IsentropicLift Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Technically the 12z JMA did this too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Technically the 12z JMA did this too What about the KMA or Brazilian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I wonder how many pages of posts we can get just from the 18z OP GFS run. Happy hour. Let me grab something to drink and lets do it! haha GFS 18z run is a huge buzz right now on twitter. UGH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Seriously, dtk would rip you all a new one for bad science if he was reading this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 The whole thing is suspect from the Carolina's all the way up to D.E.M. and points E to about the 70th longitude... That much surreal power in mid level jet mechanics will induce upper envelope Q-vector forcing, and together with mid level cold working over the Gulf Stream ... anyone sane has to wonder if that much instability is well handled. Something special should really explode there and do it with exceptional rapidity to put it lightly. Faster and feed back faster than even the higher res Euro has been showing at that. That's what it looks like to me. Then I see the 18z GFS at least try to acknowledge this stuff.. but it is another ensemble afterthought, so taken for whatever lesser worth. It may also be that Canadian shield impulse is getting into a denser sampling net, too In any event... I don't think this was ever a very solid looking snow event S. of about 45N for anyone. The impetus for me all along was the storm genesis and using early signaling and that much was fine. As to impact in general ... I think that it will be too warm for much snow SE of a KHPN - KMHT line (or so); but who knows... So much dynamical forcing and some pretty cold air at 700mb may punch threw.. Yes a few runs over the last span of days had occasionally depicted better cold ... But I'm of the school where if I get s flurry and some grains out of the deal, with the aroma of wood smoke in the air, that's a wonderfully sentiment vibe when knowing we got ALL of Novy through Feb in route. There will be rapid cyclogenesis, but it is a shame it's sort of a dualing low type deal. All those things you mentioned would have carved a hole in the atmosphere east of HSE...there already will be a semblance of that, but a single low would have all the baroclinic energy in the world to gobble up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I wonder how many pages of posts we can get just from the 18z OP GFS run. Happy hour. Seemed like just a few hours ago that Kevin wanted someone to delete the thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 And to think the 18z NAM doesn't have a drop of precipitation in the state of Maine through 84 hours. Gotta love the American models. The folks at NCEP have models for whatever flavor storm you are looking for...they've got all the bases covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Seriously, dtk would rip you all a new one for bad science if he was reading this How is it bad science to be weary of an OP GFS run? Its NWP analysis 101. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 How is it bad science to be weary of an OP GFS run? Its NWP analysis 101. No it's not, and it's clearly an outlier as long as it's an outlier. He gets really pissed at the "happy hour" references. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 No it's not, and it's clearly an outlier as long as it's an outlier. He gets really pissed at the "happy hour" references. Oh well that's just a running joke. Last couple of winters the 18z run had seemed to spit out some kooky solutions. I know on a larger scale the differences in verification score are negligible, but it was giving us some entertainment on several threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Oh well that's just a running joke. Last couple of winters the 18z run had seemed to spit out some kooky solutions. I know on a larger scale the differences in verification score are negligible, but it was giving us some entertainment on several threats. I know it is, my comments were mostly a joke as well. But it does bug him. I do believe I read somewhere that at this time frame, the 18z GFS is statistically the most accurate model when it comes out, as compared to the 12z ECMWF for instance, but that obviously doesn't mean it's right when it has no support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 GEFS mean is wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 GEFS mean is wet grasping at straws in the NYC subforum my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Seemed like just a few hours ago that Kevin wanted someone to delete the thread... check my reply lol it was exactly at that point Kev posted ,the JUJU started flowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 18Z GFS has provided me with more wx porn over the years than any run. I believe DTK but I also know it's happy hour nickname was given for a good reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 Nice to see Scooter getting active on Twitter with the big boys and tweeting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Lol Geezus GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Nice to see Scooter getting active on Twitter with the big boys and tweetingI think Ryan says weenies at least 5 times a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 I think Ryan says weenies at least 5 times a dayHe blocked me from following him this week unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 He blocked me from following him this week unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 He blocked me from following him this week unfortunatelymissed the RPM stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 missed the RPM stuff?if I search his name I can see them, but he blocked me from following him. What do you mean RPM stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Don't even go there. The RPM 72 hrs out is about on par with the 384hr GFS op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 if I search his name I can see them, but he blocked me from following him. What do you mean RPM stuff?just joking but lol, you really should look at GEFS, going to be hard to ignore that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Hoping for some cat paws at the end here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Don't even go there. The RPM 72 hrs out is about on par with the 384hr GFS op.there's a fly in me soup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Don't even go there. The RPM 72 hrs out is about on par with the 384hr GFS op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 Would be nice if someone said what RPM showed. I'm guessing heavy rains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 Not tossed @ericfisher: Hmmm @NWSWPC throwing some pretty respectable >2" snow probs for much of New England this weekend. http://t.co/Re3wZLE7df Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Exactly, The focus had been on that one making this more convoluted with the second wave, Maybe the focus was on the wrong wave? You almost wonder with all the 12z models today if we're moving away from the idea of 2 separate lows and models are converging on low # 1 being the only deal..or just 1 low instead of 2. WTF My thoughts as well earlier and looks like it may change to more of a one low focus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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