powderfreak Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I have so many problems with what I was handed. If we think impacts are going to be significant from wet snow, then put that in the forecast. We had zero snow in the forecast for all of Cumberland County, yet a winter storm watch. I'd honestly rather jump from nothing to warning/advisory than have a watch out with no accumulations or 30% PoP. The update you see now is basically without looking at anything, but just getting the forecast closer to the headlines. Yeah I wasn't necessarily bashing the forecast but glad you saw what I did. A winter storm watch with literally no mention of snow besides a 30-50% chance of rain or snow on Sunday. I think when they went with a WSW they should've included snow in the forecast. The public (me) looks at that, sees the watch but checks the actual forecast and thinks it's 100% rain, the snow chances must not pertain to the area or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 That's what I was curious about earlier on the post. I understood the threat you all over there are seeing but wondering why the grids didn't have any update to them to match the headlines. I am here near BXM and if things set up nice I look to be right on the edge of the serious band action. However like a lot of us have been saying. Boy this is very complex and models can't handle all of that and we are on the border line of short term to near term. This has to be for sure one of the most complex systems to develop and come close or hit Maine. I have no problem with the headline, but the grids should at least support it somewhat. It is a very tenuous situation though, where marginal coastal zones might struggle to snow or accumulate, while under the banding pounds if the GFS is right. That would probably be a very narrow stripe of plowable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I passed a field with about 25-30 herded up this AM (on private land) I think they know boundary lines. Tracking should be easier Sun afternoon with new snowcover although they will probably be bedded up. I am rooting for the GFS to score a coup for once for you Maniacs That's awesome. Too bad we can't hunt on Sunday's here in Maine. I might head out earlier Monday since it will be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Snow in Franconia Notch Oh yeah it's all snow in the mountains. Been below freezing sounding all day. Even 0.1-0.2" QPF will bring accums in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Yeah I wasn't necessarily bashing the forecast but glad you saw what I did. A winter storm watch with literally no mention of snow besides a 30-50% chance of rain or snow on Sunday. I think when they went with a WSW they should've included snow in the forecast. The public (me) looks at that, sees the watch but checks the actual forecast and thinks it's 100% rain, the snow chances must not pertain to the area or something. I'm actually surprised we haven't taken harsher criticism here and on social media. You guys are smart enough here to see the problem with our morning forecast. But publicly and with EMs we look silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Just got word it's snowing at Stowe right to the base area...MVL ASOS showing -RN though at 750ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Sorry for the mby questions. Congrats to the winners. I'm not too excited for this area as the best of the forcing and lift stays east of us. In addition, the low levels are rather warm with readings in the low to mid 40s. As such, I think this is mostly a cold, miserable sheet rain for most of the area. 2K could flip to a little snow later this evening, which could yield a coating to an inch for those locales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Canadian regional doesn't agree with the GFS as well.its been abysmal recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Looks pretty damp right now even at elevation. Figured it would be white up top at Cannon with snow in the notch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 There's a sale at Penney's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I have no problem with the headline, but the grids should at least support it somewhat. It is a very tenuous situation though, where marginal coastal zones might struggle to snow or accumulate, while under the banding pounds if the GFS is right. That would probably be a very narrow stripe of plowable snow. Oh I completely agree and believe the headlines are perfect. Best fit in a situation like this. I see your shift came on to a slight headache. Glad for you now the general public & EM's can see something that makes a little more sense. We all are smart (per se) to know whats up. Tricky forecast and your right if the GFS verifies someone could easily get slammed. And for sure will be plowing. HAHA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 A lot of 12z NAM bufkit soundings showing wind advisory criteria up here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 GGEM wants nothing to do with the 2nd system in SNE...not a surprise given the RGEM didn't have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 1, 2014 Author Share Posted November 1, 2014 GFS going to be wrong . Adding confusion instead of helping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Looks pretty damp right now even at elevation. Figured it would be white up top at Cannon with snow in the notch. Look at the radar, it's light stuff. I could see flakes on the Stowe summit cam but nothing that would come close to accumulating at any speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Too bad this isn't 24 hours later. By now we'd know the euro verdict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 RAP, NAM, and new RPM really hit ORH and perhaps up into interior E/NE MA pretty good late this afternoon and evening with a period of heavy wet snow...GFS didn't want to keep the lift around. I don't like those models being on their own...esp with the RGEM not agreeing. Tough forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Too bad this isn't 24 hours later. By now we'd know the euro verdict. I know, that's going to be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Almost looks like an elevated bright band setting up inland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Almost looks like an elevated bright band setting up inland... I bet we see a lot of that...anyone know what elevations the base 0.5 scan from BOX hits at various spots in SNE? What height are we looking at over BOS, ORH, BDL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Almost looks like an elevated bright band setting up inland... makes sense, radar beam is ~3k - 4k ft up .. matches up well with modeled freezing lvl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 GFS going to be wrong . Adding confusion instead of helping I know, why is this thread still here..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 That band from CT to NEMA is what to watch. That's a good orientation along the mid level front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 We continue to cool here in Brunswick. High was 43F with gusty winds this morning. Now down to 41.7F and a dew of 36F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 well Scooter here"s your trop descending, thanks to Sammy Lillo. LOL at the origin of that air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Swirl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 1, 2014 Author Share Posted November 1, 2014 That band from CT to NEMA is what to watch. That's a good orientation along the mid level front.We're going to pray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 SwirlGiant cinnamon bun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Giant cinnamon bun Daddy's gonna take a little bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 AVL with 6 inches. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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