dendrite Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 CAR/FVE get destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 1.75"-2.50" qpf almost state wide here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 Does it flip interior Sne to snow at end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Jefffafa alooks like EPS e 27 eh lol lol, I just thought of that as well steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 On the NCEP progs it actually looks colder at 925mb than at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 What's 1.5" of qpf among friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Went from qpf worries to temp worries one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Kevin, maybe some flakes at the end as the energy swings through Saturday night. It would be nice for the second low to go to town to our south. This whole thing is just weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Went from qpf worries to temp worries one run Low top spinner threat by 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Good grief at the upslope parameters late in the storm too...what the Greens miss in QPF may be made up with upslope in a colder profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Lol at the gfs 18z, 1.5" of precip where 6z had it dry. 2.88" liquid, mostly snow for northern Maine. It just decided that the first low would track 300 miles further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 That second low would have been a full blown nor'easter but verbatim it's sloppy seconds with not much moisture left to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 At bball practice so can't see.. But I'm guessing the first low being stronger reduces backside wind threat of a weaker #2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 At bball practice so can't see.. But I'm guessing the first low being stronger reduces backside wind threat of a weaker #2? 2 is a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Went from qpf worries to temp worries one run That was the crazy run lol. That's warning criteria snow mountains of NNE from VT to ME. I wish I didn't see that haha. Textbook 12 hour upslope period with a stacked low near CAR and 40-60kt 850mb winds slamming the picnic tables. Pittsburg NH would be the jackpot in that solution getting both good Synoptic lift and ramming home the upslope on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 30-40kt winds possible on the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I wonder how many pages of posts we can get just from the 18z OP GFS run. Happy hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 You almost wonder with all the 12z models today if we're moving away from the idea of 2 separate lows and models are converging on low # 1 being the only deal..or just 1 low instead of 2. WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I wonder how many pages of posts we can get just from the 18z OP GFS run. Happy hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Cue the backside snows never work out post. Cue the convective feedback posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I wonder how many pages of posts we can get just from the 18z OP GFS run. Happy hour. The 18z models never disappoint. Always good entertainment.30" on the snow map for FVE. 6"+ all the way down the Spine to the Litchfield/Berkshire county line in western New England lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 This always seemed to have a tasty appeal for maine over everwhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 You almost wonder with all the 12z models today if we're moving away from the idea of 2 separate lows and models are converging on low # 1 being the only deal..or just 1 low instead of 2. WTF That main vort coming through on Sunday should eventually be the dominant player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 The 18z models never disappoint. Always good entertainment. 30" on the snow map for FVE. 6"+ all the way down the Spine to the Litchfield/Berkshire county line in western New England lol. 18z giveth and 00z probably taketh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I wonder how many pages of posts we can get just from the 18z OP GFS run. Happy hour. I'm telling dtk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 That main vort coming through on Sunday should eventually be the dominant player.that would suggest you favor a correction westward a la GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Seems prudent to wait for the full 0z suite before putting too much stock in the 18z GFS. Fine details in the 500mb evolution and how pockets of vorticity rotate around the ULL will make a huge difference here. The GFS wraps the upper level flow around to easterly into SNE whereas the NAM retains mostly a westerly component. It could almost come down to a nowcast situation and waiting to see if and where persistent bands of precip develop over SNE on Sat. The GFS probably whitens the upper elevations of the Berks pretty solidly late Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Kevin, maybe some flakes at the end as the energy swings through Saturday night. It would be nice for the second low to go to town to our south. This whole thing is just weird. The whole thing is suspect from the Carolina's all the way up to D.E.M. and points E to about the 70th longitude... That much surreal power in mid level jet mechanics will induce upper envelope Q-vector forcing, and together with mid level cold working over the Gulf Stream ... anyone sane has to wonder if that much instability is well handled. Something special should really explode there and do it with exceptional rapidity to put it lightly. Faster and feed back faster than even the higher res Euro has been showing at that. That's what it looks like to me. Then I see the 18z GFS at least try to acknowledge this stuff.. but it is another ensemble afterthought, so taken for whatever lesser worth. It may also be that Canadian shield impulse is getting into a denser sampling net, too In any event... I don't think this was ever a very solid looking snow event S. of about 45N for anyone. The impetus for me all along was the storm genesis and using early signaling and that much was fine. As to impact in general ... I think that it will be too warm for much snow SE of a KHPN - KMHT line (or so); but who knows... So much dynamical forcing and some pretty cold air at 700mb may punch threw.. Yes a few runs over the last span of days had occasionally depicted better cold ... But I'm of the school where if I get s flurry and some grains out of the deal, with the aroma of wood smoke in the air, that's a wonderfully sentiment vibe when knowing we got ALL of Novy through Feb in route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 18z giveth and 00z probably taketh.Oh I wouldn't trust this at all...it's further west than even the furthest west ECMWF ensemble member from 12z. Literally and figuratively out in left field.I'm not going to be home this weekend so part of me is happy that it's an outlier. Would hate to miss that type of event haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 that would suggest you favor a correction westward a la GFS? I'm not going there...lol. I didn't think 2 would really blow up until it got east of CAR/NB/NS. I think the GFS is off its rocker, but we'll see what the GEFS and 00z models do. I mean, can you ever really trust the GFS when it's alone and spews out a solution like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.