Zelocita Weather Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Looks like some consensus on a significant cold front and a digging trough over the EC and North East this weekend. Some models hinting at cold temps and the chance for the first flakes for some in the forum. Latest GFS certainly hints some in the area could see a few flurries to possibly a little more well N/W. Looks like some consensus on a significant cold front and a digging trough over the EC and North East this weekend. Some models hinting at cold temps and the chance for the first flakes for some in the forum. Latest GFS certainly hints some in the area could see a few flurries to possibly a little more well N/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Looks like some consensus on a significant cold front and a digging trough over the EC and North East this weekend. Some models hinting at cold temps and the chance for the first flakes for some in the forum. Latest GFS certainly hints some in the area could see a few flurries to possibly a little more well N/W. JB in this morning's atmospheric avenger was also beating the drum on this as well being a first snow for many in the interior northeast. We have the cold air this week away from the coast thats for sure. Being on the coastal plain i feel given the current synoptic setup we would see scattered snow showers at the tail end at the most, like you said areas well N&W will have alot better shot of their first accumulating snows of the winter season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I first posted in the Banter thread last week about this potential. It's funny how quickly it was dismissed, not so much in this forum but especially up in New England. If you look at the 06z GFS, the surface never drops below freezing unless you're well north and west, more than say 50 miles NW of the city. With that being said, 850's are definitly cold enough to support a car topper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 It would be nice just to end the growing season. As it continues for many in sne and NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 It would be nice just to end the growing season. As it continues for many in sne and NYC Don't you cut grass for a living? Why would you want to stop making money? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I first posted in the Banter thread last week about this potential. It's funny how quickly it was dismissed, not so much in this forum but especially up in New England. If you look at the 06z GFS, the surface never drops below freezing unless you're well north and west, more than say 50 miles NW of the city. With that being said, 850's are definitly cold enough to support a car topper. Dont think it was dismissed as much as climatologically speaking its just highly unlikely. I know the past few years we've been spoiled with earlier season surprise snows and seen where that got us for the ensuing winters. I agree that we may see a car topper but anything at this moment currently looks very unlikely ATM. Can it change? Yes but unless your from orange county,NY N&W i would expect more than that right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Don't you cut grass for a living? Why would you want to stop making money? Typically the landscapers on LI when the growing season ends they transition to the snow removal aspect of their business, a continuation of landscaping if you will mike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 The 12z NAM is already starting to drop the northern stream in at 84 hours so that's a good sign that the quicker phase may not be that farfetched. It looks typically over amplified as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Not a bad look paul especially for those inland thats for sure. Little more digging throughout the week and who knows maybe some notable snows for even the immediate metro areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted October 27, 2014 Author Share Posted October 27, 2014 12Z GFS went a little nuts with qpf. N NJ through W SNE, 0.5" -1"+ qpf, and borderline 850s going to favorable....verbatim one hell of a solution for S NY State, W SNE, and possibly some in N NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 850`s at 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Hr 132 is snow for the metro area. Lol nice hit for the Hudson valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Rain to wet snow. Even to NYC on the GFS. Just north, is a wet snow paste bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Do we slowly go back to the more wrapped up solutions from a few days ago. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 12z GFS Snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Check out the Sunday AM lows, as the GFS see snow on the ground . Low and Middle 20`s not too far away . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 The fact that our progressive model the GFS is amped like this is notable. Would love to see the ECMWF later this afternoon to see what it says. Im going to stop short on saying accumulating snows for the immediate NYC area and surrounding suburbs. My gf is rockland county though may be getting some snow out of this though if you take this GFS run seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 As modeled, this is an inverted trough type scenario. We're likely to see some wild swings the next few days or see it completely dissapear as time goes on. I still give this an outside chance of phasing earlier and cutting off to our southwest. Then instead of potential snow we would be looking at more heavy rain and wind with midler conditions. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I first posted in the Banter thread last week about this potential. It's funny how quickly it was dismissed, not so much in this forum but especially up in New England. If you look at the 06z GFS, the surface never drops below freezing unless you're well north and west, more than say 50 miles NW of the city. With that being said, 850's are definitly cold enough to support a car topper. Dismissing this event more than five days out, is just as bad, if not worse, than calling for a big hit from a Nor' Easter. Clearly the synoptic setup is primed with all the right ingredients, for a big storm; the issue here is timing. And when it comes down to just timing, it's much better to just be a silent observer than begin making predictions on a specific outcome more than five days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Anything more than a car topper could cause some significant damage. Most of the area trees are still 85-90% leafed. The three maples in my yard have just begun to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 How long before this starts getting hyped on facebook (if it hasn't already)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 How long before this starts getting hyped on facebook (if it hasn't already)? In about 30 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 How long before this starts getting hyped on facebook (if it hasn't already)? Good idea. I'll start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Biggest Euro run of the season so far has initialized, I will do some limited PBP if anything significant happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Anything more than a car topper could cause some significant damage. Most of the area trees are still 85-90% leafed. The three maples in my yard have just begun to change. its a no brainer what damage would occur as the October 2011 storm is a perfect analog and the power companies and towns have done very little to get the trees far enough away from the power lines ............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Hoping this storm doesnt produce snow anywhere close to NYC. I know many have said this but it doesnt go well for a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Maybe far N&W zones get something and the elevated areas but honestly I highly doubt we would see any frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Hoping this storm doesnt produce snow anywhere close to NYC. I know many have said this but it doesnt go well for a good winter.We got snow last year on November 12th and it worked out very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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