dryslot Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Cant believe the run to run changes thought this would be figured out by now A lot of moving parts and just some subtle changes up stream looks like it can make big differences down stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 A lot of moving parts and just some subtle changes looks like it can make big differences up stream Yeah like we talked about..50 miles here and there. Subtle changes in a sharp trough mean a lot. Not that it matters too much here..but certainly way up in ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I'm still not sold on the initial shortwave missing the area. The 12z NAM was quite robust, especially for the Cape, but now seeing the GFS tick west raises an eyebrow. That possible inverted trough is another wildcard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 It formed the storm on the leading S/W...call me skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Yeah like we talked about..50 miles here and there. Subtle changes in a sharp trough mean a lot. Not that it matters too much here..but certainly way up in ME. Yes, It was not going to take much back up here with the track, 50 mile shift makes a huge difference as was discussed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 It formed the storm on the leading S/W...call me skeptical. Exactly, The focus had been on that one making this more convoluted with the second wave, Maybe the focus was on the wrong wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Exactly, The focus had been on that one making this more convoluted with the second wave, Maybe the focus was on the wrong wave? Well those are nuances that you can't really work out until closer in. The trough axis is west of 12z yesterday which also makes it easier for that first low to bring precip west on the 1st s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Exactly, The focus had been on that one making this more convoluted with the second wave, Maybe the focus was on the wrong wave? You idiots! These are not them! You've captured their stunt doubles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 I'm still not sold on the initial shortwave missing the area. The 12z NAM was quite robust, especially for the Cape, but now seeing the GFS tick west raises an eyebrow. That possible inverted trough is another wildcard. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Well those are nuances that you can't really work out until closer in. The trough axis is west of 12z yesterday which also makes it easier for that first low to bring precip west on the 1st s/w. Just shows how some changes can play a bigger role, Will have to see what the other models do with this, I would think we may still see changes even heading into 0-12Z on friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 That open end where the lighthouse is can be brutal, Ask the Ravens about it.........lol That's where my seats our - WAY UP in the corner. Sold tickets to this game due to son's football playoffs, but yes, the wind up there can be nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 since most of the leaves are down they should measure leaf temps. I lol'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Bastardi sticking to his guns that this is still coming west more...he's been hammering this from the start of the East/Offshore trend. Things just got a lil interesting again. What? Did we expect this to sail softly off into the night....lol. If nothing else, at least the Euro today will be worth a look, and future runs of models have some appeal too, now that this has shifted somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Bastardi sticking to his guns that this is still coming west more...he's been hammering this from the start of the East/Offshore trend. Things just got a lil interesting again. What? Did we expect this to sail softly off into the night....lol. If nothing else, at least the Euro today will be worth a look, and future runs of models have some appeal too, now that this has shifted somewhat. That's great, but it also will bring in warmer air. I'm shocked he thinks that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 what a waste of digging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 His idea was(maybe still is?) not sure since I don't subscribe.. That the heavy snow would be from NE Pa. Right up thru interior SNE on north. That ain't happening Giuseppe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 ggem looks wet. Might be my weenie goggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Wow that GFS run would bring probably a couple to several inches even in the northern Greens with that lingering deformation and upslope flow behind the low. Now has 0.25-0.5" across northern VT...while NH and ME get clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 That's great, but it also will bring in warmer air. I'm shocked he thinks that.He's never missed a hit. We needed the CAA behind wave 1 to have any chance with 2. I'm not sure anyone outside of far NNE can pull off snow from 1 if it somehow manages to back in for NH/MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 That's great, but it also will bring in warmer air. I'm shocked he thinks that. I think his idea is more that the Storm will affect more of the Northeast than just Far Eastern areas...with precip, not necessarily snow. He feels the bigger system/more consolidated idea should play out. Of course that's not a surprise there that he thinks that, but he gives valid ideas/reasons to why he feels this way. Wants to wait until tomorrow when he can see all the players/pieces on the field, and how they are interacting, to either concede to the OTS/off shore idea, or continue to stick to his guns. Like him, or hate him, he isn't a flip flopper that's for sure. Stubborn....Yes!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 He's never missed a hit. We needed the CAA behind wave 1 to have any chance with 2. I'm not sure anyone outside of far NNE can pull off snow from 1 if it somehow manages to back in for NH/MA. To many cooks in the kitchen. One of the more bizarre maps we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I feel dumber for even posting this, but if you were looking for a 500mb evolution that could deliver the goods after the initial low tracks to SC, this is it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 That's where my seats our - WAY UP in the corner. Sold tickets to this game due to son's football playoffs, but yes, the wind up there can be nasty. I had seasons from 2001-2007, But was down at the other end on the visitors side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 GFS says: hold your wagons SNE, I might piss rain showers on your weekend parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 12z GGEM is a miss, but has a drawn out 0.2" QPF for BOS and the ME mountains tapering to a widespread 0.05-0.15" for all. Exciting stuff. Trace snowfall for MPM in northern Berks, 0.5-1.0" all of the Greens and northern half of Whites, and 1.0"-1.9" from Pittsburg on NE. Nothing SE of those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 There's a fly in the ointment Elvira Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 12z GGEM is a miss, but has a drawn out 0.2" QPF for BOS and the ME mountains tapering to a widespread 0.05-0.15" for all. Exciting stuff. Trace snowfall for MPM in northern Berks, 0.5-1.0" all of the Greens and northern half of Whites, and 1.0"-1.9" from Pittsburg on NE. Lol. Much more than that actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Much more than that actually Yesterday's run. (initialized Oct 29th) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Much more than that actually That doesn't look like the 12z map I'm looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 My bad, here is the new map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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