TalcottWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Thundersnow and 2" just south of greensville sc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 That's not a surprise in SC. The soundings were darn cold and with that ULL death band there....#magic. I actually had to outlook chance mid snow in CLT, but that band sunk a little south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I'm wondering if places like ORH up to Monads flip to wet snow late this afternoon with round 1? The problem is that some guidance is hitting the lift pretty hard with this and others are pretty mundane with light precip. I don't think we get much with round 2...only Maine looks to get anything there.. I would think that's possible with the first round. I'm less optimistic about much further west than that. (wait---did I just express a qpf concern????). Snowing here in the Blue Ridge, ftw. I suspect I might have a bouncy flight into BDL tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I'm wondering if places like ORH up to Monads flip to wet snow late this afternoon with round 1? The problem is that some guidance is hitting the lift pretty hard with this and others are pretty mundane with light precip. I don't think we get much with round 2...only Maine looks to get anything there.. I noticed that as well. There's definitely a chance if we get the deep layered lift which may happen as the DS tries to move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Both models sort of swing some decent lift into those areas late this aftn and evening before weakening. Might be best chance like 3-9pm or something? We'll see how far west that CCB is tomorrow. I think the cape gets clipped..but I have some reserves about any further west..esp since it seems ULL down south is a little further south and will swing right. Too bad because it would be snow if it came west. Still have to watch I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 1, 2014 Author Share Posted November 1, 2014 Have a feeling we coat things up late today/tonight from here to NW Ri to ORH..then right to the coast early tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Cold air lurking to the north...lots of dews in the mid-upper 20s lurking up there too. Some of it's nocturnal cooling but it was 30/26 at MVL at sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 1, 2014 Author Share Posted November 1, 2014 They're getting wind damage with the snow in SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Showers rotating thru here off and on radar shows some snow back NW in the colder air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I noticed that as well. There's definitely a chance if we get the deep layered lift which may happen as the DS tries to move in. Rap gets the profiles cold enough around 6pm over ORH up to SW NH while there's pretty heavy precip still going...and it stays pretty heavy until around 9-10pm. That's probably the window. Of course, if the precip ends up lighter, then its probably not going to flip over...or only be mangled flakes atthe highest elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Have a feeling we coat things up late today/tonight from here to NW Ri to ORH..then right to the coast early tomorrow I think it's further north with that chance as the cold gets pulled south. Temps at like 850-925 are a little colder further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 It's going to suck sitting in the stadium today. I'm not sure how long we'll last--I'm sure it will be over to rain before it starts. Somehow, ORH will manage to cash in. It's the Pete of central Mass. 37.9/31 at the Pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Have a feeling we coat things up late today/tonight from here to NW Ri to ORH..then right to the coast early tomorrowman if they had only deleted this thread when you asked them. Wxmen praying Euro is right, GFS NAM are DIT damage specials Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 1, 2014 Author Share Posted November 1, 2014 I think it's further north with that chance as the cold gets pulled south. Temps at like 850-925 are a little colder further north.Seems to me it makes it all the way down here. It'll be a race to get it cold enough as precip tapers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Wetbulb Wetbulb Wetbulb. Congrats Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Rap gets the profiles cold enough around 6pm over ORH up to SW NH while there's pretty heavy precip still going...and it stays pretty heavy until around 9-10pm. That's probably the window. Of course, if the precip ends up lighter, then its probably not going to flip over...or only be mangled flakes atthe highest elevations. This would work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Seems to me it makes it all the way down here. It'll be a race to get it cold enough as precip tapers I actually would agree if the precip didn't shut off. It just seems like as it gets cold enough, the precip lightens up. But hey, can't rule it out so we will see. Sometimes you get a lingering band that hangs around in between systems elongated N-S with the 700 low sort of not going anywhere and getting ready to nuke in response to the s/w moving north. SPC WRF sort of shows this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 man if they had only deleted this thread when you a asked them. Wxmen praying Euro is right, GFS NAM are DIT damage a specials Ride a horse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 1, 2014 Author Share Posted November 1, 2014 I actually would agree if the precip didn't shut off. It just seems like as it gets cold enough, the precip lightens up. But hey, can't rule it out so we will see. Sometimes you get a lingering band that hangs around in between systems elongated N-S with the 700 low sort of not going anywhere and getting ready to nuke in response to the s/w moving north. SPC WRF sort of shows this.I know it probably won't happen.. But just hoping for a bday surprise. One can dream I guess lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 And an epic NWS GSP fail as we thought. SO much for those soil temps eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 BTV's map...D-1" most spots with 1-3" higher terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Seems to me it makes it all the way down here. It'll be a race to get it cold enough as precip tapers Being further southwest becomes a real liability in the snow chances since the precip is mostly in the eastern regions...and heaviest there. The cooling comes from dynamics and also a bit of advection from the northeast as well...some drier dewpoints. But I certainly would not rule anything out in terms of a coating of snow. It's possible...I'm still skeptical that even ORH hills get it though. You need to have good precip. The only way lighter precip might work is if round 2 comes in far enough west to get us since by that point, the profiles will be much colder. But it looks like round 2 is a whiff for us...only the Cape up to Maine gets anything...might clip the coast near BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Rap gets the profiles cold enough around 6pm over ORH up to SW NH while there's pretty heavy precip still going...and it stays pretty heavy until around 9-10pm. That's probably the window. Of course, if the precip ends up lighter, then its probably not going to flip over...or only be mangled flakes atthe highest elevations. I miss Cweat's "RAP keeps ticking southeast every hour" posts. I would bet you see flakes, getting it to stick is a whole other thing though. I'd feel confident in a couple hours of nice light snow in ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 And an epic NWS GSP fail as we thought. SO much for those soil temps eh?lessons learned are not passed down and shared . Too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I would definitely see snow if the GFS is right. I just have a weird feeling it's a hair too far west tomorrow morning. It will be close. With such tremendous lift just offshore, I might be sucking on its tail pipe exhaust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 lessons learned are not passed down and shared . Too bad I mean it's the same over and over. I hate that statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 1, 2014 Author Share Posted November 1, 2014 It did snow in Atlanta. Cnn studio in downtown Atl reported snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I am very meh on anything other than a few mangled flakes here But man is it are here today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 The warm ground fetish has been around for decades. Old habits die hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 The warm ground fetish has been around for decades. Old habits die hard.All depends on rates. Frozen ground you can get 5sm -SN to accumulate nicely lol. What do we think is the threshold on warm ground? 1.5sm or lower snow? 0.05" or more per hour in the bucket? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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