Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 It's east..but it shows us that the GFS is likely wrong taking the s/w into Quebec. The danger is this missing SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Now 980mb, Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 CAR getting clobbered at hr 129 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I'll take it. Bomb, We can work out the details later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 Seems a little crazy climowise to have it dig that far south. A little blocking would really help us out and tuck it in closer for the qpf queens off to the NW if it does in fact end up that far south. I'd bet the ensemble mean doesn't dig it that far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 That would be a great storm for SE Mass in January too. But too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Seems a little crazy climowise to have it dig that far south. A little blocking would really help us out and tuck it in closer for the qpf queens off to the NW if it does in fact end up that far south. I'd bet the ensemble mean doesn't dig it that far south Start the phase sooner and it would be NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 You can see it didn't phase the second s/w like it did at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 That would be a great storm for SE Mass in January too. But too warm. What's often neglected is how many spooky ghosts get sucked into the system during a Halloween storm. The chill these spectres leave in the air can significantly impact temperatures, leaving localized pockets of sub-freezing temps, especially near larger cemeteries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Start the phase sooner and it would be NWYeah it's all about timing...actually doesn't look all that much different than the 12z GGEM in the near miss category. Low plows into the Canadian Maritimes pummeling downeast Maine.No glaring issues as all models are digging it way south now...just another viable solution that'll change in another 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 What's often neglected is how many spooky ghosts get sucked into the system during a Halloween storm. The chill these spectres leave in the air can significantly impact temperatures, leaving localized pockets of sub-freezing temps, especially near larger cemeteries. The answer to the age old question of storms creating their own cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Yeah it's all about timing...actually doesn't look all that much different than the 12z GGEM in the near miss category. Low plows into the Canadian Maritimes pummeling downeast Maine. No glaring issues as all models are digging it way south now...just another viable solution that'll change in another 12 hours. Its is timing, A little sooner and its a bomb up the coast, Later and its a whiff East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The Euro verbatim is over a foot for interior Maine, everyone else is a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Its is timing, A little sooner and its a bomb up the coast, Later and its a whiff East This run would still have advisory snows down to Sugarloaf and Rangley...CAR gets warning snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 This run would mean this for BTV essentially : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 Chances are it's not going to dig over the Carolinas lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The Euro verbatim is over a foot for interior Maine, everyone else is a cold rain. Hey now the Euro snow graphics have a dusting to an inch over a large part of VT from orographic showers lol, and dusting to 2" over the northern half of New Hampshire before you get to the big stuff in Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Chances are it's not going to dig over the Carolinas lol Well 00z did too. We just didn't quite sling shot it back NW enough at 12z. Regardless, this one has a long ways to go before any type of confident forecast can be made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Chances are it's not going to dig over the Carolinas lolIt's about the phase. It could not dig as far south but if it doesn't get it's act together it still misses. Actually by going so far south it sort of slows it down and let's it get ripped north before getting too Far East. If it doesn't go as far south, it could just go further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Hey now the Euro snow graphics have a dusting to an inch over a large part of VT from orographic showers lol, and dusting to 2" over the northern half of New Hampshire before you get to the big stuff in Maine. The euro snow graphics aren't even accurate to use for "verbatim" analysis anyway. I've seen it paint snow where there is no way it would snow and also not paint snow where soundings would support it. Particularly in marginal boundary layer situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 This run would still have advisory snows down to Sugarloaf and Rangley...CAR gets warning snows. Weenie snow maps its 12-18" north of KHUL to Ft Kent, 8" back west to from SR north to Black River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 Ukie is farther north and west with low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 It's about the phase. It could not dig as far south but if it doesn't get it's act together it still misses. Actually by going so far south it sort of slows it down and let's it get ripped north before getting too Far East. If it doesn't go as far south, it could just go further east. This is an excellent point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Honestly the 500mb low seperated so much from the rest of the trough at one point that I almost thought it was going to cut off over the TN Valley, but then it opened back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The euro snow graphics aren't even accurate to use for "verbatim" analysis anyway. I've seen it paint snow where there is no way it would snow and also not paint snow where soundings would support it. Particularly in marginal boundary layer situations. The surface freezing lines don't lie, and the surface stays above freezing throughout except in interior Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Its is timing, A little sooner and its a bomb up the coast, Later and its a whiff East Sears came by this morning and tuned up the snow blower. That might give you a sense of what it will do. Overcast that has settled in notwithstanding, it's been a beauty out there today. 56.6/47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The euro snow graphics aren't even accurate to use for "verbatim" analysis anyway. I've seen it paint snow where there is no way it would snow and also not paint snow where soundings would support it. Particularly in marginal boundary layer situations. It seemed ok with light orographic precip over the mountains of VT/NH...regardless of the main storm I don't think it's unrealistic for the NNE mountains to see nuisance D-2" type snow shower activity out of the trough. Totally irrelevant from the main storm. It did paint a coating of snow in SE Mass that looked suspect based on the 950mb temps, but it did have steady precip there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I still see low confidence for accumulating snow in the interior, extremely low at the coast. We've had a few good runs 100+ hours out. A few months from now, deep into winter, there would be no serious considerations or 10 pages of post for this threat. People are very excited for snow understandably. Maine is another story, they have a much better confidence of accumulating snow. Sure, Euro wasn't the awesome run it was last night. But we are far from our last swing at this time frame 5+ days out...Keep your head's on straight people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Sears came by this morning and tuned up the snow blower. That might give you a sense of what it will do. Overcast that has settled in notwithstanding, it's been a beauty out there today. 56.6/47 Did it run when he was finished? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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