moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 0z GFS is a monster but it misses east after it looked to scrape the cape So is the 06 run. Does really deepen until it nears our latitude (east though) and the bottom drops out after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 New Brunswick looks like the place to be for this one. I like their location for heavy snow. Big rain and wind possible for my place. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Well even downeast Maine smokes cirrus on the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Pretty much all the models are now showing large ocean storms, just grazing the coast until hitting either Maine or Nova Scotia. GGEM, GFS, ECM all have monster storms in the Gulf of Maine, close but just teasingly far away. close enough for wind gusts knocking over a plastic lawn chair though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The ensembles are pretty juicy for eastern areas, but it still seems we have two camps. Camp 1 far east and Camp 2 that redevelops the low off the Delmarva in response to that energy and blows it up off the Cape.The euro ensemble would likely flip interior elevated areas like ORH to snow as they are closer to the storm as well...but too much spread exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 So is the 06 run. Does really deepen until it nears our latitude (east though) and the bottom drops out after that The 06z is what I was talking about I missed the 6 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 0z Euro ensembles looked a shade west of the 12z run but have not looked at in more detail as I'm on my phone I thought folks had said 12z ens were good too. Seems like for now most should plan on flakes and hope 12z today trends west..otherwise it's flakes in the air..wind advisories for most and HWW from the cape north along coast to maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The 0z Euro op was more of a 2 low structure elongated from the delmarva to the Gulf of Maine,I dobut we end up with that solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I thought folks had said 12z ens were good too. Seems like for now most should plan on flakes and hope 12z today trends west..otherwise it's flakes in the air..wind advisories for most and HWW from the cape north along coast to maine They are good,All I said is they looked a shade west of the 12z at 0z,There would be more folks on this board rejoicing if you ended up with what the 0z Euro ensembles have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 They are good,All I said is they looked a shade west of the 12z at 0z Scooter said only for far eastern areas..so seems like only BOS up to you are in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The ensembles are pretty juicy for eastern areas, but it still seems we have two camps. Camp 1 far east and Camp 2 that redevelops the low off the Delmarva in response to that energy and blows it up off the Cape.The euro ensemble would likely flip interior elevated areas like ORH to snow as they are closer to the storm as well...but too much spread exists. Cirrus out in GC, Scott? Methinks we may be too far removed. I'll hope for the best down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I'm only going by precip probs which looked best eastern areas to eastern CT or so. Again there exists a lot of spread it seems. Best bet is not to expect much and see what happens today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Scooter said only for far eastern areas..so seems like only BOS up to you are in the game Op run? If so yes, I can't see individual members on the euro ensembles but there has to be a lot of spread, He did mention getting snow back to orh on the ensembles so that is further west then the eastern areas....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I'm only going by precip probs which looked best eastern areas to eastern CT or so. Again there exists a lot of spread it seems. Best bet is not to expect much and see what happens today. That is really the whole point, Today we will be inside 100 hrs so we should start to see where this may go but thats not a given either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 Op run? If so yes, I can't see individual members on the euro ensembles but there has to be a lot of spread, He did mention getting snow back to orh on the ensembles so that is further west then the eastern areas....... Oh I thought you meant the 00z ens looked good. Plan on flakes and high wind..and hope for more with 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Cirrus out in GC, Scott? Methinks we may be too far removed. I'll hope for the best down south. Yeah you might be, but still..got to see what happens today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 Seems like the issue is the lead wave. The east solutions key on that while the west solutions like Euro/Euro ens/GGEM don't and keeps a stronger one farther west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Gotta have a more consolidated system if you want accumulating snow...that first s/w running up the eastern side of the digging trough mucks it up a bit and then you try and get a 2nd storm redevelop with the main energy, but it really has no WAA out ahead of it with the front-running system, so it does the wide right turn and really only gets Nova Scotia....that's the verbatim scenarios we've seen on several runs. There is definitely still a chance it ends up more consolidated and we get a band of accumulating snow somewhere. Esp over interior...but for now, I wouldn't be expecting much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 GYX not honking at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 It's interesting that the 00z euro actually took that second s/w and phased it so that it would probably be the dominant low. However the lead s/w screws up the process and allows it to go more wide right. I certainly would keep an eye out though this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Almost all of the 03z SREF members have the closed 500mb low well inland over the DC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The SREFs are completely useless this far out though. Fact, not opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The SREFs are completely useless this far out though. Fact, not opinion. This, And we can place a model associated with those in the same barrel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 GYX not honking at all From this mornings AFD: AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE MOVES SE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND PHASES WITH A DEVELOPING OCEAN STORM. THE RESULTANT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS ENOUGH COLD AIR WITH IT FROM CANADA FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 2" OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS TIME... AND SHOULD MELT OFF DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. WE COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The SREFs are completely useless this far out though. Fact, not opinion.An 87hr LFM would be more useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 From this mornings AFD: AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE MOVES SE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND PHASES WITH A DEVELOPING OCEAN STORM. THE RESULTANT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS ENOUGH COLD AIR WITH IT FROM CANADA FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 2" OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS TIME... AND SHOULD MELT OFF DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. WE COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. More like a chirp from a dying battery in a smoke detector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 More like a chirp from a dying battery in a smoke detector It's my decision whether we honk or not today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 It's my decision whether we honk or not today. Haha. Awesome. Guess we know who to complain about when the AFD out of GYX does not forecast a wide swath of 6-10"+. But seriously, starting to get the feeling that those of us outside of downeast Maine are gunna sit and wave as a strengthening system passes to our east. I just can't see this system being able to make the turn quick enough north if it is going to dive down to Wilmington with the trough being as progressive as it is modeled to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Haha. Awesome. Guess we know who to complain about when the AFD out of GYX does not forecast a wide swath of 6-10"+. But seriously, starting to get the feeling that those of us outside of downeast Maine are gunna sit and wave as a strengthening system passes to our east. I just can't see this system being able to make the turn quick enough north if it is going to dive down to Wilmington with the trough being as progressive as it is modeled to be. I take requests. As things stand now, it does look like consensus is a near miss. That would still give me snow in my eastern zones though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 It's my decision whether we honk or not today. Hope you have to and not use the sound from a whoopee cushion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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