mahk_webstah Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 One of the things you look for in autumn. We had a nice one a week ago and now another. Things definitely looking up winter wise. I was thinking the same thing Jerry. While a good snow would be great this weekend, I am liking this classic fall we are having and it makes sense to get a storm like this, which is a good set-up a month down the road. After 2011 I am a little gun shy on big snows too early. This weekend is a shot across the bow, we probably see some flakes, the leaves come down totally, we warm a bit to around normal or a little above and then (at least up here) we get a small accumulation in mid or late November and then in early December the snowpack begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I was thinking the same thing Jerry. While a good snow would be great this weekend, I am liking this classic fall we are having and it makes sense to get a storm like this, which is a good set-up a month down the road. After 2011 I am a little gun shy on big snows too early. This weekend is a shot across the bow, we probably see some flakes, the leaves come down totally, we warm a bit to around normal or a little above and then (at least up here) we get a small accumulation in mid or late November and then in early December the snowpack begins.next weekend has my interest for you guys too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 All right my little slampigs of Maine, my practice girls of New England. I'm awake. Give old Zeus a summary, and remember, it's Halloween, so keep it spooky. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 What does NB stand for not biting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 What does NB stand for not biting? No biggie, New Brunswick, lol who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Man that is a lot of vorticity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 it'll be interesting to see what the NAM does when she turns the corner with this thing... The 540dm surface is larger in area processing through 12-24 hours compared to the 00z run , and the v-max is a criteria stronger, too... The whole of the trough structure appears to adjust for that by being 1 to 2 degree lat and lon dug more SW during those time frames... What gets conserved out in time is the interesting question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Man that is a lot of vorticity and it's spinning fast too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 It's really too bad we can't back that CCB in another 75 miles on the NAM...that's impressive and there's pretty sufficient cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 it'll be interesting to see what the NAM does when she turns the corner with this thing... The 540dm surface is larger in area processing through 12-24 hours compared to the 00z run , and the v-max is a criteria stronger, too... The whole of the trough structure appears to adjust for that by being 1 to 2 degree lat and lon dug more SW during those time frames... What gets conserved out in time is the interesting question... The whole thing was a little more consolidated, especially after the first wave clears. Looks like ME is gonna get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 It's really too bad we can't back that CCB in another 75 miles on the NAM...that's impressive and there's pretty sufficient cold. It did just come west by 150 miles from 6z lol. It is the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 It did just come west by 150 miles from 6z lol. It is the NAM. It's a problematic setup for models due to the anomalous nature of the trough and multiple vortmaxima going around it...in the end, I think we just don't have enough room to bring this back..we need this trough to be slightly west, but it might be interesting for parts of Maine. I wouldn't even really entertain the possibility of accumulating snow in SNE even if the 12z NAM showed it. I'd want to see good ensemble support...namely from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 That said....road trip to Bar Harbor and BGR on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 It hammers DE Maine, That's what it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 It's a problematic setup for models due to the anomalous nature of the trough and multiple vortmaxima going around it...in the end, I think we just don't have enough room to bring this back..we need this trough to be slightly west, but it might be interesting for parts of Maine. I wouldn't even really entertain the possibility of accumulating snow in SNE even if the 12z NAM showed it. I'd want to see good ensemble support...namely from the Euro. At the point when it matters for Maine, it is out of its range as well. Bangor went from literally nothing to a foot plus in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 It's a problematic setup for models due to the anomalous nature of the trough and multiple vortmaxima going around it...in the end, I think we just don't have enough room to bring this back..we need this trough to be slightly west, but it might be interesting for parts of Maine. I wouldn't even really entertain the possibility of accumulating snow in SNE even if the 12z NAM showed it. I'd want to see good ensemble support...namely from the Euro. The rule of "the wall" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 next weekend has my interest for you guys too haven't looked at all...hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 The heck with all of you, I'm locking in the 3z RPM that gave me 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 All of those CIPS analog maps are pretty darn wet...but I don't know how useful those are. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/threats.php?reg=EC&flg=&date= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 The heck with all of you, I'm locking in the 3z RPM that gave me 6". Sounds like the most reasonable option Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 High wind watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Sounds like the most reasonable option Yep, always go high...can adjust down later. The DIT way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 The heck with all of you, I'm locking in the 3z RPM that gave me 6". If we are playing that game I go back to the 10-12" from the 18z GFS. Anyway, the CIPS analog page looks useless. It's basically keying in on a deep trough this time of year and going with climo of upslope and lake effect. Not happening in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Yep, always go high...can adjust down later. The DIT way. I thought it was we can always go higher if need be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I thought it was we can always go higher if need be? Yeah it's start high and adjust up if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 4 of the top 5 CIPS analogs from last night give ORH accumulating snow...11/12/87, 11/7/12, 10/23/03, 10/18/09. But the one analog that didn't was 10/26/90...which actually looks the most reasonable with the storm being a bit too far east. With the uncertainty in the models, the CIPS analogs are probably not going to be very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Yep, always go high...can adjust down later. The DIT way.knarleeeeeyyyy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 That said....road trip to Bar Harbor and BGR on the NAM. NAM 0.60" QPF in 6 hours at RKD with temps -5.5 at 850, -3.5 at 925. Nice blitz right around kickoff Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 NAM 0.60" QPF in 6 hours at RKD with temps -5.5 at 850, -3.5 at 925. Nice blitz right around kickoff Sunday. Nothing like a good ole paste blizz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Hey...JB still has the 00z CRAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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