MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 as forky posted the surface at 108 hrs is 40 in Sussex county - this isn't December See November 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 as forky posted the surface at 108 hrs is 40 in Sussex county - this isn't December It's plently cold in the upper levels. I don't buy those surface temps given the 500mb setup. It might be rain for the immediate coast and city but it's a wet paste not too far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 See November 2012 Good times. We got screwed down here in Philly but parts of Jersey made out really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The ensemble is closer to the coast than the OP due to the closed low being located further NW. This could be a case of the ensemble being less amplified than the OP at 96 which it often can be since it's a smoothed mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 It's plently cold in the upper levels. I don't buy those surface temps given the 500mb setup. Why? The cold airmass (or at least one with any depth) comes in behind the storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 See November 2012 850`s were Minus 3 and you dropped an inch of liquid through that in some spots . Rates made all the difference cooling the column back in '12 . Don`t think you cool the BL with this like you did then . That system deepened to 971 . This goes from 993 to 987 through the area . Does not get to 981 until it`s the gulf of Maine . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 That was right after Sandy which made it special. I also had snow in the October 2011 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 See November 2012 why don't you post it here then we can compare it to this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 See November 2012 This is silly and you know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Why? The cold airmass (or at least one with any depth) comes in behind the storm system. I'm guessing we need rapid intensification for the area to see accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 why don't you post it here then we can compare it to this setup You don't even need to. It was a totally different setup and has nothing to do with this. Things like that throw off the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I'm guessing we need rapid intensification for the area to see accumulating snow. We need a whole lot more than that for the area to see accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 How's it silly?Just because it is october doesn't mean it cant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 How's it silly?Just because it is october doesn't mean it cant snow. It is silly to compare this setup to a storm in November of 2012 that was completely different on every level and has nothing to do with this one at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 And as you can see, it completely derails the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 We need a whole lot more than that for the area to see accumulating snow. Like what?The 0z Euro showed Accumulating snow. .How's it derailing Anything?This is a weather board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 How's it silly?Just because it is october doesn't mean it cant snow. Because we are probably looking at Rain ending as Some Wet Snow . Not 6 in CPK or 12 in Colts Neck . Way different system . Not every system is a DYNAMIC one. Rain to Wet Snow and maybe Snow on the grass just NW is still cool for OCT . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Why? The cold airmass (or at least one with any depth) comes in behind the storm system. Temps are below freezing at 850mb for everyone outside of the immediate coast at 96hrs and that's the warmest panel. I can't see the other levels but you have a closed 500mb low southeast of the area. Surely you're going to have dynamic cooling if it verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Temps are below freezing at 850mb for everyone outside of the immediate coast at 96hrs and that's the warmest panel. I can't see the other levels but you have a closed 500mb low southeast of the area. Surely you're going to have dynamic cooling if it verified. Just curious can you show me the 6 hour panel with precip rates that are going to cool the BL ? Not saying YOU don't see some snow ,But I`m not sure many cool that fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Just curious can you show me the 6 hour panel with precip rates that are going to cool the BL ? Not saying YOU don't see some snow , but he was addressing a 2012 comment . I only have paid maps that show QPF. It's not worth much anway, this is an ensemble mean. All that QPF means is a higher probability of precip in a certain area rather than intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Weenies gon' ween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Like what?The 0z Euro showed Accumulating snow. .How's it derailing Anything?This is a weather board. Yeah, for Mt. Pocono Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Temps are below freezing at 850mb for everyone outside of the immediate coast at 96hrs and that's the warmest panel. I can't see the other levels but you have a closed 500mb low southeast of the area. Surely you're going to have dynamic cooling if it verified. So far the models don't have heavy enough precip here to cool the column enough for that. The lead wave elongates the pressure field and the heavier rain runs further east. You would need later runs to dampen out the lead wave that grabs some of the moisture further offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 So far the models don't have heavy enough precip here to cool the column enough for that. The lead wave elongates the pressure field and the heavier rain runs further east. You would need later runs to dampen out the lead wave that grabs some of the moisture further offshore. North32America_msl_96.gif exactly without intense precip rates which would help drag the cold air aloft down to the surface it won't be frozen - also remember in 2012 it started snowing first in south jersey and was still raining further north - why ?? because the heavier precip was coming from that direction - this thing has to generate its own cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 12Z Euro mean was a step in the right direction for the area if we want to seeva strong storm in our area. Many more runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlsnowman24 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Weenies gon' ween. This. You have a 1001 mb low with 850s BARELY cold enough...let alone 925s/sfc. It's gonna be a long winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Hey guys, right now I have a WxBell sub, however, it seems its always late for me even though its a paid site and some on here get info earlier. Are there any other better paid sites instead. thanks to all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 you guys are ridiculous. Lets all be happy if we see a few flakes and just enjoy watching things evolve. For me I am curious to see how the models verify, we hope certainly better than last year. Sit back and enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 This. You have a 1001 mb low with 850s BARELY cold enough...let alone 925s/sfc. It's gonna be a long winter. 850s between 0 and -2C are oftentimes not enough even in mid winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Last March seems like yesterday! Some things will never change..haha. First time poppin in for the winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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