CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 There's always your warm core cyclo-cane on the Canadian. That always happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The GFS has 10 meter sustained winds of 45+ knots on the outer cape (gotten off tropical tidbits website, it might be gusts but I don't think so) there's a tight pressure gradient and we could see some serious winds (especially if it moves west a bit and consolidates faster) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Please post the next frame.TY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The GGEM closes off over Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Well at least Ocean State Chris will have to worry about HWW in his coastal zones I'd like to see it once it's in Bufkit, but taking an AWIPS cross section with lapse rates to proxy mixed layer, GFS would have some 45 knot potential on the coast. 60 out over the ocean, not surprisingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Please post the next frame.TY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Not gonna happen unless this develops more consolidated. We still have disrupted conveyors with the front running s/w lowering the heights ahead of the main show...thus our WAA is cut off and mid-level circulation is never really strengthened until way too late. One of those situations Ray 40/70 talks where one perturbation is all that's stopping a monster storm....that track should smoke at least half of SNE, same with the previous EURO ensembles the track should be a KU if it was properly developed....like you said with good warm and cold conveyor belts hammering SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The GFS has 10 meter sustained winds of 45+ knots on the outer cape (gotten off tropical tidbits website, it might be gusts but I don't think so) there's a tight pressure gradient and we could see some serious winds (especially if it moves west a bit and consolidates faster) GFS verbatim would be able to mix 50-60 knots gusts over the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The Candaian goes nutz with the initial wave. Clobbers the Cape and Coastal Maine with heavy rain and wind. Second wave is well OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 One of those situations Ray 40/70 talks where one perturbation is all that's stopping a monster storm....that track should smoke at least half of SNE, same with the previous EURO ensembles the track should be a KU if it was properly developed....like you said with good warm and cold conveyor belts hammering SNE. That's what happens when you take the WAA away. You are left with tight E-W precip gradients despite a 984 low or whatever it is. You still can get some good baroclincity to help restore things as the waters east of HSE are 80+, but you need more than 6-12 hrs. So, you lose the nice circular CCB type look. Only way it improves is if somehow everything clears out and makes way for the second s/w to go nuts, but the window of opportunity is narrow. More often than not you set yourself up for disappointment if you are on the edge. However, we still have probably another day for adjustments. We'll see if the 12z ensembles are any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Watching the 12z GEFS spaghetti members come in. Quite a few go nutz with the initial wave like the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Tons of spread still at 90 hours. Still have a few stronger members inside of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 It becomes warm core too. Classic Canadian cyclo-cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 It becomes warm core too. Classic Canadian cyclo-cane. I like the two sub-995 mb low centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 It becomes warm core too. Classic Canadian cyclo-cane. No really, asymmetric warm core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I like the two sub-995 mb low centers. Staring down the dbbl barrel shotgun, It looked similar to the 0z Euro Op with the 2 lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 No really, asymmetric warm core. 111.phase1.png Tucks in a nice pocket of +14C 850 temps. Hope they schedule reconnaissance flights into it. Although, it's not too uncommon for some warm pockets to happen in strong cyclogenesis...it's just that the Canadian has a huge fetish for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I like the two sub-995 mb low centers. You better be humping this in the AFD this afternoon..."Tossed all over solutions in favor of the 12z GGEM verbatim and loaded that into the grids..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 You better be humping this in the AFD this afternoon..."Tossed all over solutions in favor of the 12z GGEM verbatim and loaded that into the grids..." I would no be totally shocked if the Euro looked similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I would no be totally shocked if the Euro looked similar The Euro looks odd too. It develops the second low center, but then the primary takes over again later in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The Euro looks odd too. It develops the second low center, but then the primary takes over again later in the forecast. It does, Pretty disjointed and elongated, We will know more shortly, 12z Euro has Initialized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Will the H5 low make it to Florida by Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Will the H5 low make it to Florida by Friday? Nice 75-100 mile shift south from 0z, A mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Whiff, Wide right, Scrapes DE Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Looks like ya'll have to wait for your snow. Enjoy fall for what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Threat over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Whiff, Wide right I am prepared to declare victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Looks like ya'll have to wait for your snow. Enjoy fall for what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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