powderfreak Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 6:47 PM, dryslot said: Weenie snow maps its 12-18" north of KHUL to Ft Kent, 8" back west to from SR north to Black River We must have different maps haha, I've got like 3" at Sunday River and 6"+ from Rangley WNW, but agree on the 14-20" HUL-FVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Based on the 00z Euro Ens, 12z op GFS, op Euro, and GEFS this one is pretty much on life support. If you want flakes I'd prefer no phase at all and let the ULL swing overhead on its own Sunday AM as opposed to phasing with the main low and creating a stronger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 6:54 PM, powderfreak said: We must have different maps haha, I've got like 3" at Sunday River and 6"+ from Rangley WNW, but agree on the 14-20" HUL-FVE. Eh its a ball park back west but doesn't really matter, I take them with a grain of salt, The SV snow maps i have found not to be to good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 6:49 PM, IsentropicLift said: The surface freezing lines don't lie, and the surface stays above freezing throughout except in interior Maine.well that 33 degree snow bomb in Oct 11 disagrees with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 6:55 PM, CT Rain said: Based on the 00z Euro Ens, 12z op GFS, op Euro, and GEFS this one is pretty much on life support. If you want flakes I'd prefer no phase at all and let the ULL swing overhead on its own Sunday AM as opposed to phasing with the main low and creating a stronger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 6:55 PM, CT Rain said: Based on the 00z Euro Ens, 12z op GFS, op Euro, and GEFS this one is pretty much on life support. If you want flakes I'd prefer no phase at all and let the ULL swing overhead on its own Sunday AM as opposed to phasing with the main low and creating a stronger storm. concur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 6:51 PM, sbos_wx said: I still see low confidence for accumulating snow in the interior, extremely low at the coast. We've had a few good runs 100+ hours out. A few months from now, deep into winter, there would be no serious considerations or 10 pages of post for this threat. People are very excited for snow understandably. Maine is another story, they have a much better confidence of accumulating snow. Sure, Euro wasn't the awesome run it was last night. But we are far from our last swing at this time frame 5+ days out...Keep your head's on straight people. Who's head in here isn't on straight? Don't see anything too ridiculous. And BS on the we wouldn't have pages of posts for this if it were mid-winter. Inside of 120 hours with last night's ECM run there'd be plenty of discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 6:51 PM, sbos_wx said: I still see low confidence for accumulating snow in the interior, extremely low at the coast. We've had a few good runs 100+ hours out. A few months from now, deep into winter, there would be no serious considerations or 10 pages of post for this threat. People are very excited for snow understandably. Maine is another story, they have a much better confidence of accumulating snow. Sure, Euro wasn't the awesome run it was last night. But we are far from our last swing at this time frame 5+ days out...Keep your head's on straight people.totally disagree,even in winter this would be a fascinating evolution and definitely a possible big event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 6:55 PM, CT Rain said: Based on the 00z Euro Ens, 12z op GFS, op Euro, and GEFS this one is pretty much on life support. If you want flakes I'd prefer no phase at all and let the ULL swing overhead on its own Sunday AM as opposed to phasing with the main low and creating a stronger storm. On 10/28/2014 at 6:58 PM, Ginxy said: concur Second. Both models had similar changes over the past 24 hours. Digging about 500 miles further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 @BigJoeBastardi: I still like my idea of WVA northeast with heaviest snows from ne pa into New England. More people seeing storm now, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 6:56 PM, dryslot said: Eh its a ball park back west but doesn't really matter, I take them with a grain of salt, The SV snow maps i have found not to be to good Come on dammit...Dryslot we need to hash this out because the snow map details 4-5 days out are THE most important thing there is! *There's the screw loose post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 7:01 PM, Damage In Tolland said: @BigJoeBastardi: I still like my idea of WVA northeast with heaviest snows from ne pa into New England. More people seeing storm now, eh? Well the JMA is north, as he points out. (I don't actually know this is true) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 7:01 PM, Damage In Tolland said: @BigJoeBastardi: I still like my idea of WVA northeast with heaviest snows from ne pa into New England. More people seeing storm now, eh? Good god that guy is a different breed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 7:03 PM, JC-CT said: Well the JMA is north, as he points out. (I don't actually know this is true) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I would give it some more time before pulling the plug on accumulating snow outside of Maine. Still a good amount of time. What we can count in I think is a cold raw and potentially wet weekend. Also, if the next set of models totally destroy any snow chance, cue a couple of people bringing up models nobody has ever heard of to show that it still might snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Pretty amazing how the Euro has swung back towards a southern solution. This ain't over either way. More runs to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 7:00 PM, Ginxy said: totally disagree,even in winter this would be a fascinating evolution and definitely a possible big event Well, any potential for snowfall is exciting. I just think the amount of things needed to lineup for anything considerable seems to put a big negative weight on my shoulders. Late October climate is always against it, and no need to remind me of what happened in 2011, I certainly haven't forget. This seems like a different scenario than that. Hate to say 'thread the needle' as everyone does but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Good golly miss Molly. I take a break from reading and this page goes two more pages forward. HAHA It doesn't matter if it is Fall, Dead of Winter and heck even Summer (not that we would be talking snow). The discussion would keep on going. Now within 120 hours the model wars continue to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 973 in the GOM,Kevin will get his winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 7:18 PM, Ginxy said: 973 in the GOM,Kevin will get his winds. I have planned for a windy day at the least, If its not snow, I hope its just showers a soaking at 35°F is not needed on Saturday although it looks more like Saturday night into Sunday so it don't matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 7:18 PM, Ginxy said: 973 in the GOM,Kevin will get his winds. That is a bomb, EURO solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 7:21 PM, toller65 said: That is a bomb, EURO solution?yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 7:22 PM, Ginxy said: yepThats always been the biggest threat with this to me. The crushing snow the 00z euro ens gave threw a wrench into that. We'll see what 12z say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Hard to buy the Euro 5h cutoff all the way south but let's see how that evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 A lot of Energy here that could come together...especially to make a 973mb storm. And lots of time left to go. Most scenarios are still on the table in my opinion. And even if it isn't snow...still could be a heck of a storm for New England regardless. Interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 30-40kt gusts region wide sunday @ euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 7:27 PM, sbos_wx said: 30-40kt gusts region wide sunday @ euro.Pats game at 4, upper 30s winds to 40 temps falling, yea my couch sounds better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 6:49 PM, IsentropicLift said: The surface freezing lines don't lie, and the surface stays above freezing throughout except in interior Maine. This is where soundings come in. Euro might show 34 at the sfc but -3c at 925-950mb. That's snow. Sometimes it has unrealistic lapse rates in the bottom 1500 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 On 10/28/2014 at 7:31 PM, ORH_wxman said: This is where soundings come in. Euro might show 34 at the sfc but -3c at 925-950mb. That's snow. Sometimes it has unrealistic lapse rates in the bottom 1500 feet. It did at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Euro ensemble mean is digging further south through 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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