Hazey Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I guess it's gonna be fun times in the maritimes. Could be a wild weekend around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 So some an individual Japanese ensemble members are is on board? Seems lots of people are talking at this system, I've been keeping an eye on the GFS which doesn't really show anything for mby after previously showing rain to minor snowfall several days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Why were the Euro ensembles so west and juiced the last few days? The majority of the members were good hits..why did they falter? Because it's so far out number 1. Models will change their tune 5 days out. GEFS were kind of wet too which gives way to the fact the some really juiced up members can skew the mean. You simply cannot lock in any model, even ensembles 5 days out I still won't be shocked if this wiggles 50 miles either way though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I still won't be shocked if this wiggles 50 miles either way though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I'll give it until 0z until totally pulling the plug. Let's not forget this weekend is going to have a deep fall feel, so we still have that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I'll give it until 0z until totally pulling the plug. Let's not forget this weekend is going to have a deep fall feel, so we still have that But remember, if you pull the plug now AND turn out to be correct, you get a higher score for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 Because it's so far out number 1. Models will change their tune 5 days out. GEFS were kind of wet too which gives way to the fact the some really juiced up members can skew the mean. You simply cannot lock in any model, even ensembles 5 days out I still won't be shocked if this wiggles 50 miles either way though. 50 miles west won't matter anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 50 miles west won't matter anyway. Not for you, no. But SE MA and the Cape it might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 Not for you, no. But SE MA and the Cape it might. If I was you or them I wouldn't count on it. Progressive = phail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I hope I didn't sound like I was honking too much. One of those fun "high impact, low probability" events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I hope I didn't sound like I was honking too much. One of those fun "high impact, low probability" events. lol, Not really, It was a complex setup with many moving parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 12z Euro Ensembles are east as well, Hammer, Nail, Coffin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 12z Euro Ensembles are east as well, Hammer, Nail, Coffin Not a good thing to hear. SREF are nice. ( weenie ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 If I was you or them I wouldn't count on it. Progressive = phail I don't think I ever once implied that. But they will get some rain and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I don't think I ever once implied that. But they will get some rain and wind. Could, but either way it is going to be too much of a strung out pos to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Could, but either way it is going to be too much of a strung out pos to snow. Agree. Might be some mangled flakes near the canal if any precip got there. Still going to be some strong gusts there along with rain at times I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 I thought folks had said 12z ens were good too. Seems like for now most should plan on flakes and hope 12z today trends west..otherwise it's flakes in the air..wind advisories for most and HWW from the cape north along coast to maine Chalk another one up for the gipper STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL DEVELOP. EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SHOULD RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUN AS MIXING INCREASES. ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. GIVEN MANY TREES STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE ENHANCED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I guess I'll luck out in western VA. from the zfp: "Light snow accumulation possible" for Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Chalk another one up for the gipper STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL DEVELOP. EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SHOULD RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUN AS MIXING INCREASES. ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. GIVEN MANY TREES STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE ENHANCED. BDL in the summer, ORH in the winter, and ACK in the fall. Got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 BDL in the summer, ORH in the winter, and ACK in the fall. Got it. The life of the nomad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 Always know a threat is officially over when Will stops posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Always know a threat is officially over when Will stops posting Yup, Pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Always know a threat is officially over when Will stops postingit stinks. Cape and se ma events can be fun for them though. Many of the good ones they miss out. Maybe they can luck out. Remember that were gonna at least have some of the first cold with wind of the season. Windchills won't be fun in the open endzone wind tunnel at gillette. Intriguing matchup. First time these two teams meet this year, some big differences between the two squads minus the long term veteran stalwarts. LaFall and healthy gronk plus Edelman.. amendola when needed.. gray and vereen give variety out of the backfield.. offense finally rolling. But how will defense fare without Mayo and additions of ayers and casillas? Peyton historically abysmal in chilly windy conditions, however... any given sunday anything can happen. History doesnt matter, only sunday does. Being a footba weenie... but cherish these brady manning final matchups. If they don't meet in playoffs, or broncos win and he retires, this could be the last. Its like bird magic. People are gonna miss this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 it stinks. Cape and se ma events can be fun for them though. Many of the good ones they miss out. Maybe they can luck out. Remember that were gonna at least have some of the first cold with wind of the season. Windchills won't be fun in the open endzone wind tunnel at gillette. Intriguing matchup. First time these two teams meet this year, some big differences between the two squads minus the long term veteran stalwarts. LaFall and healthy gronk plus Edelman.. amendola when needed.. gray and vereen give variety out of the backfield.. offense finally rolling. But how will defense fare without Mayo and additions of ayers and casillas? Peyton historically abysmal in chilly windy conditions, however... any given sunday anything can happen. History doesnt matter, only sunday does. Being a footba weenie... but cherish these brady manning final matchups. If they don't meet in playoffs, or broncos win and he retires, this could be the last. Its like bird magic. People are gonna miss this. Take the Pats +3 at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Always know a threat is officially over when Will stops posting I wouldn't post much either if I were inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 I wouldn't post much either if I were inland.Enjoy the rains and post a few pics of it for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Enjoy the rains and post a few pics of it for us! I'm not even sure on that. You seem angry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 I'm not even sure on that. You seem angry.Angry? Just disappointed in what was probably my last chance of a white birthday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Angry? Just disappointed in what was probably my last chance of a white birthday.What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Angry? Just disappointed in what was probably my last chance of a white birthday. Sorry to hear. RIP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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