CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Jesus the CCB gets to like ORH on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Wow, RGEM is on board with tomorrow AM eastern MA hammer job. Big shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 It's coming.....we celebrate Kevin's birthday and hope he gets in on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 just a general question ... what is the mechanism / reasoning for this westward trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 The RGEM may be further west than the NAM...I was going to toss the NAM, but now the RGEM changes everything. That's actually a model I trust somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Looks like the game may be white tomorrow in foxboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Wth. Was expecting a few gusty rain showers tomorrow am. Now it looks like Foxboro may be white. Nice This could be our revenge for October 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 What's causing some models to shift west by a lot so close to the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 just a general question ... what is the mechanism / reasoning for this westward trend? There's a multidude of variables, but often the latent heat release in extremely deep systems is the primary mechanism for pumping up downstream heights..and its a variable the models handle pretty poorly. But there could be other variables like the vorticity being stronger than models thought or a jet streak being more impressive, etc, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 It seems to be deepening further south so a NW track is plausible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 The RGEM may be further west than the NAM...I was going to toss the NAM, but now the RGEM changes everything. That's actually a model I trust somewhat. Can't even call it a trend. That's just an out and out jump in every sense of the word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 It's such an anomalous ULL, like -7SD. Pretty much unprecedented in terms of how cold it is. You can get some weird stuff when that moves over the gulfstream and feedbacks like Will said from latent heat, jet streaks enhanced etc can happen. Also, I think the s/w in NY also is allowing this to come W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Can't even call it a trend. That's just an out and out jump in every sense of the word. Surprised it did that. It was sort of keeping me at pause, but might be hammer time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 The RGEM may be further west than the NAM...I was going to toss the NAM, but now the RGEM changes everything. That's actually a model I trust somewhat.close in usually money, nowcasting does indicate best EPVg is negatively tilted south of NE. This is coming west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Can't even call it a trend. That's just an out and out jump in every sense of the word. lol, You left a left (westward shift) in the AFD, Smart move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 It's such an anomalous ULL, like -7SD. Pretty much unprecedented in terms of how cold it is. You can get some weird stuff when that moves over the gulfstream and feedbacks like Will said from latent heat, jet streaks enhanced etc can happen. Also, I think the s/w in NY also is allowing this to come W. You and Will said it, latent heat is something modeling handles poorly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 There's a multidude of variables, but often the latent heat release in extremely deep systems is the primary mechanism for pumping up downstream heights..and its a variable the models handle pretty poorly. But there could be other variables like the vorticity being stronger than models thought or a jet streak being more impressive, etc, etc. diabatic heating ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 lol, You left a left (westward shift) in the AFD, Smart move Based on the Euro progs, not CMC. Ha. But caution flags were raised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 I need to see the GFS hold and then I'm onboard for some snow, RGEM caving was pretty much what I needed to see to be confident in some snow here in Boston. Need to watch closely over the next few hours, wouldn't be totally surprised if I'm issuing an update overnight for some snow in my eastern zones(I forecast for all of CT). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Surprised it did that. It was sort of keeping me at pause, but might be hammer time. I might lose it if our watches end up right for the wrong reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 i mean, that RGEM run is like a game-changer. It's easy to excuse a big NAM run...even this close in. But the RGEM is rarely this wrong 12 hours out...hardly ever. Areas near BOS could het advisory snows in less than 12 hours and nobody has a clue. Belichick might look like a genius not even a week after his silly comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 What I was thinking about on my drive home was the first low was weaker than progged. It didn't sweep the baroclinicity as far east. allowing for the path of least resistance being closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Yeah I thought about the BB comments on the way home. Not that I would pump the tires up on this aftn, but it seemed like nobody left the door open for even a little snow. Oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 What does the westward most Lon look like to you guys if this keeps bombing ahead of schedule from the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Well the GFS just started running...here we go to see if we get any more support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 i mean, that RGEM run is like a game-changer. It's easy to excuse a big NAM run...even this close in. But the RGEM is rarely this wrong 12 hours out...hardly ever. Areas near BOS could het advisory snows in less than 12 hours and nobody has a clue. Belichick might look like a genius not even a week after his silly comments. In Bill we trust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 I might lose it if our watches end up right for the wrong reasons. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 GFS threw a bit more QPF west, held serve I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 good luck up there may this one be the first of many for the east coast this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 lol Definitely glad I went an extra row of counties on the warning though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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