MJO812 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Upton is on board IF THE 00Z EUROVERIFIES HOWEVER...ACCUMULATING SNOW FORMUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Looks like greater than a half inch for all of SNE if I reading that right? I only can judge by precip probs so it isn't apples to apples, but it looks rather juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The euro ensemble doesn't seem that different at 500mb from the op. It closes a big circulation just SW of us. If you want snow, you want to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Upton is on board They mention the possibility of accumulating snow. That doesn't mean they are "on board". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 BOX talked about the AO, but what you see if you looked closer was the ridge over Greenland. Right now our disturbance is moving just east of the north coast of AK. That ridge in Greenland allows it to dive SSE behind a developing ULL east of Hudson Bay. So while it is not a true blocking ridge, it might be doing its thing in other ways and allowing this to dig significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 It's very important to remember all the moving parts. It sounds like some are getting excited, but we should always know the caveats at day4.5- 5. It's not as much of a fantasy like day 7 and beyond, but we've had some great modeled storms this far out, only to change. It certainly is interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 That run would be 6-10 north of Brockton and a few inches south of there Can I sign up for that now? Leaf raking can wait another week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 Euro ens crush us. Media seems to be ignoring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Euro ens crush us. Media seems to be ignoring I wouldn't say ignoring, it's just that 4-5 days away from an event, MUCH can happen...we all know that. By Thursday, this idea of a Major Storm, Snow or otherwise could be distant memory??? If by later Tomorrow and Thursday, if this still looks to be a Threat, you will see the Media jumping on this like Crazy. Plenty of time for the Media Hype if things continue to look Ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 There shouldn't be honking so far out. Pump the brakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Euro ens crush us. Media seems to be ignoring ECMWF Ensemble - 120 hr forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Just looking back at the trend in the last 4 Euro ensemble runs.......the trend at the 500 level has been quite noticeable in the direction of diving the trough further south and now last night's run even closed the darn thing off just southwest of the region. Very interesting to say the least. Will see if the trend continues in the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 There shouldn't be honking so far out. Pump the brakes.Horns should be honking.. But cars should still be in middle lane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Maybe at 1000 feet you could be honking a little louder. I'm still cautious on surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Well, It was something some discussed here yesterday, If we could get the ULL to dig further south and capture some of that moisture out of the south instead of it running out ahead and pulling the ULL with it off shore in a trough type fashion, That we could get this type of scenario, But being the first model run that has this, and being 120 hrs out, You really have to stay on the side caution until we can get a few more runs of the Euro to hold and get some others on board as well, The GFS is a pancake with this right now, But that's not a bad thing for the GFS this far out, But it has raised the bar of interest that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Are there more or less leaves on trees than 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Are there more or less leaves on trees than 11way less up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 Maybe at 1000 feet you could be honking a little louder. I'm still cautious on surface temps.Oct 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Maybe at 1000 feet you could be honking a little louder. I'm still cautious on surface temps. "If" We can get this to crank up south of the region, I think we could dynamically cool the column even to the coast enough for snow if we can get this to track close enough to the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I would like to see the western ridge axis near Idaho instead of the Montana/Dakota border. It would have given the northern stream wave more time to drop in and we could have phased further southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Leaves won't be much of an issue here as most got blown off last weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Are there more or less leaves on trees than 11 I would say less sassafras and maple, those are completely bare now. Seems like more oak - they're always later, but they seem to be hanging on tougher this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 Are there more or less leaves on trees than 11Oaks are loaded and have same. All other species way less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 "If" We can get this to crank up south of the region, I think we could dynamically cool the column even to the coast enough for snow if we can get this to track close enough to the region.Yes, I almost added that. But if it isn't cranking, then I would think it would be mostly light rain for many, not scattered flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I would like to see the western ridge axis near Idaho instead of the Montana/Dakota border. It would have given the northern stream wave more time to drop in and we could have phased further southwest. Phase further SW floods lower levels with warmer air too. There is less room for error as compared to a normal winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Oaks are loaded and have same. All other species way less I'm losing a good amount of oak leaves and so are you. I still have leaves, but they are coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Thread the needle type this early, That is why elevated areas still have a better chance at snow then the coast and coastal plain, Its not like we have a 1036mb high over QUE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I think Tippy ran the Euro out of his basement no? But that being said. For those of you who want to get a snowstorm this weekend, the Euro run is exactly what you want or something of that flavor. Biggest model run of the fall coming up at 12 z. lol Remember the rule: 1 run is an abberation, 2 is a coincedence, and 3 is a trend. Need the Euro's solution to hold for a couple more runs before anyone should begin to get excited. Movement of other models toward an EC solution would be cause for excitement It's very important to remember all the moving parts. It sounds like some are getting excited, but we should always know the caveats at day4.5- 5. It's not as much of a fantasy like day 7 and beyond, but we've had some great modeled storms this far out, only to change. It certainly is interesting though. I hope these moving parts can cause things to be delayed to Sunday so I can enjoy seeing something come down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Nearly fully foliated trees down this way, though '11 only produced a few sloppy inches and wasnt an issue with respect to trees and power at least not right along the immediate shore. If this comes to fruition I imagine another big gradient right along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Just talking model output, Jerry's antecedent conditions are pretty darn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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