dryslot Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 On 11/1/2014 at 6:08 PM, powderfreak said: The differences in Maine are astounding between the EURO and GFS. Especially the Maine Mtns. Sugarloaf gets the same QPF as eastern VT. The precip is further east on the euro up here, Looking at radar and comparing the Euro at 18z, The radar looks west of the model out put Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 GFS and Euro at 24 are virtually in the same position lat/long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 On 11/1/2014 at 5:55 PM, OceanStWx said: Hmm, dual-pol suggests the melting layer is getting down around 1,000 feet up here. Sunday River still reporting rain at the base, but I think that's around 800 ft. Thats sounds about right. We are cooling down pretty good here at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Further east of the other guidance and not much impact with the main deepening event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Good luck GYX with that forecast...Sunday River to Sugarloaf have 0.75-1" QPF on GFS and 0.2-0.35" on EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 actually the GFS is in decent agreement there...so... Big circulation, too - interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 On 11/1/2014 at 6:11 PM, Ginxy said: GFS and Euro at 24 are virtually in the same position lat/long Euro looks 4mb weaker at that same time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Always that death band a little farther NW than progged will mean parts of Maine are under near blizzard conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 On 11/1/2014 at 6:11 PM, dryslot said: The precip is further east on the euro up here, Looking at radar and comparing the Euro at 18z, The radar looks west of the model out put The differences are astounding for a 24 hour forecast...like a 1.0" QPF difference for you between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 On 11/1/2014 at 6:19 PM, powderfreak said: The differences are astounding for a 24 hour forecast...like a 1.0" QPF difference for you between the two. Pretty big spread, I guess you would have to blend them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 On 11/1/2014 at 6:13 PM, powderfreak said: Good luck GYX with that forecast...Sunday River to Sugarloaf have 0.75-1" QPF on GFS and 0.2-0.35" on EURO. I have the loaf at 8.5" at the summit. Sounds like 0.60" or so QPF to me! Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Hell of a now cast situation developing considering euro slight correction west. Halftime at the game. SOAKED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 On 11/1/2014 at 6:22 PM, OceanStWx said: I have the loaf at 8.5" at the summit. Sounds like 0.60" or so QPF to me! Ha Finger hovering over the trigger? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 On 11/1/2014 at 6:26 PM, dryslot said: Finger hovering over the trigger? lol We're making a final sweep of the wx/snow grids as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Ha,split the difference Chris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 On 11/1/2014 at 6:22 PM, OceanStWx said: I have the loaf at 8.5" at the summit. Sounds like 0.60" or so QPF to me! Ha Good compromise. The EURO horse is riding alone on those QPF progs. It's not infallible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 how do mid level lows look on Euro/ orientation/ deepening etc. Lets get this anomalous beast to tick one more time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 wildcat base cam white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 On 11/1/2014 at 6:28 PM, CoastalWx said: Ha,split the difference Chris. Honestly, the upper air progs on the Euro could argue for a tick west for QPF. That banding is real close to the coast up here. Also, I can no longer find a melting layer on the 0.5 scan. That means we're getting mixed precip awfully close to the RDA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 thinkin of a chase to somewhere in maine. ideally above 1k 1c 925's just south of maine coast. 850's cold w a NNE drain. Wish N Conway/Jackson area was more favored. Tons of options there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 On 11/1/2014 at 6:40 PM, OceanStWx said: Honestly, the upper air progs on the Euro could argue for a tick west for QPF. That banding is real close to the coast up here. Also, I can no longer find a melting layer on the 0.5 scan. That means we're getting mixed precip awfully close to the RDA. That's what I am trying to figure out tomorrow morning. Comparing 00z and 12z euro, you can easily see the curl west at 500mb over the Gulf of Maine. Although I am not doing surface wx as I originally thought..lol, just weenieing out a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 On 11/1/2014 at 6:45 PM, CoastalWx said: That's what I am trying to figure out tomorrow morning. Comparing 00z and 12z euro, you can easily see the curl west at 500mb over the Gulf of Maine. Although I am not doing surface wx as I originally thought..lol, just weenieing out a bit. Very near the coast of ME I think it's definitely underdone. It has support from the CMC, but the CMC is much farther east with the upper dynamics so it makes sense within its own forecast. The Euro just seems to have cut the NW edge too fine. So I'm playing it closer to the NAM QPF (GFS still being a weenie with 2.5" QPF for RKD). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 On 11/1/2014 at 6:51 PM, OceanStWx said: Very near the coast of ME I think it's definitely underdone. It has support from the CMC, but the CMC is much farther east with the upper dynamics so it makes sense within its own forecast. The Euro just seems to have cut the NW edge too fine. So I'm playing it closer to the NAM QPF (GFS still being a weenie with 2.5" QPF for RKD). Nam still had decent qpf totals, More in line with the gfs, More so then the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 On 11/1/2014 at 6:56 PM, dryslot said: Nam still had decent qpf totals, More in line with the gfs, More so then the Euro An even blend of the 4 major models gives RKD 1.75". I think my storm total QPF grid is about 1.85" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 On 11/1/2014 at 6:57 PM, OceanStWx said: An even blend of the 4 major models gives RKD 1.75". I think my storm total QPF grid is about 1.85" What was the blend back here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 On 11/1/2014 at 6:59 PM, dryslot said: What was the blend back here? I've got LEW on the wrong side of 1", but close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 On 11/1/2014 at 7:03 PM, OceanStWx said: I've got LEW on the wrong side of 1", but close. My guess was going to be 0.75-1.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 On 11/1/2014 at 7:06 PM, dryslot said: My guess was going to be 0.75-1.25" I think my "official" grid is 0.90", but most of that is today/tonight when it's raining. Though I think there is going to be more snow around this evening than originally thought. We're close to flipping in a lot of places just away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Drove Rte 2 from Leominster to Gardner. Temps ranged from 43 to 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 On 11/1/2014 at 7:09 PM, OceanStWx said: I think my "official" grid is 0.90", but most of that is today/tonight when it's raining. Though I think there is going to be more snow around this evening than originally thought. We're close to flipping in a lot of places just away from the coast. 0.32 in the cocarahs here so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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