dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 3:44 PM, JC-CT said: I am only out to hr 42, and H5 looks pretty darn similar. Nothing like the solutions 2 days ago. Are there significant changes after that? ULL is a little north of 06z, This looks like its going to be west of 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 It's definitely trying to inject more vorticity on the backside and less disjointed. Probably gonna be west of 6z, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Precip already into Maine its will be NW of 06z, looks like better ridging out ahead with higher heights don't know if it will be enough though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Looks like it will get the Cape anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Looks more like recent ensembles of the GFS actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 3:51 PM, CoastalWx said: It's definitely trying to inject more vorticity on the backside and less disjointed. Probably gonna be west of 6z, Cool looking setup for HSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Going to crush DE Maine, Mid coast east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Gonna need more than that, but close to quite a whacking on CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 It was better but still has work to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Some pretty big changes at 500 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 12z showing a little bit strong and a little bit west. Not a lot of movement difference for sfc low between both runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 3:54 PM, dryslot said: Going to crush DE Maine, Mid coast east euro should be fun, beautiful Jet streak over 130 rounded the base and this beast just exploded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Pretty sharp cut off to the NW with precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 3:56 PM, Ginxy said: euro should be fun, beautiful Jet streak over 130 rounded the base and this beast just exploded. That was another good move by the GFS it is real close this run, About a 50-75 mile shift west at the surface at this lat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The changes are more in Quebec. That ULL east of Hudson Bay moves west and allowed the height field to buckle. It needs more help, but an improvement anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 3:37 PM, ORH_wxman said: For SNe, the Veteran's Day '87 storm also would contribute a lot. I just checked the CIPS analogs now after wondering if 10/18/09 was still there in my reply to Hubbdave, and it is...but strangely, the CIPS site has no snowfall over SNE for that storm even though there was a general 0.5-2.0"...with some isolated 3-5" amounts. The reports are there if you click on point totals. So it has to be the smoothing factor. Like you'll notice MWN influences things a lot in NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 500mb there is for sure some changes between the last run and this one. interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 3:56 PM, dryslot said: Pretty sharp cut off to the NW with precip It's essentially trying to engineer a way to be the closest tease it can without actually hitting any forum members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 2-2.5" qpf over DE Maine, But it is a sharp cut off back west from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Storm force winds on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 3:57 PM, dryslot said: That was another good move by the GFS it is real close this run, About a 50-75 mile shift west at the surface at this lat Definitely significant changes for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Eastern folks see flakes but the Precip shield, overall, is wierd though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 4:00 PM, powderfreak said: It's essentially trying to engineer a way to be the closest tease it can without actually hitting any forum members. Certainly is..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 3:58 PM, OceanStWx said: The reports are there if you click on point totals. So it has to be the smoothing factor. Like you'll notice MWN influences things a lot in NH. They didn't have the 3.5" on the Tennessee bench measured by Kerry Collins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 3:58 PM, CoastalWx said: The changes are more in Quebec. That ULL east of Hudson Bay moves west and allowed the height field to buckle. It needs more help, but an improvement anyways. In all situations, the question is not "will it wiggle" but more so "can it wiggle." That is to say, the realm of possibility can push only so far. So yes, more help needed. But, is more help possible? The way I look at this, things "swing" east around a little axis point and can't quite be tucked enough for the somewhat dreamy impact hinted at -- but NOT displayed -- in this run. I have no idea if that's a "possible" or "not possible" on the wiggle spectrum. Science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 4:00 PM, JC-CT said: Definitely significant changes for your area. Still not enough back where i am but the SLP track was further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 4:01 PM, ruNNaWayIcEberG said: Eastern folks see flakes but the Precip shield, overall, is wierd though.... I don't know if that's cold enough when it passes the Cape for any flakes until you get into downeast ME. Someone at NCEP is laughing though...trying to make this tease with no gratification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 4:03 PM, Zeus said: In all situations, the question is not "will it wiggle" but more so "can it wiggle." That is to say, the realm of possibility can push only so far. So yes, more help needed. But, is more help possible? The way I look at this, things "swing" east around a little axis point and can't quite be tucked enough for the somewhat dreamy impact hinted at -- but NOT displayed -- in this run. I have no idea if that's a "possible" or "not possible" on the wiggle spectrum. Science. Not much more, but a euro solution probably would bring it west a bit. The Cape actually tickles the CCB, but a bit too warm there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The GFS would bribg 60+mph winds and a 35F catpaw at Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Blizz's winds might rule the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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