Baroclinic Zone Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Lead wave really pushes the baroclinic zone offshore. Would need to see that dampen out in time for a more consolidate, tucked in solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 4:02 PM, CoastalWx said: They didn't have the 3.5" on the Tennessee bench measured by Kerry Collins? Watered down my Sam Adams Octoberfest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 3:56 PM, dryslot said: Pretty sharp cut off to the NW with precip too sharp imho, Ema and the Cape are going to get hit by a strong storm, probably mostly rain but could flash snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 If it was more developed at the latitude of the cape, that track could smoke SNE but it needs a much bigger CCB, or a bent back warm front or something. Needs to get precip advecting west rather than having it all front end loaded...need the comma head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 4:03 PM, powderfreak said: I don't know if that's cold enough when it passes the Cape for any flakes until you get into downeast ME. Someone at NCEP is laughing though...trying to make this tease with no gratification. image.jpg It would be cold enough here, But i am in a MPM situation with qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 4:04 PM, CoastalWx said: Not much more, but a euro solution probably would bring it west a bit. The Cape actually tickles the CCB, but a bit too warm there. Yeah, that's pretty much my hunch. The potential is only so great as the reasonable room for adjustment -- if such adjustment even occurs. It IS bizarre nonetheless to see something so "close" right now. He who longs for a square peg in a round hole often ends up with tears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 4:07 PM, Ginxy said: too sharp imho, Ema and the Cape are going to get hit by a strong storm, probably mostly rain but could flash snow I question it as well, I think the distribution would be more to the NW some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 If the GFS had less of a mess in Quebec, it probably would get eastern MA. That lead s/w screws things so you need an almost perfect display of all the energy digging along the backside of the trough to pull it NW. Not an easy task. At least the waters east of HSE are warm, so easy to recover baroclinicity, but you still need time. Can't do it in 6-12 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Should at least keep posters checking in as it did not trend unfavorably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 4:07 PM, powderfreak said: If it was more developed at the latitude of the cape, that track could smoke SNE but it needs a much bigger CCB, or a bent back warm front or something. Needs to get precip advecting west rather than having it all front end loaded...need the comma head. Not gonna happen unless this develops more consolidated. We still have disrupted conveyors with the front running s/w lowering the heights ahead of the main show...thus our WAA is cut off and mid-level circulation is never really strengthened until way too late. We'll need to start seeing solutions that show this in the next 12-24 hours or it's not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 4:11 PM, ORH_wxman said: Not gonna happen unless this develops more consolidated. We still have disrupted conveyors with the front running s/w lowering the heights ahead of the main show...thus our WAA is cut off and mid-level circulation is never really strengthened until way too late. We'll need to start seeing solutions that show this in the next 12-24 hours or it's not going to happen. That's right, Daddy. You look so strong when you bring the hammer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Interesting that in the last 3 runs (00z, 06z & new 12z) the vort max with upper level low has shifted westward. My question is....will it or can it? I am watching how the two streams interact and placement. Yes the 12z run shows now a little more negative tilt. I don't think the GFS is "bowing down to the euro" but it looks to be spitting out different. I am not an expert in numerical modeling but frankly I interested why its rolling back westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 4:08 PM, Zeus said: Yeah, that's pretty much my hunch. The potential is only so great as the reasonable room for adjustment -- if such adjustment even occurs. It IS bizarre nonetheless to see something so "close" right now. He who longs for a square peg in a round hole often ends up with tears. I'm interested here only because of my longtitude, but I am probably in the minority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 4:11 PM, ORH_wxman said: Not gonna happen unless this develops more consolidated. We still have disrupted conveyors with the front running s/w lowering the heights ahead of the main show...thus our WAA is cut off and mid-level circulation is never really strengthened until way too late. We'll need to start seeing solutions that show this in the next 12-24 hours or it's not going to happen. Do we have a turd in the punchbowl emoticon? Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 If you follow the progression of the cold front crossing the area today it actually appears that the initial wave that develops is almost on the tail end of the front itself, or am I misreading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 4:15 PM, OceanStWx said: Do we have a turd in the punchbowl emoticon? Ha. That's happened a few times over the previous winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 4:15 PM, CoastalWx said: I'm interested here only because of my longtitude, but I am probably in the minority. ditto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 4:07 PM, dryslot said: It would be cold enough here, But i am in a MPM situation with qpf Just do what everyone tells him to do..."don't worry the bands will be further NW than progged you'll be fine. Meteorology not modelology." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 4:16 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: ditto You guys wanna road trip it out to the Cape? Get some clams? Eh? Clams? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 4:16 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: ditto I'm not expecting much for our area, but certainly some strong winds and perhaps some flurries aren't unreasonable. Far enough out to have a 50 mile wiggle mean something different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 4:18 PM, powderfreak said: Just do what everyone tells him to do..."don't worry the bands will be further NW than progged you'll be fine. Meteorology not modelology." I don't have a shawl, But i have a camo blanket i could wrap myself in sitting on a 5 gal pail in the middle of the woods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 4:13 PM, Zeus said: That's right, Daddy. You look so strong when you bring the hammer. They don't call me El Diablo Blanco for nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 that was an interesting run for the Cape, High winds and pounding rain and maybe backside flip as thicknesses crash to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The GFS develops very strong winds on the backside of the 500mb low. If we can get it to track about 100 miles closer to the coast that might end up as the main story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 4:23 PM, IsentropicLift said: The GFS develops very strong winds on the backside of the 500mb low. If we can get it to track about 100 miles closer to the coast that might end up as the main story. Just 100 miles closer? Gosh. What month does the next run of the European come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 4:19 PM, CoastalWx said: I'm not expecting much for our area, but certainly some strong winds and perhaps some flurries aren't unreasonable. Far enough out to have a 50 mile wiggle mean something different. Yeah, few gusts and some showers are my expectations. Should make for a fun weekend of soccer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Well at least Ocean State Chris will have to worry about HWW in his coastal zones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 100 miles closer? Eh, good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 On 10/29/2014 at 4:24 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Yeah, few gusts and some showers are my expectations. Should make for a fun weekend of soccer. 40 mph gusts temps upper 30s lower 40s, perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 Well it does at least give us what has always looked most likely which is the big winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.