CT Rain Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Which is precisely why high winds may be the big deal here I don't really see much that shows a damaging wind threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Condescend much? Weenie this. Well I don't know why you referred to me as calling you a simpleton. There are many who view the board and don't post. I'm just clarifying to those people that there are other solutions at play given similar H5 setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Exactly and when you have a cut-off overhead there's not much Vorticity advection lol You are being condescending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Some get very touchy over this day 5-6 stuff. It could go both ways, right now it's not being modeled at the surface. As 40/70 often says, it's a shame we don't live at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Some get very touchy over this day 5-6 stuff. We can't discuss things anymore if it gets in the way of snow agenda. I'm being as neutral as I can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 I don't really see much that shows a damaging wind threat.Theres more that shows that than accumulating snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Some get very touchy over this day 5-6 stuff. It could go both ways, right now it's not being modeled at the surface. As 40/70 often says, it's a shame we don't live at H5. hopefully it goes back to that awesome look of the other day of a wicked good upslope event. Lots of the analogs were great for you. I'd rather discuss possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Theres more that shows that than accumulating snow I haven't seen any reasonable people get excited about accumulating snow or destructive winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 We can't discuss things anymore if it gets in the way of snow agenda. I'm being as neutral as I can be.Ok Ron Washington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Some get very touchy over this day 5-6 stuff. It could go both ways, right now it's not being modeled at the surface. As 40/70 often says, it's a shame we don't live at H5. Early snow is serious business on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 I haven't seen any reasonable people get excited about accumulating snow or destructive winds.I haven't seen anyone talk about destruction or hurricane conditions. Just 55-60 knotters .. Enough to cause some problems and open shelters due to the cold and no power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Sorry .. this sounds like a down spin. truth? "500 low over your head can be some CU and a few flakes too" sure! In April, when ULLs rot and there are no 110kt jet cores ripping into the underbelly right through climate central, ripping a frontogenic potential (not to mention) out of hades it's self. Not for me. The surface dictions are incorrect and the QPF is under modeled as an almost immediate correction requirement. we cant discuss this for fear of being snowstorm mongers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Ok Ron Washington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Yeah, there's no DPVA here at all... move right along.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Yeah, there's no DPVA here at all... move right along.. The one on the right is a little bigger then the one on the left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Yeah, there's no DPVA here at all... move right along.. Well that isn't a cutoff. Again I have no idea how this got spun into some sort of weenie argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 hopefully it goes back to that awesome look of the other day of a wicked good upslope event. Lots of the analogs were great for you. I'd rather discuss possibilities.I'm out of town for the weekend so I've got no horse in the race...personally it goes both ways, would love to come back on Tuesday to snow but would also not want to miss a sweet event. The H5 progs are pretty wild, but I do trust the models enough that there's something missing right now that isn't causing the real potential to hit the surface. As we discussed earlier, I think instability showers changing to snow showers with the core overhead is a good bet right now. Those cold troughs swinging through the Lakes region this time of year, entraining some moisture from the high delta-Ts, then moving directly over New England...I picture a shredded radar with maybe an area or two of more organized stuff amid numerous showers, lake bands, stuff sparked over the terrain but able to carry all the way to the coast with mid-level support...all the while the p-type radar goes from green to almost all blue cellular stuff. A few spots picking up an inch or so under the better showers. That to me is what I'd lean towards at this point. Still freakin' sweet cause I'm on the most should see flakes train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 In any event .. of course this could totally miss... My own point of contention is that ignoring the heavier impact potential too willfully isn't a very sound forecast philosophy. I'll leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Well that isn't a cutoff. Again I have no idea how this got spun into some sort of weenie argument. I'm not arguing with anyone... (but I'm not sure you meant me...?) Heads down in code all day at work... Come home, got impressed by a lot of products; preceded to a party policed blogosphere to the extent that would make the soup-Nazi envious, and decided to point out that's a bit contrived the way it comes off as "too" conservative. I don't care about that other stuff -- whatever it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I'm out of town for the weekend so I've got no horse in the race...personally it goes both ways, would love to come back on Tuesday to snow but would also not want to miss a sweet event. The H5 progs are pretty wild, but I do trust the models enough that there's something missing right now that isn't causing the real potential to hit the surface. As we discussed earlier, I think instability showers changing to snow showers with the core overhead is a good bet right now. Those cold troughs swinging through the Lakes region this time of year, entraining some moisture from the high delta-Ts, then moving directly over New England...I picture a shredded radar with maybe an area or two of more organized stuff amid numerous showers, lake bands, stuff sparked over the terrain but able to carry all the way to the coast with mid-level support...all the while the p-type radar goes from green to almost all blue cellular stuff. A few spots picking up an inch or so under the better showers. That to me is what I'd lean towards at this point. Still freakin' sweet cause I'm on the most should see flakes train. exactly what I picture,that's all I am saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 Flakes and snow showers and wind but no squalls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The one on the right is a little bigger then the one on the leftGrandma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Flakes and snow showers and wind but no squallspartly cloudy TCU sprinkles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 It's one of many we'll track this year. Pace yourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 I'm not arguing with anyone... (but I'm not sure you meant me...?) Heads down in code all day at work... Come home, got impressed by a lot of products; preceded to a party policed blogosphere to the extent that would make the soup-Nazi envious, and decided to point out that's a bit contrived the way it comes off as "too" conservative. I don't care about that other stuff -- whatever it is. Just ease back and enjoy the new Taylor Swift CD you picked up at Target today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 exactly what I picture,that's all I am saying Pretty huge win and plenty to be excited about for so early in the season. I also am impressed by the mid levels in general. Historically there have certainly been impressive troughs -- sure. But this is nothing to shake a stick at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I'm not arguing with anyone... (but I'm not sure you meant me...?) Heads down in code all day at work... Come home, got impressed by a lot of products; preceded to a party policed blogosphere to the extent that would make the soup-Nazi envious, and decided to point out that's a bit contrived the way it comes off as "too" conservative. I don't care about that other stuff -- whatever it is. No I didn't mean you. I'm well aware how his could be bigger, but I think you believe I'm downplaying it when I am not. I was just clarifying something about closed lows. Lol it's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Just ease back and enjoy the new Taylor Swift CD you picked up at Target today Are we out of the woods yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 In any event .. of course this could totally miss... My own point of contention is that ignoring the heavier impact potential too willfully isn't a very sound forecast philosophy. I'll leave it at that. Completely Understand where you're coming from Tip. Very good points IMO, and very Sound as usual(you are incredibly Intelligent/Experienced...most Impressive). I also get why people are trying to stay tempered as well...trying not to get to carried away/excited about "What Could Be?" As usual, there is lots that has to come together for this to be a "High Impact Event." And there is more of a Chance that it just "Doesn't!" And we are 5 days out still. As Tip pointed out, it's O.K. to talk about the "Heavier impact potential," and not be branded a Winnie either...if it's kept in some type of control. From this inexperienced poster(inexperienced with regard to most of your Degrees, knowledge and Professions), there does seem to be quite a bit of Potential within this set-up. And I think Tip is seeing all of this (as are alot of you as well), and he is just telling us what his gut is telling him could very well happen if these things come together like he thinks they should. Personally, I love the both sides of the coin discussion. Love hearing why it may not happen/come together. And why it could/should from guys like Typhoon Tip. Great info Fella's. JB has been posting on his site(I'm a member) about how he thinks the models should be correcting to more of a phased system since Saturday night...and how it "COULD" become a bigger event for the east coast. Hey, it's fun to have something to watch whatever happens. Glad to be along for the ride. :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 No I didn't mean you. I'm well aware how his could be bigger, but I think you believe I'm downplaying it when I am not. I was just clarifying something about closed lows. Lol it's all good. Yeah I should be more clear -- I used yours as an example in the sense of the royal you; as you , yous guys'... In all fairness, I didn't pay much attention to who said what, just the what... Btw folks, hard to ignore the indian summer potentially signaled later next week - ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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