MJO812 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Most of the Euro ensembles are still either on the benchmark or just tucked inside. Good to have the ensembles on our side but I would like to see the other models follow suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The Euro ensembles were a tick west from the 12z run at 00z last night. The height anomalies are extremely impressive as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 My forecast shows highs generally in the low 50s this weekend which is only somewhat below normal so I'm not impressed at all. Joe Cioffi says low 40's at best for highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Joe Cioffi says low 40's at best for highs. Noaa has me in the mid 40s with rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Guys regardless if this storm produces snow or not the pattern going into winter currently portrayed should give everyone some comfort here. Lots of positive signals pointing towards another banner winter for us thus far, lets not all weenie out on a possible missed snowstorm in NOVEMBER. We've been spoiled by the last two early season snows. Lets hold ourselves to a higher standard and make more constructive posts this season to give us NYC proper crowd some more credibility here. Snow88 thanks for being our cheerleader here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 For those who don't know, you look at the SREF for pure entertainment purposes at this range. But man, some of these are really amped up http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_9z/f87.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Yeah some are pretty sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 For those who don't know, you look at the SREF for pure entertainment purposes at this range. But man, some of these are really amped up http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_9z/f87.gif I posted the 03z members in the New England forum and basically got laughed at. Oh wel...they can be useful if you know how to use them. The NAM through 48 hours is already sharper with the trough and more amplified than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I posted the 03z members in the New England forum and basically got laughed at. Oh wel...they can be useful if you know how to use them. They really are worth nothing at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 If you're going to have one thing on your side at this range, I'd always pick the Euro Ens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 They really are worth nothing at this range I disagree, you want to see them really amped up at this range. If they were flat it would give weight to the flatter solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I disagree, you want to see them really amped up at this range. If they were flat it would give weight to the flatter solutions. Don't agree at all. I have seen them go in every different direction from this range on. Their being amplified has no importance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Looks like the NAM is going for a complete phase this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Don't agree at all. I have seen them go in every different direction from this range on. Their being amplified has no importance. Then why did you even bother to post them John? Certainly you thought they had some value or you wouldn't have bothered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Then why did you even bother to post them John? Certainly you thought they had some value or you wouldn't have bothered. Additional information is always good. Correct interpretation is even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 NAM is coming in a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Looks like the NAM is going for a complete phase this run. Looks like more PV interaction, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 NAM very amped compared to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 It's retrograding the moisture associated with that first wave, should be an interesting run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Closed off at H5 this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 At 72hrs the 500mb winds shift from out of the south to out of the SSE. Negatively tilted trough doing its work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Closed off at H5 this run. 06z closed off as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Wet paste perhaps NW of City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The one thing I have noticed looking religiously at the Euro the last few days for the first time in months is its awful again in the Day 6 plus range, its been jumping all over, thats a sign of another "fun" winter for us if that continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Rainy with surface temps in the upper 40's to lower 50's on Saturday. Mid 40's well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Really impressive evolution aloft. But the baroclinic zone has been shunted east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Really impressive evolution aloft. But the baroclinic zone has been shunted east It was a much better phase, but it was more progressive with the trough progression. I'm starting to think the problem is the trough digging into the West Coast. As the ridge amplifies it's pushing east. This is why I have been saying all along that the ridge axis needs to be closer to Idaho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Additional information is always good. Correct interpretation is even better. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I thought this run was less impressive actually. The ridge over the Central US was more progressive, the h5 trof over the East Coast was less phased and faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I'm starting to think the problem is the trough digging into the West Coast. As the ridge amplifies it's pushing east. This is why I have been saying all along that the ridge axis needs to be closer to Idaho. Definitely part of the problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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