NESIS HECS ( pure wishful thinking to be honest )If you're getting discouraged on 10/31 you have issues. If it weren't for the 11 storm I doubt anyone would even mention accumulating snow this time of year!As far as moving forward I like a weak niño to amp up the southern jet just enough to increase the potential for miller A's. The further south a storm forms the more time it has in our swell window which for surfers kicks ass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Why oh why can't we ever see a real forecast from a major network that highlights the CRAS ? I'm sure it'll happen at some point though. I'm expecting a nasty weekend with some wind and rain. A flake or two ? I doubt it but you never know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 That said this shouldnt discourage anyone here. They're are still plenty of positive signs that are pointing to another cold and stormy winter, we will have our fair share of SECS/MECS and hopefully an actual top 5 NESIS HECS ( pure wishful thinking to be honest ) From NWS: Rain tapers off. A few snow flakes are possible in any leftover showers as colder air filters in. In fact...a few sref members output measurable snow. However...the consensus is for precipitation to end before colder air moves in. So the government experts still thinks its possible that one of us I say with-in 100 miles of NYC gets to see the first look at a little of the white stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 The 850 mb temperatures with this system over the Southeast are very impressive for this time of year. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=SC&prodtype=discussion ..500 HPA TEMPERATURES AREFORECAST TO DROP IN THE -22 TO -26C RANGE WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURESFALLING TO -2 TO -5C. IT SHOULD BE NOTED 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OFTHIS MAGNITUDE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER ARE ABOUT 12 STANDARD DEVIATIONSBELOW NORMAL--CERTAINLY A TESTAMENT TO HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Uh, did anyone see this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Well how about that 00z NAM ? just in time to make things a little interesting. At least we can always count on the NAM to keep things exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 The new NAM is redicoulous! This storm has been a pain in the ass to forecast. Edit; Ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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