REDMK6GLI Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I dont care if the NAM showed a blizzard for us. Me personally i think the NAM is just as bad as the SREF's at this range, honestly when was the last time the NAM was taken seriously here? GFS/EURO/UKMET/GGEM have ALOT more weight than those two at any range IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I dont care if the NAM showed a blizzard for us. Me personally i think the NAM is just as bad as the SREF's at this range, honestly when was the last time the NAM was taken seriously here? GFS/EURO/UKMET/GGEM have ALOT more weight than those two at any range IMO NAM nails 1-2 events a year in the long range (hours 60-84). But most of the time it's useless. One classic one it nailed was the huge inverted trough that dropped 4"-8"+ area wide after a large missed coastal storm. I think it was March 2013. IMO, this event has a better chance of a large inverted trough feature, then a fully phased coastal and models will not pick that up until inside of 36 hours. If that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 NAM nails 1-2 events a year in the long range (hours 60-84). But most of the time it's useless. One classic one it nailed was the huge inverted trough that dropped 4"-8"+ area wide after a large missed coastal storm. I think it was March 2013. IMO, this event has a better chance of a large inverted trough feature, then a fully phased coastal and models will not pick that up until inside of 36 hours. If that. I remember this well. The NAM refused to back down despite the other models (esp GFS) whiffing. The key on that one was it was an inverted trough feature (and a huge one is right), something that the NAM would have an easier time seeing than the other models due to its resolution. This seems to be a set up on a larger scale, which is why I like the Euro Ens staying consistent. Of course, some agreement with the other globals would be nice during this upcoming suite --- one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 NAM nails 1-2 events a year in the long range (hours 60-84). But most of the time it's useless. One classic one it nailed was the huge inverted trough that dropped 4"-8"+ area wide after a large missed coastal storm. I think it was March 2013. IMO, this event has a better chance of a large inverted trough feature, then a fully phased coastal and models will not pick that up until inside of 36 hours. If that. To hang your hat on the NAM (based on last performance) is a danger in and of itself; however, to use a mesoscale model for a 72-84 hour forecast is misusing the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 It was a much better phase, but it was more progressive with the trough progression. I'm starting to think the problem is the trough digging into the West Coast. As the ridge amplifies it's pushing east. This is why I have been saying all along that the ridge axis needs to be closer to Idaho. The lead vort and storm is destroying what chance we have at a major low nearby. It shifts the baroclinic zone and trough east. This has been apparent on the models for days now, so it has a good chance of happening unfortunately. The result is a strung out mess that's pushed out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 To hang your hat on the NAM (based on last performance) is a danger in and of itself; however, to use a mesoscale model for a 72-84 hour forecast is misusing the model. Definitely agree. IMO, a much better short range model is the rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The lead vort and storm is destroying what chance we have at a major low nearby. It shifts the baroclinic zone and trough east. This has been apparent on the models for days now, so it has a good chance of happening unfortunately. The result is a strung out mess that's pushed out to sea. You have to like what you see on the Euro ensembles. It has been steady for days.I don't think we will know the outcome of this upcoming storm until at least tomorrow night or even Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 You have to like what you see on the Euro ensembles. It has been steady for days.I don't think we will know the outcome of this upcoming storm until at least tomorrow night or even Friday. You have to be careful with the euro ensemble mean. The individuals have a bunch of super amped members that hug the coast with a full phase and skew the whole mean. The mean is smoothed out and even if it appears that the coastal precip is large and over our area, it's not entirely true. The one thing that is consistent with the euro ensemble mean is the position of the closed H5 low. It's been persistently further north then all the guidance. If true, that would allow the secondary coastal to form further north and further west. But again, even this feature could be skewed by a few amped up members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Definitely agree. IMO, a much better short range model is the rgem. The RGEM is a much better short range model than the NAM like you said. The RGEM didnt do too bad last year either IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The RGEM is a much better short range model than the NAM like you said. The RGEM didnt do too bad last year either IIRC Rgem can be a little erratic as well, but overall there is no doubt it's better then the NAM. Especially inside of 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 You have to be careful with the euro ensemble mean. The individuals have a bunch of super amped members that hug the coast with a full phase and skew the whole mean. The mean is smoothed out and even if it appears that the coastal precip is large and over our area, it's not entirely true. The one thing that is consistent with the euro ensemble mean is the position of the closed H5 low. It's been persistently further north then all the guidance. If true, that would allow the secondary coastal to form further north and further west. The EURO ensembles are a great tool nonetheless, but they're are just many features here that can inevitably kill the amped members. One thing that i learned last year from paul is when the EURO OP/ENS. Are in agreement its a good bet they're correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The lead vort and storm is destroying what chance we have at a major low nearby. It shifts the baroclinic zone and trough east. This has been apparent on the models for days now, so it has a good chance of happening unfortunately. The result is a strung out mess that's pushed out to sea.The story of last year's patterns also. The perturbations of energy in the atmosphere seem to be keeping it so charged, it is seemingly shooting itself in the foot when attempting to consolidate the energy into one storm. You can see it on a couple of the models really attempting to dig, but then H5 turns on the jets and the energy is whisked away. Yes, this is a possibility, but yet again this is a very dynamic situation and any misinterpretation of the trough will yield the potential for the energy to consolidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The lead vort and storm is destroying what chance we have at a major low nearby. It shifts the baroclinic zone and trough east. This has been apparent on the models for days now, so it has a good chance of happening unfortunately. The result is a strung out mess that's pushed out to sea. Yes. I've been posting about that for a few days now. It could however be overcome by a less progressive trough and stronger phasing further west. We need the 500mb low to track inland over the Mid-Atlantic coast and then south of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Virtually no change on the 12z GFS through 42 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The trough is more amplied this run and the closed 500mb is a tick northeast this run as compared to 06z through 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Hour 75 sub 1000mb low popping right over OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Should be about the same as 6z but maybe a hair farther west given the h5 look at 72-78 hrs. But the trough being a little less amplified may lead to the consolidation of the sfc low being slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Kicked northeast, however the 500mb low ends up much closer to the coast. That's what you call an improvement at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 A little less disjointed. But baroclinic zone still kicked too far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Kicked northeast, however the 500mb low ends up much closer to the coast. That's what you call an improvement at H5. A little more phasing on this run. Agree about H5. That should correlate to the surface in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 A little less disjointed. But baroclinic zone still kicked too far east Take away that initial development and this blows October 2011 off the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Take away that initial development and this blows October 2011 off the map. Needs to be much more organized as a whole. The entire thing is disjointed all the way from the shortwave itself, to the initial lead energy, to the trof over the lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Has there been any trend on dampening the initial wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 There's a pretty tight pressure gradient between that low and the high pressure to our west. There could be some pretty good winds if the low goes inside the BM and bombs out a bit sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Take away that initial development and this blows October 2011 off the map.Agreed doesnt look like that is gonna happen as it is still getting shunted east. Improved at H5 but thats all you can get from this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The real difference regarding the position of the 500mb low is at 87 hours which I can not post but you can see the difference at 84 hours as well. 12z 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Any differences between those two maps look extremely negligible to me. If that represents the kind of adjustments we're looking for, I think we can safely put this on the backburner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Needs to be much more organized as a whole. The entire thing is disjointed all the way from the shortwave itself, to the initial lead energy, to the trof over the lakes Yeah, the 500mb low detached itself from the great lakes trough is another issue Keeps the precip shield from expanding west, even if the coastal low is deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Well the chances of Saturday being a cold, rainy and potentially windy miserable day are increasing. Whatever happens we should see some precipitation. As is, the 12z GFS has 40kt+ surface winds just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Well the chances of Saturday being a cold, rainy and potentially windy miserable day are increasing. Whatever happens we should see some precipitation. As is, the 12z GFS has 40kt+ surface winds just offshore. Most of the forecast I get are calling for possible showers Saturday/night with light rain or even snow showers possible in the higher terrain. Temps turn cooler Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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