IsentropicLift Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 So close to something big, the first low is way west, second wave is weak and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Second low tracks inside the BM. Too bad it's a strung out mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 So close to something big, the first low is way west, second wave is weak and west.it's redicoulously close but very warm and limited moisture distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 1" plus QPF NYC east. Sharp cut off. JMA FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Blizzard for far interior NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 The second low bombs out big time for NNE, the low actually goes over eastern Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 ...TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF/CANADIANCONFIDENCE: AVERAGECOASTAL CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO START RAMPING UP LATE FRIDAY.OVER THE WEEKEND THIS INITIAL LOW LIFTS TOWARD COASTAL NORTHERNNEW ENGLAND...WHILE A SECOND LOW FORMS BENEATH A STRONGLYANOMALOUS VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT DIVES TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST.THE TWO SYSTEMS MAY CONSOLIDATE BY SUNDAY EVENING. GEFS STANDARDANOMALIES FOR 500 MB HEIGHTS REACH AN IMPRESSIVE 4.5 DEVIATIONSFROM CLIMATOLOGY OVER SOUTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CLUSTERING ON A LARGE SCALE...BUT ANUMBER OF SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES. RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITHINTHE GEFS IS EVEN A LITTLE GREATER THAN USUAL...ESPECIALLY TOWARDNORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON DAYS 2/3. THE 12Z GFS MOVED SIGNIFICANTLYLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS 00Z/06Z GFS RUNS. NOT TOO SURPRISINGLY...THE12Z GEFS MEAN SHOWED THE SAME TREND. EVIDENCE IN THE VALIDITY OFTHIS TREND IS STRENGTHENED...HOWEVER...BY THE UKMET AND CANADIANSHOWING SOMETHING SIMILAR...ALTHOUGH TO A LESSER DEGREE. THISALLOWS US TO HEDGE A LITTLE TOWARD A TRACK FARTHER TO THELEFT...AND PERHAPS AN INCREASE TO THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATIONREACHING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MAINE...ON DAYS2/3. THE OPERATIONAL GFS...THOUGH...APPEARS TO SPIN UP THE INITIALLOW MORE STRONGLY AND FARTHER LEFT THAN MOST GUIDANCE...SO WESTILL RECOMMEND SOLUTIONS OTHER THAN THE 12Z GFS.THE 12Z NAM WAS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF...BUT THE NAM WAS EVEN MOREROBUST/DEEP WITH THE ANOMALOUS SHORTWAVE INTO THE CAROLINAS ON DAY2...RESULTING IN A MORE ROBUST SURFACE CYCLONE. THE NAM IS ALSOPARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE AT RAISING HEIGHTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THETROUGH BY DAY 3. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD NARROWING THEBREADTH OF THE TROUGH...BUT THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN ACROSS NORTHAMERICA WOULD ARGUE TOWARD MORE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THEEAST COAST...MORE LIKE THE NON-NAM SOLUTIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 So close to something big, the first low is way west, second wave is weak and west. the last couple of days each run has been progressively more phased between the two lows. I mean we literally almost have a full phase on te GFS 18z it's so close to being a full blown nor'easter. This is why you can't trust the models beyond 36 hours especially the fact that this system is very complex. Someone in the Maine state will get two feet of snow with this system. You noticed a few days ago it was showing some snow for NYC, now the GFS and EURO both lost that but it looks like the GFS is trying to get that idea back and you can tell that there'll be some snow even to our north and east of the city Saturday night as this low really strengthens! Anybody got the snow map for GFS 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 So close to something big, the first low is way west, second wave is weak and west. the last couple of days each run has been progressively more phased between the two lows. I mean we literally almost have a full phase on te GFS 18z it's so close to being a full blown nor'easter. This is why you can't trust the models beyond 36 hours especially the fact that this system is very complex. Someone in the Maine state will get two feet of snow with this system. You noticed a few days ago it was showing some snow for NYC, now the GFS and EURO both lost that but it looks like the GFS is trying to get that idea back and you can tell that there'll be some snow even to our north and east of the city Saturday night as this low really strengthens! Anybody got the snow map for GFS 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Anybody got the snow map for GFS 18z? http://wintercast.tripod.com/id14.html http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/US/gfsUS_sfc_prec_069.gif http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 http://wintercast.tripod.com/id14.html CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif thanks man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 18z GEFS mean QPF supports op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 0Z NAM still a miss and just about entering its more accurate range http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014103100/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 0Z NAM still a miss and just about entering its more accurate range http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014103100/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png Honestly poor thing looked confused. Toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Nam doesn't have a good range lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Honestly poor thing looked confused. Toss. so you think its not going to be a miss ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Honestly poor thing looked confused. Toss. It's a confused looking storm that is in several pieces and is a sheared out mess. It's likely that it's primarily a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Well lets see if the GFS is a little bit more promising at least for some moderate rain and wind for NYC, Long Island and even a snow flurry or two at the back end. Still time for the generation of the storms to trend more to the west and bring us closer to the precipitation shield and some cold wrap around moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 It's a confused looking storm that is in several pieces and is a sheared out mess. It's likely that it's primarily a miss. Not if the westward shift continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Not if the westward shift continues. GFS is back to a mostly out to sea and disjointed mess look that gives the city less than 0.25" and no one on Long Island more than 0.75". This one's not happening-pattern is way too progressive and the energy is too disjointed. It could be a different story for Cape Cod and downeast Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Down to 42. Forecasted low was 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 NCEP is running a parallel GFS at a higher resolution in the mid latitudes. It's much farther west/northwest than the OP GFS. For what its worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 NCEP is running a parallel GFS at a higher resolution in the mid latitudes. It's much farther west/northwest than the OP GFS. For what its worth Euro op and mean aren't that far off from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Euro op and mean aren't that far off from this. I think the weak inverted trough and influx of moisture from the western atlantic is real. I don't think we'll get much from the coastal storms dynamics itself. The HRRR is already picking up on this in its later frames. We'll start to see precipitation pushing westward along this weak inv trough feature tonight. It's on all high resolution models now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 JB is STILL grasping at those straws for this storm. Writing is on the wall that those in the NYC proper-east region may see some snow flakes towards the end. Hes convinced its going to be a good bit N&W from what the models are showing. God'damn it JB quit being so damn stubborn and save some credibility for once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I think the weak inverted trough and influx of moisture from the western atlantic is real. I don't think we'll get much from the coastal storms dynamics itself. The HRRR is already picking up on this in its later frames. We'll start to see precipitation pushing westward along this weak inv trough feature tonight. It's on all high resolution models now Both the Euro op and ensemble mean give decent rains to the coast from the actual coastal now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 JB is STILL grasping at those straws for this storm. Writing is on the wall that those in the NYC proper-east region may see some snow flakes towards the end. Hes convinced its going to be a good bit N&W from what the models are showing. God'damn it JB quit being so damn stubborn and save some credibility for once! It will be his downfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 JB is STILL grasping at those straws for this storm. Writing is on the wall that those in the NYC proper-east region may see some snow flakes towards the end. Hes convinced its going to be a good bit N&W from what the models are showing. God'damn it JB quit being so damn stubborn and save some credibility for once! I'm waiting for the day that people stop reading his stuff and posting these same reactions. Nothing against you, but the guy is what he is. And people still bite on it every time, and post the same stuff "What a crazy forecast by JB, haha, I wonder when he will stop being so crazy omg". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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