dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I take requests. As things stand now, it does look like consensus is a near miss. That would still give me snow in my eastern zones though. Going to need more model guidance to hop on the Euro's back soon if at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I take requests. As things stand now, it does look like consensus is a near miss. That would still give me snow in my eastern zones though. I would like to request temps in the 60s with low humidity for all weekends between now and mid-December. I don't want golf season to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Going to need more model guidance to hop on the Euro's back soon if at all Not even the euro's back.......really just the Euro Ens' back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Not even the euro's back.......really just the Euro Ens' back. They are much better, But the OP up this way still had some snow, Nowhere else though, Better to have this model then any other showing something to keep the flame flickering at least until it jumps ship possibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 If you look at the change in the op Euro runs with the h5 evolution from 12z Sunday to 00z Wednesday it's pretty astounding. Pretty dramatic change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 If you look at the change in the op Euro runs with the h5 evolution from 12z Sunday to 00z Wednesday it's pretty astounding. Pretty dramatic change. Euro back to what it did last winter season of over-amplification? My thoughts from a couple days ago still hold. Still feel NNE may see some wintry precip out of this but looks like mostly a miss for most in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 If you look at the change in the op Euro runs with the h5 evolution from 12z Sunday to 00z Wednesday it's pretty astounding. Pretty dramatic change. The GFS too. On Sunday it had like a 988mb low over NNE with big snows in Montreal. This whole set up looks nothing like the original flavor last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Euro back to what it did last winter season of over-amplification? My thoughts from a couple days ago still hold. Still feel NNE may see some wintry precip out of this but looks like mostly a miss for most in SNE. I wish the Euro runs from Sunday/early Monday still held with the ULL closing overhead and some nice looking snow showers/squalls streaming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The GFS too. On Sunday it had like a 988mb low over NNE with big snows in Montreal. This whole set up looks nothing like the original flavor last weekend. Yeah that's why the s honking snow, damaging winds, etc. need to reevaluate lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Starting to slowly get into the window of the NAM. Interesting to see what this model does with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I've been curious about this for a while: Does anyone know if there is statistically significant negative correlation between model verification scores and the magnitude of the height anomolies they are forecasting? The "model says this but I'm going to hedge against climo" argument would seem to imply that the common belief is yes, but I'm wondering if it has been statistically measured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I've been curious about this for a while: Does anyone know if there is statistically significant negative correlation between model verification scores and the magnitude of the height anomolies they are forecasting? The "model says this but I'm going to hedge against climo" argument would seem to imply that the common belief is yes, but I'm wondering if it has been statistically measured. I have no numbers to back it up, but anecdotally the larger the anomaly the more likely it is for the NWP to pick up on the system. Think Sandy: large anomaly but great verification. Models tend to struggle the most when forcing is weak and nebulous. This is why verification scores generally go up during our winter, because the systems are stronger and more concentrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I take requests. As things stand now, it does look like consensus is a near miss. That would still give me snow in my eastern zones though. can i request something with no precip? outdoor plans on saturday. temps don't matter, but precip would be a pain to deal with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I have no numbers to back it up, but anecdotally the larger the anomaly the more likely it is for the NWP to pick up on the system. Think Sandy: large anomaly but great verification. Models tend to struggle the most when forcing is weak and nebulous. This is why verification scores generally go up during our winter, because the systems are stronger and more concentrated. March 93 is another good example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 March 93 is another good example. Five of the fifteen top analogs based on the GFS forecast are pretty good hits, most show at least some snowfall in northern New England mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 4th best match is 12/07/2003, if that were to repeat this weekend it would blow October 2011 out of the water for just about everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 4th best match is 12/07/2003, if that were to repeat this weekend it would blow October 2011 out of the water for just about everyone. That was my first snowstorm after moving to Boston to attend university. I remember it well. But what is the real value of mentioning this? We all know it's not going to play out like that. You're being silly and you need to be hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 4th best match is 12/07/2003, if that were to repeat this weekend it would blow October 2011 out of the water for just about everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 That was my first snowstorm after moving to Boston to attend university. I remember it well. But what is the real value of mentioning this? We all know it's not going to play out like that. You're being silly and you need to be hit. Because if I don't include the possibility of a major snowfall the weenies get mad. It's probably worth noting though that that one storm skews the entire analog average snowfall graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Do Oct 2009 events show up at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 12z GFS starting to roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Do Oct 2009 events show up at all? 10/18/09 was showing uip yesterday, but not sure if it still is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 4th best match is 12/07/2003, if that were to repeat this weekend it would blow October 2011 out of the water for just about everyone. Meh... 37" is a mere pittance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Because if I don't include the possibility of a major snowfall the weenies get mad. It's probably worth noting though that that one storm skews the entire analog average snowfall graphics. For SNe, the Veteran's Day '87 storm also would contribute a lot. I just checked the CIPS analogs now after wondering if 10/18/09 was still there in my reply to Hubbdave, and it is...but strangely, the CIPS site has no snowfall over SNE for that storm even though there was a general 0.5-2.0"...with some isolated 3-5" amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 For SNe, the Veteran's Day '87 storm also would contribute a lot. I just checked the CIPS analogs now after wondering if 10/18/09 was still there in my reply to Hubbdave, and it is...but strangely, the CIPS site has no snowfall over SNE for that storm even though there was a general 0.5-2.0"...with some isolated 3-5" amounts. Did they lump the 2 events (10/16?) and that together? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 12z GFS starting to roll. Seems to be honing in on a solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Did they lump the 2 events (10/16?) and that together? No, because it uses 72 hour coop snow 2 days after the analog date...so that would exclude 10/16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Seems to be honing in on a solution 12z is digging south more then 06z, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 12z is digging south more then 06z, I am only out to hr 42, and H5 looks pretty darn similar. Nothing like the solutions 2 days ago. Are there significant changes after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 LOL HSE sniffing ozone at hr 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.