MJO812 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 15z SREF looks wetter than 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 15z SREF looks wetter than 9z Last afternoon the NWS had a chance of rain and snow showers after midnight on Saturday night. Today they are forecasting only rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Euro ensembles are well east. /Threat. Terrible job by the Euro and ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The 500 pattern looks almost exactly like 12/26/10 nationwide, difference though there is no southern stream wave this time and the entire evolution of the system is different. Also looks just like February 2003 other than the fact that it looks nothing like February 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Euro ensembles are well east. /Threat. Terrible job by the Euro and ensembles. You should tell me more about that one event in November 2012 that this resembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 but in their AFD, this afternoon they wrote: THEN AS THE POTENT CLOSED LOW ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH...A STRONGER LOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE DAY SAT INTO SAT EVENING...AND THEN HEAD NE...PASSINGOUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THECLOSED LOW SHOULD REMAIN A SEPARATE ENTITY FROM THE LARGERTROUGH...AND THIS LACK OF PHASING SHOULD PRECLUDE THE AREA FROMSEEING HEAVY PRECIP...SO ACTUALLY HAVE DECREASING POP DURING SATNIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD STILL POUR IN BEHIND THE LOW TOPOSSIBLY CAUSE ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TOSNOW...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THE BIGGEST IMPACTSFROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SHOT OF COLD AND WIND FROM SAT NIGHTINTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. So we analyze, wait and see if we indeed see some snow flurries or snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Also looks just like February 2003 other than the fact that it looks nothing like February 2003 The Weather Channel should name this storm Maximus Prime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The Weather Channel should name this storm Maximus Prime. Nope name is Geno Smith, gonna be intercepted and taken out to sea instead of hitting its target, us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 You should tell me more about that one event in November 2012 that this resembles Your feeling fiesty my friend, adding more fuel to that fire! the WORST thing that can happen right now is if temporarily the models go more amped all of a sudden and show a brief "west trend". Back into the furnace we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Well so much for any freeze either as temps have been going up the past few days for this weekend. Looks like a long growing grass season in a very mild autumn thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Well so much for any freeze either as temps have been going up the past few days for this weekend. Looks like a long growing grass season in a very mild autumn thus far. As of now NWS has a forcast low of 31 for western Nassau county Sunday night.. Im sure it will change but hope it doesn't cause allergies are killing me!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 sunday night should feature the first freeze for mostly everyone outside the immediate metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 18Z gfs says no chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Temps following it shouldn't get much below 40 for most in NENJ/NYC. Thinking 37-40 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 18Z gfs says no chance Wait, people are actually still tracking this "storm". Oh God, if this is happening at this stage in the game, this is going to be a long long winter of weenie weenie weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Wait, people are actually still tracking this "storm". Oh God, if this is happening at this stage in the game, this is going to be a long long winter of weenie weenie weenie. I'd say we're in the game for 3-6", no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 18Z gfs says no chance Please be specific, no chance of snow or no chance of rain and wind? The 18Z shows the low well offshore as it passes to our northeast. NYC gets grazed with some light rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I'd say we're in the game for 3-6", no? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Yes 18z was a miss but it was different aloft again, just keep that in mind. Parts still moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 What changed in the past year or so that has made the Euro so aggressive? Last winter it had nearly every low dumping 10-20"+ inches on us. A couple times it came true with its powerful systems shown. I know that it's "fantasy land" snow pack of 3'+ did end up being close to reality for many, however, in years past I remember it always being much more conservative. Although in reality no model "caves" to another, it did end up showing similar outcomes to the gfs at times, which was more conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Wait, people are actually still tracking this "storm". Oh God, if this is happening at this stage in the game, this is going to be a long long winter of weenie weenie weenie. We track other rain and wind events why would this be different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 We track other rain and wind events why would this be different? The title of this thread is Winter Storm Chance. Not wind and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The title of this thread is Winter Storm Chance. Not wind and rain.Considering that it was a winter storm chance, and that no one can officially declare it a complete non-event until it's over, it's a valid topic to create. What keeps it going is people commenting on it anyway, be it positive or negative. As an alternative, topics could be created such as "leaf blowing companies in NJ/NY" or "frequent mosquito bites in early AM as we approach winter", but they would be just as boring, if not even less entertaining and fun to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Considering that it was a winter storm chance, and that no one can officially declare it a complete non-event until it's over, it's a valid topic to create. What keeps it going is people commenting on it anyway, be it positive or negative. As an alternative, topics could be created such as "leaf blowing companies in NJ/NY" or "frequent mosquito bites in early AM as we approach winter", but they would be just as boring, if not even less entertaining and fun to follow Winter Storm, its not a winter storm chance. If anything its stray flurries/snow showers. The weenies have taken over this blog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Winter Storm, its not a winter storm chance. If anything its stray flurries/snow showers. The weenies have taken over this blog. this threat is all but dead but for someone who has 28 posts and is a noob I would be careful being so definitive and condescending with your attitude in here. there is still that "outside chance" as anybody who has been around here knows the past several winter seasons. Like Yanks said parts are still moving, whether it becomes more or less favorable who knows, we are here to discuss a WINTER STORM CHANCE not a guarantee. Also we can learn something here as well for the future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Wait, people are actually still tracking this "storm". Oh God, if this is happening at this stage in the game, this is going to be a long long winter of weenie weeni e weenie. Only the diehards are still tracking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Please be specific, no chance of snow or no chance of rain and wind? The 18Z shows the low well offshore as it passes to our northeast. NYC gets grazed with some light rain.. Big storm.Coast gets grazed by rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Only the diehards are still tracking it. this is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 this threat is all but dead but for someone who has 28 posts and is a noob I would be careful being so definitive and condescending with your attitude in here. there is still that "outside chance" as anybody who has been around here knows the past several winter seasons. Like Yanks said parts are still moving, whether it becomes more or less favorable who knows, we are here to discuss a WINTER STORM CHANCE not a guarantee. Also we can learn something here as well for the future Lol hes not a "noob" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 this is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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