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Oct 31- Nov 2nd Storm Disco


Damage In Tolland

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m

Look a little lower like 700, although 500 can work in some cases.

700 looks ok for E mass from like 5-9 am.  At least looking back at past storms the Lift doesn't seem that intense to justify the high QPF ...unless that is just the nam being the nam.

 

it looks intense from say Bath, Maine to Eastport.

 

Scott , What cases is 500 a good idea to look. Because 5H VV's look better..more widespread  to me over E mass than 7H

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700 looks ok for E mass from like 5-9 am.  At least looking back at past storms the Lift doesn't seem that intense to justify the high QPF ...unless that is just the nam being the nam.

 

it looks intense from say Bath, Maine to Eastport.

 

My son goes to UMO, Says its ripping up there

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This storm is a real Freak.  Is it not

 

radar not lookin that bad south of long island.

 

Most models show some lift approaching Se mass by 3 am or so

 

You can see it building and filling some to the NW over LI/NJ, Snowing in central NYS as well with it moving to the NW

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700 looks ok for E mass from like 5-9 am. At least looking back at past storms the Lift doesn't seem that intense to justify the high QPF ...unless that is just the nam being the nam.

it looks intense from say Bath, Maine to Eastport.

Scott , What cases is 500 a good idea to look. Because 5H VV's look better..more widespread to me over E mass than 7H

Well don't forget things are tilted as you move up in the atmosphere. This is why the 700 low and lift is east of 500mb and lift etc. so that's why 500 lift is further west in a case like this. 500mb lift can be good in a case where the atmosphere is relatively warm and 500mb lift would coincide with more favorable snow growth temps. In my example 700 temps may only be like -6C. A bit too warm for good snow growth. I think in a case like this, you are going to have natural deep lift from 700-500mb so it's probably ok to look at. 600 may be ideal but that's never a parameter on web based weather sites.

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Sent you guys a tweet, nice AFD . BOX too.

umm coordination message FTL

There is now an uncertain risk for the heavy rainfall that will start overnight to mix with and change to a wet snow especially in parts of Eastern and Central Massachusetts north and west of Boston. Factors regarding the snowfall include:

1.) Where does a heavy band of precipitation develop as the storm intensifies and does that allow for cooling for snow and for the snow to accumulate.

2.) The ground temperatures for any snow to accumulate.

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umm coordination message FTL

There is now an uncertain risk for the heavy rainfall that will start overnight to mix with and change to a wet snow especially in parts of Eastern and Central Massachusetts north and west of Boston. Factors regarding the snowfall include:

1.) Where does a heavy band of precipitation develop as the storm intensifies and does that allow for cooling for snow and for the snow to accumulate.

2.) The ground temperatures for any snow to accumulate.

 

Referring to the update.

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