TeleConnectSnow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 4:17 AM, Juliancolton said: *you're The old grammar correction because you don't agree with what I just stated. I LOVE IT!! Means I am doing something right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 4:16 AM, TeleConnectSnow said: If you think you're getting an inch of snow from this..im sorry but your crazy. This is and has always been flurries/snowshowers at best. Nothing is set in stone yet but right now, you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 4:22 AM, Snow88 said: Nothing is set in stone yet but right now, you are right. Not right yet, once the system is clearly through, that will determine the outlook being right/wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 4:22 AM, Snow88 said: Nothing is set in stone yet but right now, you are right. Anthony it looked better than 18z I just saw it. Trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 4:20 AM, TeleConnectSnow said: The old grammar correction because you don't agree with what I just stated. I LOVE IT!! Means I am doing something right. Well, naturally: seeing as we have a non-event on our hands, you surely have a surplus of time normally spent deciphering forecast products to ensure your posts adhere to the most basic standards of grammar. I'll take that bet, BTW. Somebody in the NYC forecast area will see an inch of snow. A couple well-placed ULL-driven squalls in the hills of Rockland County and you're there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 4:26 AM, TonyLovesSnow said: Anthony it looked better than 18z I just saw it. Trend 1. It wasn't better than the 18z actually. 2. One run is not considered a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 4:28 AM, Juliancolton said: Well, naturally: seeing as we have a non-event on our hands, you surely have a surplus of time normally spent deciphering forecast products to ensure your posts adhere to the most basic standards of grammar. I'll take that bet, BTW. Somebody in the NYC forecast area will see an inch of snow. A couple well-placed ULL-driven squalls in the hills of Rockland County and you're there. You try too hard..all I can do is laugh. It's a weather forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 4:28 AM, TeleConnectSnow said: 1. It wasn't better than the 18z actually. 2. One run is not considered a trend Technically it did look a tad warmer on the frontal passage but hey there's plenty of time to change and 0z run has more precipitation. I'll take more precip with collapsing temperatures rather than dry with plummeting temps. 12z was better yes but 0z was better than the 18z IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 4:28 AM, TeleConnectSnow said: 1. It wasn't better than the 18z actually. 2. One run is not considered a trend The GFS is developing a lead system that makes the trough too progressive and the baroclinic zone is dragged out to sea, meaning the main trough can't close off and develop a system in time for us. Verbatim that's nothing more than some showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 0z GGEM has an inverted trough for NYC http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 4:32 AM, jm1220 said: The GFS is developing a lead system that makes the trough too progressive and the baroclinic zone is dragged out to sea, meaning the main trough can't close off and develop a system in time for us. Verbatim that's nothing more than some showers. agree but plenty of time for that trough to dig a little more like it was showing on the 12z. 3 more days of model runs than we can finally assume it'll be just a few showers with some snow mixed in. Let's see what the euro shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 00z GGEM snow maps have no accumulation anyways though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 0z Navgem. More aggressive than the GFS but warmer. H5 doesn't look bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 4:41 AM, TeleConnectSnow said: 00z GGEM snow maps have no accumulation anyways though your most likely going to be right but there is still a possibility that low could explode and give us at least some snow! Good night everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 4:44 AM, TonyLovesSnow said: your most likely going to be right but there is still a possibility that low could explode and give us at least some snow! Good night everyone Explode..um no. Flakes..um yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 4:46 AM, TeleConnectSnow said: Explode..um no. Flakes..um yes. During the time of the possible storm, the AO and NAO are going negative while the PNA is going positive. Indications of a storm. The storm could explode just like the 12z GFS showed. We need the clipper to interact more with the low offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 4:46 AM, TeleConnectSnow said: Explode..um no. Flakes..um yes. well I hope your wrong cause my weenieism is in full swing right now and I want snow that's my final answer! Watch gfs dig that trough on the next run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 4:49 AM, Snow88 said: During the time of the possible storm, the AO and NAO are going negative while the PNA is going positive. Indications of a storm. The storm could explode just like the 12z GFS showed. We need the clipper to interact more with the low offshore.anthony that's all I needed to know. We need that trough digging like the 12z knowing now that the PNA will be positive is a great sign! Talk later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 4:51 AM, TonyLovesSnow said: anthony that's all I needed to know. We need that trough digging like the 12z knowing now that the PNA will be positive is a great sign! Talk later Little spike around November 1 on the PNA Dip on the NAO and AO around November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The northern stream is digging more on 0z GGEM. But the inverted trough is weak. Not enough phasing. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014102800/gem_z500_vort_neus.html http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014102800/gem_mslp_pcpn_neus.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I'd go for mid November warmth for snow flurries in Early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 0z Euro now comes in digging and phasing alot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 4:16 AM, TeleConnectSnow said: If you think you're getting an inch of snow from this..im sorry but your crazy. This is and has always been flurries/snowshowers at best. You need to stop telling everyone what's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 Euro is a snowstorm, no? While 6z gfs also trends in that direction, with a further south phase... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 10:20 AM, Sundog said: You need to stop telling everyone what's going to happen.For someone so new he was coming off as quite pretentious last night, glad someone said something because I was about to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 0z Euro ensemble mean is north of the op run with 500mb low and surface low. But also further south than previous runs. Still could see more swings: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 850`s at 108 OP vs Ensembles . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 UPTON THE PATTERN SEEMS TO BE LOCKED IN FOR A BIT OF WINTER FRI NIGHTINTO SUN. THIS DOES NOT MEAN HOWEVER THERE IS NOT A HIGH AMOUNTOF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE FCST. FORNOW...SOME LGT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOWAPPROACHES. THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN WITH THE ARCTIC AIR STILLUPSTREAM. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR INLAND TO RESULT IN A RASN MIX OR PERIOD OF SNOW LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATMORNING. AGAIN THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LGT AT THIS TIME. LOW PRES THEN TAKES SHAPE OFF THE COAST SAT. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL PLACEMENT. THE GFS DEVELOPS THE SFC LOW SUFFICIENTLY FAR ENOUGH NE OF THE AREA TO RESULT IN ONLY NW FLOW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. THIS TOO HASBEEN CONSISTENT HOWEVER. THE BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERSSUPPORT THE GFS...BUT NOT ALL. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FCST ISA 40 POP SAT AND A 30-40 POP SAT NIGHT TAPERING OFF SUN.CIPS ANALOG BASED OFF THE GFS INDICATES LOW IMPACT WITH SNOWACCUMULATIONS RELEGATED TO N AND W OF THE CWA...MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT. IF THE 00Z ECMWF VERIFIES HOWEVER...ACCUMULATING SNOW FORMUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 10:59 AM, StatenWx said: For someone so new he was coming off as quite pretentious last night, glad someone said something because I was about to. Some of you really need to take it down a few notches, especially considering that the weather is a subject with an outcome none of you can control. A board is for varying opinions and views, not just the popular view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 11:58 AM, Imperator said: Some of you really need to take it down a few notches, especially considering that the weather is a subject with an outcome none of you can control. A board is for varying opinions and views, not just the popular view. An opinion is one thing but nobody likes 'that guy' who comes across as the know it all and calls out people who are just having a discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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