ORH_wxman Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Jan 2000 all over again. We'll be talking about 11/2/14 for decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 What an ignorant comment. He clearly doesn't understand what a cutting edge science meteorology is, and just how chaotic the atmosphere is. It's akin to claiming that he is an awful coach because he hasn't won a SB in a decade. Yeah, well it's a common thinking practice among the public. Another story for another day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Yeah I'm sure RGEM qpf is overdone some..but you can cut that in half and still get a solid event. Weird to be talking "middle of the goal posts" and have it not totally suck at the moment, no? I'm still not in, but I've cracked the lube and drizzled it around the moving parts just in case. Got waffles to make in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 RAP is finally starting to come on board...it has been stubbornly east (which bothered me since its often west)...but it now hits immediate E MA coast hard, but still not as far west as the other guidance earlier. But its an improvement from basically only hitting the Cape with appreciable precip in its last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Really looked like a few light flakes 2 hours ago here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 We'll be talking about 11/2/14 for decades. We are already KGAY going for the Century Mark! Love it. Love these nowcast scenerios Watching the dynamics come together is fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 RAP is finally starting to come on board...it has been stubbornly east (which bothered me since its often west)...but it now hits immediate E MA coast hard, but still not as far west as the other guidance earlier. But its an improvement from basically only hitting the Cape with appreciable precip in its last several runs. Two models doing a couple of unexpected things. RAP shifting west for once, and the RGEM with a sizeable shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Oh well. Close but no cigar here. Congrats to those who get in on the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Really looked like a few light flakes 2 hours ago here. Probably was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 RAP is finally starting to come on board...it has been stubbornly east (which bothered me since its often west)...but it now hits immediate E MA coast hard, but still not as far west as the other guidance earlier. But its an improvement from basically only hitting the Cape with appreciable precip in its last several runs. Yeah the HRRR and the RAP both have started ticking w. Razor thin edge here between bust and reasonable forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Yeah the HRRR and the RAP both have started ticking w. Razor thin edge here between bust and reasonable forecast. One of those things where 15 miles means flurries to 1/4S+/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Yeah the HRRR and the RAP both have started ticking w. Razor thin edge here between bust and reasonable forecast. it is bizarre to be seeing these shifts so close to an event...usually its thermal profiles or something we're watching this close in...checking for those trends. But not seeing if the storm will jump 50 miles west 6 hours before it starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 One of those things where 15 miles means flurries to 1/4S+/ yeah or -RASN and S+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Really looked like a few light flakes 2 hours ago here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 RAP soundings get slightly unstable above 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 yeah or -RASN and S+ Got the old four slice model ready? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Alright whatever but don't be surprised by now cast west shifts if it holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 it is bizarre to be seeing these shifts so close to an event...usually its thermal profiles or something we're watching this close in...checking for those trends. But not seeing if the storm will jump 50 miles west 6 hours before it starts. models are still trying to figure out the complicated short wave situation...but to be happening 6-12 hours out is a bit "interesting". When you get a good frontogenetical setup with that back-bent warm front look at 700 the good forcing tends to be a little further west than models would indicate so perhaps they are starting to account for the setup a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 algorithm? Bannable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 This thing should look pretty awesome on satellite tomorrow. Tippy may want to run to Michaels arts and crafts to get a 24"/30" frame for the enhanced WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Got the old four slice model ready? I'm going with the industrial 10 slicer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 I do think that s/w in NY state (or was in NY state) also is helping somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Wave heights near 18 feet with NNW wind gusting 47 kt just off VA. Beach: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Pretty big shift left on the 0z CMC from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 look at that sick band BACK near millis. what sort of forcing is going on there? be nice If temps and dews would fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 This thing should look pretty awesome on satellite tomorrow. Tippy may want to run to Michaels arts and crafts to get a 24"/30" frame for the enhanced WV. Water vapor already looks pretty ominous. I'm pretty anxious to see how the radar actually responds over the next 4-6 hours...so much will depend on whether we are getting hit with 30+ dbz vs like 20 dbz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 The RAP goes nuts tomorrow. If only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 look at that sick band BACK near millis. what sort of forcing is going on there? It just started pouring again here, and the temp has dropped to 36° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 This is fun like mid winter every one up !! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 This winter will be special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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