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Oct 31- Nov 2nd Storm Disco


Damage In Tolland

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I'm wondering if places like ORH up to Monads flip to wet snow late this afternoon with round 1?

 

The problem is that some guidance is hitting the lift pretty hard with this and others are pretty mundane with light precip. I don't think we get much with round 2...only Maine looks to get anything there..

 

I would think that's possible with the first round.  I'm less optimistic about much further west than that.  (wait---did I just express a qpf concern????).

 

Snowing here in the Blue Ridge, ftw.

 

I suspect I might have a bouncy flight into BDL tomorrow afternoon.

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I'm wondering if places like ORH up to Monads flip to wet snow late this afternoon with round 1?

The problem is that some guidance is hitting the lift pretty hard with this and others are pretty mundane with light precip. I don't think we get much with round 2...only Maine looks to get anything there..

I noticed that as well. There's definitely a chance if we get the deep layered lift which may happen as the DS tries to move in.

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Both models sort of swing some decent lift into those areas late this aftn and evening before weakening. Might be best chance like 3-9pm or something?

 

We'll see how far west that CCB is tomorrow. I think the cape gets clipped..but I have some reserves about any further west..esp since it seems ULL down south is a little further south and will swing right. Too bad because it would be snow if it came west. Still have to watch I guess.

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I noticed that as well. There's definitely a chance if we get the deep layered lift which may happen as the DS tries to move in.

 

 

Rap gets the profiles cold enough around 6pm over ORH up to SW NH while there's pretty heavy precip still going...and it stays pretty heavy until around 9-10pm. That's probably the window. Of course, if the precip ends up lighter, then its probably not going to flip over...or only be mangled flakes atthe highest elevations.

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Rap gets the profiles cold enough around 6pm over ORH up to SW NH while there's pretty heavy precip still going...and it stays pretty heavy until around 9-10pm. That's probably the window. Of course, if the precip ends up lighter, then its probably not going to flip over...or only be mangled flakes atthe highest elevations.

 

This would work.

 

post-33-0-86165200-1414842018_thumb.png

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Seems to me it makes it all the way down here. It'll be a race to get it cold enough as precip tapers

 

I actually would agree if the precip didn't shut off. It just seems like as it gets cold enough, the precip lightens up. But hey, can't rule it out so we will see. Sometimes you get a lingering band that hangs around in between systems elongated N-S with the 700 low sort of not going anywhere and getting ready to nuke in response to the s/w moving north. SPC WRF sort of shows this.

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I actually would agree if the precip didn't shut off. It just seems like as it gets cold enough, the precip lightens up. But hey, can't rule it out so we will see. Sometimes you get a lingering band that hangs around in between systems elongated N-S with the 700 low sort of not going anywhere and getting ready to nuke in response to the s/w moving north. SPC WRF sort of shows this.

I know it probably won't happen.. But just hoping for a bday surprise. One can dream I guess lol
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Seems to me it makes it all the way down here. It'll be a race to get it cold enough as precip tapers

 

 

Being further southwest becomes a real liability in the snow chances since the precip is mostly in the eastern regions...and heaviest there. The cooling comes from dynamics and also a bit of advection from the northeast as well...some drier dewpoints.

 

But I certainly would not rule anything out in terms of a coating of snow. It's possible...I'm still skeptical that even ORH hills get it though. You need to have good precip.

 

The only way lighter precip might work is if round 2 comes in far enough west to get us since by that point, the profiles will be much colder. But it looks like round 2 is a whiff for us...only the Cape up to Maine gets anything...might clip the coast near BOS.

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Rap gets the profiles cold enough around 6pm over ORH up to SW NH while there's pretty heavy precip still going...and it stays pretty heavy until around 9-10pm. That's probably the window. Of course, if the precip ends up lighter, then its probably not going to flip over...or only be mangled flakes atthe highest elevations.

I miss Cweat's "RAP keeps ticking southeast every hour" posts.

I would bet you see flakes, getting it to stick is a whole other thing though. I'd feel confident in a couple hours of nice light snow in ORH.

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