Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 Woah Ryan took a hard no storm at all stance on his FB feed.Even with 00z ens showing snow. On air he said rain showers .. Maybe a few hill town flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 So the last nor'easter sought out the warmer water. This one will ignore it and come north. Got it. Seems like my long term shift tomorrow will be eventful anyway. The rain in Maine falls mainly on the plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Even with 00z ens showing snow. On air he said rain showers .. Maybe a few hill town flakeswould not surprise me if that pans out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 would not surprise me if that pans out If there weren't a lot of uncertainty, none of us would have any reason to be here. Beautiful sunset out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 would not surprise me if that pans outToo early to call for a snowstorm, but I'd certainly warn my readers/ viewers our most reliable computer guidance shows exactly that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Too early to call for a snowstorm, but I'd certainly warn my readers/ viewers our most reliable computer guidance shows exactly thatcould be mainly rain too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Even with 00z ens showing snow. On air he said rain showers .. Maybe a few hill town flakes The precip out your way on the 00z did not look robust at all. I support his stance at the moment for his domain. Odds of more than flurries aren't high right now. It's only Tuesday...I'm sure he talked about the possibilities. GFS is a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Too early to call for a snowstorm, but I'd certainly warn my readers/ viewers our most reliable computer guidance shows exactly that Shocked that you would warn viewers and play it up a bit. Also the bolded sounds like it would confuse the heck out of people...our most reliable data shows snowstorm but not calling for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The precip out your way on the 00z did not look robust at all. I support his stance at the moment for his domain. Odds of more than flurries aren't high right now. It's only Tuesday...I'm sure he talked about the possibilities. GFS is a whiff. Decent shift west from 12z but not enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 The precip out your way on the 00z did not look robust at all. I support his stance at the moment for his domain. Odds of more than flurries aren't high right now. It's only Tuesday...I'm sure he talked about the possibilities. GFS is a whiff. He didn't.As I've said.. The high winds are likely going to be the biggest newsmaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Too early to call for a snowstorm, but I'd certainly warn my readers/ viewers our most reliable computer guidance shows exactly that A meteorologists job isn't to regurgitate what the models show. It is to give what they deem the best forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 Shocked that you would warn viewers and play it up a bit. Also the bolded sounds like it would confuse the heck out of people...our most reliable data shows snowstorm but not calling for it.Of course you mention it as a possibility. You don't just dismiss it lol. In essence you're saying the GFS/gefs are more correct if you're not mentioning it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 In January we'd be saying congrats North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 could be mainly rain too. This. Even the Euro Ensembles were no slam dunk snowstorm...sure you get QPF and a good track but the thing has to really go to town for snow. It ain't a lock that it would just be a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Of course you mention it as a possibility. You don't just dismiss it lol. In essence you're saying the GFS/gets are more correct if you're not mentioning it Plenty of time left. You've had one or two good ensemble runs and one good operational runs while the other models show no storm. Ryan seems to know what he's doing. You don't change your forecast around every model cycle. If it's there at 00z tonight, it's only Wednesday morning and you're still 84-96 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 This. Even the Euro Ensembles were no slam dunk snowstorm...sure you get QPF and a good track but the thing has to really go to town for snow. It ain't a lock that it would just be a snowstorm. Could not see temp profiles but they did not look that cold just from what i could see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The lack of downstream ridging (SE of NS) as dynamics drop to the nadir of the trough is disconcerting... Perhaps those heights out there are underdone ... Thing is, there could be now-cast wiggle room here... If that much cold heights and cold plume at 850 moves out over the still warm west Atlantic, there would be a powder keg convective leaf [most likely], and that would dump a shyster load of latent heat out there ...pump things up a bit. Would that feedback on a farther west track? Has in the past... who knows. In any event ... I could argue either scenario and be right... The NAO is not offering a lot of blocking help... that would tend to be GL track; that almost argues for a west correction over all.. However, if in deed lax antecedent ridge in the west Atlantic takes place, that could easily allow a wider right swing, and then go N an clock NS/NF and the Maritimes. I know that's not what folks wanna hear.... but it's in the cards too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 Plenty of time left. You've had one or two good ensemble runs and one good operational runs while the other models show no storm. Ryan seems to know what he's doing. You don't change your forecast around every model cycle. If it's there at 00z tonight, it's only Wednesday morning and you're still 84-96 hours out. Never said he didn't. of course he does.. All i said if it was ME..i would mention that our best computer guidance is indicating a significant snowfall this weekend..while other less reliable guidance is just showing snow showers..That's all.. I'd mention it, so that the public is at least aware of it as a possible outcome..not that you're forecasting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Euro ensembles aren't infallible either. If we have this after 12z tomorrow then it changes the game. Until then there are simply too many variables to have someone honking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 Euro ensembles aren't infallible either. If we have this after 12z tomorrow then it changes the game. Until then there are simply too many variables to have someone honking. Noone is honking or should be..Just mentioning one of several possible solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Noone is honking or should be..Just mentioning one of several possible solutions I thought horns should be honking but cars should be in the middle lane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I thought horns should be honking but cars should be in the middle lane? And arms out the window this week for a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 A little pet peeve rant,seen this said in multiple places. "No blocking, progressive" Many blockbusters over the years have been hard hitting quick movers. Progressive does not preclude impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 A little pet peeve rant,seen this said in multiple places. "No blocking, progressive" Many blockbusters over the years have been hard hitting quick movers. Progressive does not preclude impact. Good point. Wide right does, though. Maybe I can get some flakes in Blacksburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Good point. Wide right does, though. Maybe I can get some flakes in Blacksburg. Progressive and exiting off the Outer Banks is usually naso good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The good news is that the 18z NAM at 84 hrs is identical, and I mean dead nuts identical, to the 18z GFS. When has the NAM had a clue at 84 hrs, ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The good news is that the 18z NAM at 84 hrs is identical, and I mean dead nuts identical, to the 18z GFS. When has the NAM had a clue at 84 hrs, ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Hold on now, I didn't mention the bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 You aren't going to get even close to an answer until another 24 hrs and that is generous. Clue is more like it.The 18z ensembles continue the spread. Models continue to trend stronger with ridging near the Davis Straits so we'll see if that means anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 You aren't going to get even close to an answer until another 24 hrs and that is generous. Clue is more like it.The 18z ensembles continue the spread. Models continue to trend stronger with ridging near the Davis Straits so we'll see if that means anything.What could more ridging there mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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