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Nov 1/2 Coastal Chance?


Zelocita Weather

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See November 2012

850`s were Minus 3 and you dropped an inch of liquid through that in some spots . Rates made all the difference cooling the column back in '12 .  Don`t think you cool the BL with this like you did then  . That system deepened to  971 .

 

This goes from 993 to 987 through the area . Does not get to 981 until it`s the gulf of Maine .

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How's it silly?Just because it is october doesn't mean it cant snow.

Because we are probably looking at Rain ending as Some Wet Snow . Not 6 in CPK or 12 in Colts Neck .

Way different system .

 

Not every system is a DYNAMIC one. Rain to Wet Snow and maybe Snow on the grass just NW is still cool for OCT .

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Why? The cold airmass (or at least one with any depth) comes in behind the storm system. 

Temps are below freezing at 850mb for everyone outside of the immediate coast at 96hrs and that's the warmest panel. I can't see the other levels but you have a closed 500mb low southeast of the area. Surely you're going to have dynamic cooling if it verified.

 

ecmwf-ens_T850_us_5.png

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Temps are below freezing at 850mb for everyone outside of the immediate coast at 96hrs and that's the warmest panel. I can't see the other levels but you have a closed 500mb low southeast of the area. Surely you're going to have dynamic cooling if it verified.

 

ecmwf-ens_T850_us_5.png

Just curious can you show me the 6 hour panel with precip rates that are going to cool the BL ?  Not saying YOU don't see some snow ,But I`m not sure many cool that fast

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Just curious can you show me the 6 hour panel with precip rates that are going to cool the BL ?  Not saying YOU don't see some snow , but he was addressing a 2012 comment .

I only have paid maps that show QPF. It's not worth much anway, this is an ensemble mean. All that QPF means is a higher probability of precip in a certain area rather than intensity.

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Temps are below freezing at 850mb for everyone outside of the immediate coast at 96hrs and that's the warmest panel. I can't see the other levels but you have a closed 500mb low southeast of the area. Surely you're going to have dynamic cooling if it verified.

 

 

 

So far the models don't have heavy enough precip here to cool the column enough for that. The lead wave

elongates the pressure field and the heavier rain runs further east. You would need later runs to dampen out

the lead wave that grabs some of the moisture further offshore.

 

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So far the models don't have heavy enough precip here to cool the column enough for that. The lead wave

elongates the pressure field and the heavier rain runs further east. You would need later runs to dampen out

the lead wave that grabs some of the moisture further offshore.

 

attachicon.gifNorth32America_msl_96.gif

exactly without intense precip rates which would help drag the cold air aloft down to the surface it won't be frozen - also remember in 2012 it started snowing first in south jersey and was still raining further north - why ?? because the heavier precip was coming from that direction - this thing has to generate its own cold air 

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