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Oct 31- Nov 2nd Storm Disco

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

I find the overt conservatism as much a defensive mechanism as it is almost humorous...

 

You got a -3SD mid level temperature anomaly combined with 130kt 500mb jet core cutting just quintessentially S by 1.5D lon/lat and it's 'things look better for at least some flakes in the air...'  Sure, if you got novacaine on the brain.  

 

Jesus, we'd need a comet impact around here to gain justifiable attention.   OR, folks could just admit to being excited, in equal measure to what is implied there.

 

Anyway, the next 7 days of stuff is all heavily rooted in teleconnector support and I have no reason to believe that even deeper solutions are not going to verify. I find the weaker systems to be the at odds, with governing signal, and I don't have any compunctions about seeing a solid snow storm for everyone away from ocean influence out of this weekend.   If it doesn't happen?  hang - me.  I've always called these things the way I see them and let the chips fall where they may, and have a pretty darn good batting average at that.  We'll see... 

 

My only caveat is too much progressive character to the flow.  There seems to be a lack of -NAO type blocking down wind of our lat/lon in general, and that's really allowing the deepest amplitude to foist east as though completely unlimited to planetary wave dynamics.  See ya!   You're biggest issue here is two fold:

 

1)  As usual... models key in on some weak impulse out over the Gulf stream, and then tries to "steal" thermodynamic power from being infused into the best mechanical forcing when it arrive via that ridiculously powerful jet max deal... Heh -- that's usually (but not always) false, and you see future guidance' tend to start favoring the western solution.  Classic kink back mock Norlun set up with these runs showing the internal turmoil over what in the hell to do with all that... 

 

2)  Speed of deep layer trough translation; in fact, you slow the whole of that thing down even six hours inside of the pan of that depression and you get a decent attack on eastern sections.  And mind you ... for me SSTs are not likely to be an issue with that sort of system, because upon correcting for a more western dominant lower llv vortex response, you got flow there that N with moderate QPF.  That's got the old lock the CF into Brockton look to it to me.  Dec 2003 did that.  But even I am reluctant to go too detailed at 130 horus... 

 

If I did not see the governing/surrounding mass fields in support for a big perturbation/event from the OV-MA-NE regions some 3 or 4 days ago, then turn into modeling runs like today's TREND ... I would not be this direct.  But from where I am sitting this potential is being wantonly understated.   

 

Not predicting the end of the world... not even close... But can assure you, what is signaled there is well more than "flakes in the air" by a substantially large margin.  whatever.  

 

More southern stream involvement is still somewhat of a wild card, btw..

I'm excited.  I've waited 7 months for a storm to track.  Accumulating snow on Halloween is rare outside of the mountain summits.  Here we have a decent chance for flakes in the air for a large part of the northeast and an outside chance at accumulating snow for many.  This threat has a high ceiling even if the likelihood of any kind of snow is still relatively low.  Any true winter weather enthusiast should be excited.

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ice1972

ice1972

Posted
Posted

I'm excited. I've waited 7 months for a storm to track. Accumulating snow on Halloween is rare outside of the mountain summits. Here we have a decent chance for flakes in the air for a large part of the northeast and an outside chance at accumulating snow for many. This threat has a high ceiling even if the likelihood of any kind of snow is still relatively low. Any true winter weather enthusiast should be excited.

It's all fun and games until your power is out for 8 days.....October 2011....FTW and FTL.....

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Max

Max

Posted
Posted

I wonder how often Tip has been gung-ho on an event while at the same time Kevin has downplayed an event? And in all those times, did we get hit by big snows when this occurs? Just some food for thought. Don't know if this is not on topic or not. A mod can move my comment or delete it if I'm off topic by a lot. 

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

GYX on the verge of honking.  When it is a deeper Euro vs flat progressive GFS I am leaning Euro.  Lets see how the other models lean over the next day or so.

 

MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY
ON DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH. ONE THING MODELS ALL
AGREE ON IS STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY.
THE LATEST EURO CLOSES OFF THE LOW EVEN FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE VIGOROUS STRONG JET DIGGING SEWD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE LIFTING IT NEWD TOWARD THE GULF OF
MAINE FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, OTHER MODELS KEEP TROUGH MORE OPEN,
PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER N. THE PROBLEM MODELS ARE HAVING IS TRYING
TO PHASE TWO SEPARATE STRONG S/WAVES THAT BOTH PACK A LOT OF
ENERGY. TIMING OF ENDING PRECIPITATION SUNDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT
SO HEDGED FOR NOW AND RAISED POPS AND HAD TO STRONGLY CONSIDER
EURO SOLUTION. EURO WOULD KEEP SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION GOING
THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS WOULD HAVE CLEARING FOR SUNDAY DUE TO
ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS APPEAR MUCH TOO WARM FOR TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONSIDERING DYNAMIC COOLING AND COLD LOW
LEVEL DRAINAGE OCCURRING INTO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST. HAD TO LOWER TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES FOR EACH PERIOD OVER
THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL START OUT AS RAIN BUT CHANGE
TO SNOW LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THEN EXPECT THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE
COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT ALL PRECIPITATION TYPE
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT ARE UP IN
THE AIR SINCE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM STILL UNCERTAIN.

FOR GUIDANCE, STARTED WITH THE SUPERBLEND BUT HAD TO MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD TO REFLECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

BTV just cemented their place in skiers' minds with the mention of skiing in this morning's AFD...man that's sweet lol.

---------

Given recent trends for systems to become more cutoff and closed...for prevailing westerly follow...and models showing a developing/amplifying ridge across the Central Plains...will trend toward the European model (ecmwf) solution. This supports chance/likely probability of precipitation late Friday night into Saturday...as 850 to 500mb moisture associated with developing trough increases from west to east across our region. Additional precipitation...mainly in the form of snow would be likely across our central/eastern section Sat night into Sunday...with a sharp precipitation/accumulation gradient expected. Very limited quantitative precipitation forecast/snow would occur along and west of the cpv if the European model (ecmwf) solution verified...with some upslope enhancement for the western slopes possible. Prognosticated 850 mb temperatures drop between -8 and -10c...while 925mb temperatures are <0c by 00z Sunday with soundings showing the freezing level between 200 and 400 feet...supporting snow in the valleys away from Lake Champlain. Given warm ground temperatures and marginal bl profiles...not expecting much accumulation in the slv/cpv. Temperatures will struggle in the 30s Sat/Sunday in the valleys with brisk north winds. If you have plans in the mountains this weekend...plan for middle winter conditions...with temperatures only in the teens and 20s with gusty northwest winds...and accumulating snow...especially Sat into Sunday. Too early for accumulations but I would have the rock skis on standby this weekend...if you are looking for the 1st turns of the season along The Spine of the Green Mountains from Jay Peak to Mansfield to Killington.

-----------

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

GYX on the verge of honking.  When it is a deeper Euro vs flat progressive GFS I am leaning Euro.  Lets see how the other models lean over the next day or so.

 

MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY

ON DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH. ONE THING MODELS ALL

AGREE ON IS STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY.

THE LATEST EURO CLOSES OFF THE LOW EVEN FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE

CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE VIGOROUS STRONG JET DIGGING SEWD

FROM THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE LIFTING IT NEWD TOWARD THE GULF OF

MAINE FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, OTHER MODELS KEEP TROUGH MORE OPEN,

PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER N. THE PROBLEM MODELS ARE HAVING IS TRYING

TO PHASE TWO SEPARATE STRONG S/WAVES THAT BOTH PACK A LOT OF

ENERGY. TIMING OF ENDING PRECIPITATION SUNDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT

SO HEDGED FOR NOW AND RAISED POPS AND HAD TO STRONGLY CONSIDER

EURO SOLUTION. EURO WOULD KEEP SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION GOING

THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS WOULD HAVE CLEARING FOR SUNDAY DUE TO

ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE.

ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE

AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS APPEAR MUCH TOO WARM FOR TEMPERATURES

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONSIDERING DYNAMIC COOLING AND COLD LOW

LEVEL DRAINAGE OCCURRING INTO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM OFF THE

COAST. HAD TO LOWER TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES FOR EACH PERIOD OVER

THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL START OUT AS RAIN BUT CHANGE

TO SNOW LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THEN EXPECT THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE

COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT ALL PRECIPITATION TYPE

SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT ARE UP IN

THE AIR SINCE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM STILL UNCERTAIN.

FOR GUIDANCE, STARTED WITH THE SUPERBLEND BUT HAD TO MAKE

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD TO REFLECT THE

POTENTIAL FOR FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON.

 

Quite the weenie run up here, NW Maine would see 12"+ if it verified

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Chrisrotary12

Chrisrotary12

Posted
Posted

I think Tippy ran the Euro out of his basement no? 

 

But that being said. For those of you who want to get a snowstorm this weekend, the Euro run is exactly what you want or something of that flavor. 

 

Biggest model run of the fall coming up at 12 z.  lol

 

Remember the rule: 1 run is an abberation, 2 is a coincedence, and 3 is a trend.  Need the Euro's solution to hold for a couple more runs before anyone should begin to get excited. 

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