jbenedet Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 There only REAL problem I see with this setup is the leading shortwave that shifts the baroclinic zone too far east for the main (stronger wave) to intensify closer to the coast. My concerns with the GFS begin around hr 62. I would really expect cyclogenesis to occur right around OBX and for the system to rapidly intensify. The far superior upper level dynamics associated with the trailing wave should cause it to predominate the leading wave sooner, resulting in less of a shift east of the baroclinic zone. I have to believe the Euro's superior resolution will help it to seek out the location of best dynamics while the two systems are temporarilly competing at a very critical stage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The 12z GGEM has first low giving us light/moderate rain. The second low goes further east. The 500mb low digs into SC before opening up again: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 There only REAL problem I see with this setup is the leading shortwave that shifts the baroclinic zone too far east for the main (stronger wave) to intensify closer to the coast. My concerns with the GFS begin around hr 62. I would really expect cyclogenesis to occur right around OBX and for the system to rapidly intensify. The far superior upper level dynamics associated with the trailing wave should cause it to predominate the leading wave sooner, resulting in less of a shift east of the baroclinic zone. I have to believe the Euro's superior resolution will help it to seek out the location of best dynamics while the two systems are temporarilly competing at a very critical stage... One of the best posts here today, EURO has been fairly steadfast with this system, ensembles though seem to have not honed in a solution yet as the spread remains quite notable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Very slight improvement on the 12z GEFS mean over 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 One of the best posts here today, EURO has been fairly steadfast with this system, ensembles though seem to have not honed in a solution yet as the spread remains quite notable The OP has shifted 500 miles over the last 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Very minor differences on the Euro so far through 42 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 More intereaction with the northern energy, which has been the trend so far today amongst all of the 12z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Closes off at H5 over N KY hr 63 which is sooner and further West than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Surface low near Wilmington, NC hour 72. Initial development gives this no chance of turning the corner. I think we're starting to get a concensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 This threat is done guys. H5 low is digging more and more each run and forcing it to close off 800+ miles too far south. DONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 This threat is done guys. H5 low is digging more and more each run and forcing it to close off 800+ miles too far south. DONE. Agree. What a shame. What looked like a fun storm to track is now done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 As bluewave has been saying for a few days, the ensemble means having the tendency to smooth out extremes means they are less amplified, allowing for the 500mb low to close off much further NW instead of digging down to South Carolina. That's why the ensemble mean has the nice look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 This threat is done guys. H5 low is digging more and more each run and forcing it to close off 800+ miles too far south. DONE. What a weenie comment at 72+ hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 That being said, the 2nd piece of energy is much more consolidated this run, allowing the surface low to be much more mature at 90 hours on the 12z run vs 102 hours on the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 What a weenie comment at 72+ hours out. You ..... Surface low near Wilmington, NC hour 72. Initial development gives this no chance of turning the corner. I think we're starting to get a concensus. Isn`t that the same thing ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 As of right now, looks like showers for Saturday with possibly some flakes mixed in, especially north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 That being said, the 2nd piece of energy is much more consolidated this run, allowing the surface low to be much more mature at 90 hours on the 12z run vs 102 hours on the 00z run. ,The low detaches itself from main trough too much and Western ridge axis is already over Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 What a weenie comment at 72+ hours out. What a weenie comment at 72- hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 What a weenie comment at 72- hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 ,The low detaches itself from main trough too much and Western ridge axis is already over Midwest. Yeah, the storm digging so much gives more time for the western ridge axis to move way too far east for any meaningful amplification in time for our longitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 You ..... Surface low near Wilmington, NC hour 72. Initial development gives this no chance of turning the corner. I think we're starting to get a concensus. Isn`t that the same thing ? I've seen too many dramatic shifts inside of 48 hours the last few years to declare anything over this far out. Things are not trending well but we still have a few more cycles to see if things can shift around some. For one, our southern stream feature is just coming onshore now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I've seen too many dramatic shifts inside of 48 hours the last few years to declare anything over this far out. Things are not trending well but we still have a few more cycles to see if things can shift around some. For one, our southern stream feature is just coming onshore now. That`s fine. but you call him a weenie for saying " it`s done " 3 minutes after you said "Initial development gives this no chance of turning the corner. I think we're starting to get a concensus." which really meant the same thing to me . There`s prob a day to correct , but the max in mind is seeing some flakes at the end at the coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 That`s fine. but you call him a weenie for saying " it`s done " 3 minutes after you said "Initial development gives this no chance of turning the corner. I think we're starting to get a concensus." which really meant the same thing to me . There`s prob a day to correct , but the max in mind is seeing some flakes at the end at the coast . That what we are probably going to see. Mostly rain here with a few flakes mixed in towards the end which is fine by me since it's only the start of November. We will have more chances soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 That`s fine. but you call him a weenie for saying " it`s done " 3 minutes after you said "Initial development gives this no chance of turning the corner. I think we're starting to get a concensus." which really meant the same thing to me . There`s prob a day to correct , but the max in mind is seeing some flakes at the end at the coast . I'm still not 100% sold on that initial development occuring. And if it does occur, my money is on the 500mb low over powering whatever develops out ahead of everything else. Furthermore, seeing the GGEM go crazy with the first wave gives me even more confidence that it's a bogus solution. Seems to me like a classic case of wave interference where the globals are struggling mightily on where the foucus should be. I could certainly be wrong, but a met made a similar comment here a few hours back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 There only REAL problem I see with this setup is the leading shortwave that shifts the baroclinic zone too far east for the main (stronger wave) to intensify closer to the coast. My concerns with the GFS begin around hr 62. I would really expect cyclogenesis to occur right around OBX and for the system to rapidly intensify. The far superior upper level dynamics associated with the trailing wave should cause it to predominate the leading wave sooner, resulting in less of a shift east of the baroclinic zone. I have to believe the Euro's superior resolution will help it to seek out the location of best dynamics while the two systems are temporarilly competing at a very critical stage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Ridge axis is to far east. Trough pushing into west coast causes this ridge axis to move to far east which makes everything get shunted to far east. Ridge axis needs to be further west and the trough pushing into the west needs to slow down in order to have the low pressure along the east coast come closer up the coast.. Without that IMHO ..nothing to look at! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Hey...we got the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The 500 pattern looks almost exactly like 12/26/10 nationwide, difference though there is no southern stream wave this time and the entire evolution of the system is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The 500 pattern looks almost exactly like 12/26/10 nationwide, difference though there is no southern stream wave this time and the entire evolution of the system is different.Dont feed the weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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