Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 It really is too bad that model has been useless since like 2010.Sugarloaf started as snow, going to get smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 SREF snowfall total means : BOS 2" BVY 1.5" ASH 5" SFZ 2.5" IJD 1" BDL 1.5" ORH 5" FIT 5" PSM 3" ENE 5" PWM 4" WVL 6" IZG 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Actually the SREFS don't look that much different than the other models, it just seems to go to town with a colder profile in the first storm. It's got a good amount of snow right along the H85 freezing line, though the 540dm thickness lags back. It still misses with the second low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Sugarloaf started as snow, going to get smoked Yeah Advisory snow looks good there unless the Americans score a coup. Certainly cold enough to snow in all mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 12z NAM is east with the second wave, barely clips the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I thought the nam looked the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 It's actually a little west. Drunk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I thought the nam looked the same. I think it looks slightly west if anything at first glance, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 CCB for east coast mass....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Sref would offer up a few inches here. Pipe dream but probably 3 inches if it verified Starting to think at least flakes are possible here. This area will hold onto precip longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I think the snow chances in SNE are mostly about wave 1 this evening or even late afternoon. Wave 2 would be nice with the colder profile but it just looks too far east. There's an outside shot for wave 2 but I'd definitely be focusing more on wave 1 and if we can get some deep layer strong UVVs to start doing its thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 It has a more consolidated low @ 09z sunday. That's why. Pretty huge shift west, and slower. It looks like the cape would be awesome, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I think the snow chances in SNE are mostly about wave 1 this evening or even late afternoon. Wave 2 would be nice with the colder profile but it just looks too far east. There's an outside shot for wave 2 but I'd definitely be focusing more on wave 1 and if we can get some deep layer strong UVVs to start doing its thing. Elevation dependent though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I think the snow chances in SNE are mostly about wave 1 this evening or even late afternoon. Wave 2 would be nice with the colder profile but it just looks too far east. There's an outside shot for wave 2 but I'd definitely be focusing more on wave 1 and if we can get some deep layer strong UVVs to start doing its thing. I think even interior NE MA could get the chance late today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Elevation dependent though? Yes. But it may cool enough for the CP too of this lift goes hard enough. It's all about dynamics because we aren't starting with a very cold airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I think even interior NE MA could get the chance late today. We have a game from 1-4pm. Later than that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 We have a game from 1-4pm. Later than that? Yeah probably. Like Will said it depends on lift. But if it lingers after 22z then perhaps. It's such a nowcast deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Actually the SREFS don't look that much different than the other models, it just seems to go to town with a colder profile in the first storm. It's got a good amount of snow right along the H85 freezing line, though the 540dm thickness lags back. It still misses with the second low. not that it matters but the 2nd low doesn't miss on SREFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Congrats Lexington, South Carolina (outside of Columbia, not the mountains): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Lol Just going through all the sref products. They are so bullish its hard to believe. They haven't had a great track record in the past year, from what people have said. Keep that in mind. I'd be interested to see NAM bufkit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 There's like 2-3 SREF members inflating the mean with wave 2. Most miss or are meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Looking at satellite and radar trends, events are thus far transpiring pretty reasonably compared to the 00z and 06z NAM solutions re the first wave. Significant cloud top cooling taking place as far west as KABE in eastern Pa, and steady moderate cold rains have broken out over the the larger scope of that part of the MA, up through the NYC region. Should NAM performance continue at par, we should see this region gradually pivot up and overtake SNE east of the Berks (with some lop-over) during the day ... then decay as it attempts to move up into central NE east of the Greens of VT. The decay is in response to the more importent cyclogenesis that simply must occur for having so much mechanical/dynamic forcing moving off the Carolinas ... ultimately forced to then turn NNE along the western wall of the semi-permanent west Atlantic ridging. Said new pressure falls and associated mechanics damps this current producing wave, once that latter more earnest development gets underway. There is an aspect then, that may need some additional now-casting: How correctly measured/modeled is the geopotential heights between Bermuda and NS. Those could be under question as strong synoptic/embedded convective processing dumps latency down stream as this evolves. That "could" cause a bit of a western verification but more at something to watch for. Re p-type. Originally I thought regardless of modeled-derived thickness intervals that this is too warm for most. I am now somewhat intrigued at how many 32F DPs there are up here in interior eastern/western MA, and only colder NNW of here. Knowing that this integrated chill through 700mb level, heavier precipitation arrives a WB temp at the lower end of the T-TD. Combined with entraining that ever so slightly lowered theta-e air during moderate to heavier burst during the afternoon, certainly in the elevations above 900' or so I can now envision 34F parachutes. When exactly? Discrete look at sounding (BUFKIT) looks like dusk... but, there is a late trend here to cool the profile so that may take place sooner given to -2C at 850 on the Euro/NAM. An exciting system .. as others have noted, we are done with a solid nor' easter last week, now this one, and we can already see hints at trouble flow constructs in the future. This is more along the lines of what I thought would be our entry into winter, which relative to a warming climate signal over all, is a lowered temp/higher precip anomaly. The CPC PNA is showing a robust re-assertion of +PNA, and a predicted category 4 Nuri is western Pacific is going to be a solid dump right into a (as yet and most likely) AA response of the N Pac. Regardless of model depictions, which would undoubtedly need to change once the mid latitude register that uptake ... I see stormier times continuing/emerging. I'm also considering a nascent ENSO forcing together with multi-decadal polar field index mode being negative as canvas in some of that thinking, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 There's like 2-3 SREF members inflating the mean with wave 2. Most miss or are meh. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I was texting with Will and even BOS burbs could flip if we can linger the lift. HRRR tries to do so as 700 closes off. It's one of those deals where potential is there, but you need sustained deep lift or it's 37F rain. But it is not far fetched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I was texting with Will and even BOS burbs could flip if we can linger the lift. HRRR tries to do so as 700 closes off. It's one of those deals where potential is there, but you need sustained deep lift or it's 37F rain. But it is not far fetched. You think MQE area too? I'd imagine its tough SE of BOS even with a NNE wind direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 You think MQE area too? I'd imagine its tough SE of BOS Probably not if winds are like NNE. Need N or NNW. Also 850 temps are a hair cooler NW. There also may be a dryslot moving up towards the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Probably not if winds are like NNE. Need N or NNW. Also 850 temps are a hair cooler NW. There also may be a dryslot moving up towards the pike. Yeah that's going to be tough. The coastal front right now is draped from Quincy to Randolph on this wind direction right now on this wind direction. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few wet flakes here mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Cape Codder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 It doesn't look too hot south of the pike. Seems like obvious spots in ORH county/ NE MA, and down to BOS maybe as Scott suggested. I think our south of pike friends are too far.. well.. south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Cape Codder Wow that's impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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