November 2014 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

First (measurable) snowfall contest

 

Since all but three entrants went for no snow at PHX, that one will generate 10 points for these entrants if  there is no snow, but everyone else will get the 10 points if there is snow in the contest period, and the three entrants (see table) will get points based on five days per error point to a maximum of 5 so it's an automatic gain of 5 to 10 on the field. Otherwise, here is the scoring system to be used. As you would infer from the PHX points, this will be a golf-style contest, low score wins. For each station other than IAH and ATL, the points will be day-errors, example, you predict Dec 17th, actual is Dec 23rd, you get 6 error points. For IAH and ATL, where the ranges will be larger and some have said no snow (9/25 for IAH) then your error points will be a maximum of 20 and error dates will be divided by 2. If there is no snow and you're correct, you will have no error points. 

 

Measurable of course means 0.1" reported or more. Forecasts are listed in the order of first DCA snowfalls from earliest to latest. Contest ends April 15th or whenever each station has received snow. Ties will be broken by low score for any station with snow, and if that fails, for the second lowest score etc. We will call a correct date forecast a hole-in-one, one day off is an eagle and two days off is a birdie, three days off a par, and four days off a bogey, five days off a double-bogey, then everything else is an "other." Those will apply to IAH and ATL as well, we will think of them as the tough par fours. Will think of the PHX results more in terms of a long-drive contest because usually it's a long drive from PHX to find snow. (not always -- it certainly snows regularly in the hills around Tucson as we saw several times in recent years on the golf tournament coverage).

 

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ___ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH ___ DEN ___ SEA __ PHX

 

Winters Grasp _____ 63 _11-2010_11-0224_ 11-1413_ 11-14 1_ 12-05__ 01-10 __ 11-10 1_ 12-2324

 

Midlo Snow Maker__ 58 _11-27 3_ 11-1511_ 11-1512_ 11-14 1_ 12-22__ 01-10 __ 11-12 1_ 12-2930

 

Roger Smith ______ 32 _ 11-28 2_ 11-25 1_ 11-1215_ 11-0510_ 12-05__ 01-25 __ 11-11 0_ 12-03 4

 

OrangeburgWx ____ 74 _12-01__ 11-0125_11-0621_ 11-10 5_11-27 3_ 12-28 __ 11-07 4_ 12-1516  _ 02-26

 

metalicwx366 _____ 41 _ 12-02__ 12-02 6_ 11-28 1_ 11-19 4_ 12-24__ 01-21 __ 11-11 0_ 12-2930

 

RodneyS _________ 50 _ 12-03__ 12-1216_ 12-06 9_ 11-2914_ 01-20__ no ***__ 11-12 1_ 11-1910

 

Absolute Humidity___78_ 12-04__ 12-05 9_ 12-05 8_ 11-15 0_ 01-05__ 01-30 __ 11-11 0_ 01-2961

 

donsutherland.1 ____65_ 12-07__ 12-0711_ 11-23 4_ 11-22 7_ 01-05__ no ***__ 11-12 1_ 01-1042

 

Damage in Tolland __27 _12-08__ 11-29 3_ 11-29 2_ 11-2712_ 01-02__ 02-03 __ 11-17 6_ 12-03 4

 

wxdude64__________58 _ 12-08__ 12-01 5_ 11-27 0_ 11-16 1_ 12-30__ 01-19 __ 11-12 1_ 01-1951

 

blazess556 ________ 72_ 12-09__ 12-0913_ 11-21 6 _11-23 8_ 01-06__ no ***__ 11-13 2_ 01-1143

 

Isotherm _________ 68 _ 12-14__ 12-03 7_ 12-03 6_ 11-23 8_ 01-15__ no ***__ 11-18 7_ 01-0840

 

Stebo ____________ 56 _ 12-16__ 11-20 6_ 11-20 7_ 11-19 4_ 01-12__ no ***__ 11-12 1_ 01-0638

 

 

Consensus _________46 _ 12-16__ 12-05 9_ 11-21 6_ 11-19 4_ 01-05__ 01-21 __11-12 1_12-2526_ no ***

 

 

H2OTown__WX ____47 __ 12-16__ 12-05 9_ 11-24 3_ 11-22 7_ 01-12__ 01-31 __ 11-20 9_ 12-1819

 

UncleW __________ 17 __ 12-16__ 12-1014_ 11-30 3_ 11-15 0_ 01-01__ 12-31

 

bkviking __________15 __ 12-17__ 11-28 2_ 11-28 1_11-10 5_ 12-20__ no ***__ 11-08 3_ 11-25 4_ 12-10

 

wxallannj _________ 58__ 12-17__ 12-0711_ 12-01 4_ 11-23 8_ 01-14__ 01-21 __ 11-12 1_ 01-0434

 

Tom ____________ 105 __12-17__ 12-1519_ 11-0225_11-16 1_ 01-05__ no ***__ 11-17 6_ 01-2254

 

ksammut ________ 113 __12-18__ 12-1822_ 12-1922_ 12-0621_ 01-21__ 01-19 __ 12-0423_ 12-2425

 

goobagooba _______47 __12-20__ 12-1014_ 11-1413_ 11-15 0_ 01-01__ 12-31 __ 11-15 4_ 12-1516

 

SACRUS __________ 59 __12-21__ 12-0711_ 11-1611_ 11-10 5_ 12-17__ 12-20 __ 11-17 6_ 12-2526

 

mallow ___________ 55 __12-22__ 12-0812_ 11-21 6_ 11-19 4_ 01-07__ no ***__ 11-15 4_ 12-2829

 

SD _______________34 __12-24__ 12-0812_ 11-18 9_ 11-11 4_ 01-13__ 01-27 __ 11-07 4_ 12-04 5  02-09

 

hudsonvalley21 _____71 __12-26__ 12-1721_ 12-03 6_ 11-24 9_ 01-18__ 01-20 __ 11-11 0_ 01-0335

 

cpick79 ___________ 69 __12-30__ 12-05 9_ 11-0225_11-15 0_ 01-15__ no ***__ 11-15 4_ 12-3031
____________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

consensus values are medians, IAH favored for snow by 16/25 so a date computed, PHX consensus no snow

 

Results will be calculated for both the "original six" and the full slate.

 

Entries checked Nov 3 ... no edits please

 

Error points now posted for DEN which had 0.1" snow on 11-11. ORD reported a measurable amount of 1.4" on 15th and 11-15 the winning call for these four -- Absolute Humidity, Uncle W, goobagooba and cpick79. Absolute Humidity hit the first two stations right on (two holes in one) and had accumulated no other day errors until NYC registered 0.2" on 26th. Closest to that date was your host (25th) with one day error and BKviking (28th) with two. DCA and BOS reported trace amounts on 26th, BOS (edit 27th) has now reported 0.1" overnight and scores have been updated, wxdude64 hit this one on the money, BKviking and metalicwx366 one day off, Damage in Tolland two error points.

 

SEA had their first snowfall today (0.8" on 29th), light snow has been reported for several hours and the same front left an icy overnight coating at my place near Vancouver (about 0.7"). Scores are now adjusted rather considerably from this latest addition (five down, four to go). Only two forecasters were already accumulating error points for SEA and they are among the lower scores. BKviking was four days early and both Damage in Tolland and your host were four days late on this one, and these are the lowest error points (bogeys in the golf metaphor). SD was five days out. 

 

This changes the overall confirmed totals considerably. BKviking with 15 now has a considerable lead on second place Damage in Tolland (27) and Roger Smith in third with 31, SD fourth at 34. UncleW is not playing the three western stations so his total of 15 remains fourth place in the original six section, where it's Wxdude64 holding down first place at 6 points, BKviking in second at 8 points and metalicwx366 at 11.

 

New -- the number in green beside your name is your total accumulated error points. The comparisons are not all that meaningful yet because early calls are accumulating error points while (as yet unknown) late calls are not. -- edited through Nov 30th. ATL has begun to see error points as the earliest call of 11-27 has been passed now. IAH won't start costing anyone until Dec 20th unless it happens to snow before then. The earliest of three calls for PHX is Dec 10th. In any case, no points will be accumulating for ATL, IAH or PHX until snowfall occurs or the contest ends. So any further points will come from DCA either continuing snowless or breaking into the ranks of the measurably snowed upon (must have been a close call on 26th as IAD reported about 1.5").

 

 

NOTE _ This table will migrate to the December forecast thread, and no further score editing will take place  here. Updated scores in the current month.

[Roger Smith]

After five days ...

 

____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

______5d___ +1.0 _ +0.3 _-1.6 __ -1.1 _ -6.7 _ -2.6 __ +3.7 _ -0.2 _ +4.4

 

_____ p12 __ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ 0.0 __ -3.0 _ -2.5 _ +1.0 __ +3.3 _ +2.5 _ +3.5

 

(predictions through 12 days based on current NWS 7d forecasts, trend is rapidly upward across the south, negative for ORD and roughly holding steady on both coasts. ... beyond that the models seem to be indicating more of the same, DEN will be rather volatile but slight bias towards warmth signal stronger than cold signal, but could see this changing in future model runs so probably all forecasts still in the hunt.)

 

next update after ten days.

[Roger Smith]

after 10, 12 and 14 days with predictions updated to 21st from NWS fx and 30th from GFS maps

 

____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

_____10d___ +0.6 _ --0.5 _--1.4 __--0.8 _--4.2 _--3.2 __+6.0 _+2.7 _ +3.9

_____12d___ +1.8 _ +0.8 __ 0.0__--1.8 _--3.3 _--4.2 __--1.1 _+3.0 _ +2.1

_____14d___ +0.6 _ --0.5 _--0.6 __--3.9 _--5.3 _--6.8 __--5.4 _+3.1_ +0.6

 

_____ p21 __ --3.2 _ --3.0 _--3.0 __--7.6 _--7.4 _--6.4 __--7.0 _ +2.5 _ --0.8

 

_____ p30 __ --1.2 _ --1.2 _ --1.4 __--4.6 _--4.2 _--3.6 __--3.5 _ +2.0 _ +0.9

 

 

(added on 12th at 0430h) _ Snowfall contest report a few posts back has now been edited to show error points for DEN which had its first measurable snowfall on the 11th, and also any error points accumulated so far at snow-free locations due to predictions being too early. This will be updated daily if I remember.

 

On the 11th DEN had an anomaly of -29 and had dropped from d10 report (+6.0) to +2.8. The anomaly on the 12th was -43 which dropped the anomaly almost four degrees. This trend slows down gradually as the core of the cold shifts further east and DEN looks set to return to milder weather after the 18th ...

 

Our first approximation of final numbers would work pretty well for Tenman and myself, but a lot can change especially if there is any sort of dramatic warming around the 25th, something the models had shown more in the past few days than on tonight's guidance.

[WEATHER53]

after 10 and 12 days with predictions updated to 19th from NWS fx and 28th from GFS maps

 

____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

_____10d___ +0.6 _ --0.5 _--1.4 __--0.8 _--4.2 _--3.2 __+6.0 _ +2.7 _ +3.9

 

_____12d___ +1.8 _ +0.8 __ 0.0__--1.8 _--3.3e_--4.2 __--1.1 _+3.0 _ +2.1

 

_____ p19 __ --3.0 _ --2.5 _--2.7 __--7.5 _--7.5 _--9.7 __--8.0 _ +3.0 _ --0.6

 

_____ p28 __ --0.2 _ --0.2 _ --0.4 __--4.5 _--4.0 _--4.5 __--3.5 _ +2.2 _ +1.0

 

 

(added on 12th at 0430h) _ Snowfall contest report a few posts back has now been edited to show error points for DEN which had its first measurable snowfall on the 11th, and also any error points accumulated so far at snow-free locations due to predictions being too early. This will be updated daily if I remember.

 

On the 11th DEN had an anomaly of -29 and had dropped from d10 report (+6.0) to +2.8. The anomaly on the 12th was -43 which dropped the anomaly almost four degrees.

 

The anomalies indicated from about 24th to 28th in the east are about 10-15 above normal which is the reason why the p28 numbers return to near zero, they will likely sit about where they are on 19th for several days before the predicted sharp rise.

This is Grade A cold for DC for next week, averaging -10 per day with a couple of -15's.  By the 21st DCA is going to be -4 for the month.  Cosgrove discussed in late October how he was skeptical of any real mild up for November and I agree. What we will be experiencing for the next week were it mid Jan would be a week long run of temps barely exceeding 32 with nightime lows in the teens. 

[Roger Smith]

Now we start the dreaded final countdown which will sweep up the information in the previous post and continue all the way to the bitter end with provisional tables to follow after the 20th.

 

____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

_____10d___ +0.6 _ --0.5 _--1.4 __--0.8 _--4.2 _--3.2 __+6.0 _+2.7 _ +3.9

_____12d___ +1.8 _ +0.8 __ 0.0__--1.8 _--3.3 _--4.2 __--1.1 _+3.0 _ +2.1

_____14d___ +0.6 _ --0.5 _--0.6 __--3.9 _--5.3 _--6.8 __--5.4 _+3.1_ +0.6

_____15d___ --0.6 _ --1.1 _--1.3 __--4.7 _--5.9 _--7.5 __--6.6 _+3.1__ 0.0

_____16d___ --1.0 _ --1.6 _--1.8 __--5.4 _--6.2 _--7.6 __--7.7 _+2.8_ --0.4

_____17d___ --1.1 _ --1.5 _--1.8 __--6.5 _--6.4 _--8.2 __--8.1 _+2.4_ --0.7

_____18d___ --1.9 _ --2.1 _--2.2 __--7.5 _--7.3 _--8.8 __--7.9 _+2.1_ --1.0

_____19d___ --2.7 _ --3.0 _--2.7 __--7.9 _--7.8 _--8.9 __--7.4 _+2.0_ --1.0

_____20d___ --2.6 _ --3.2 _--2.8 __--8.4 _--7.7 _--8.5 __--7.1 _+1.8_ --0.8

_____21d___ --3.2 _ --3.7 _--3.2 __--8.8 _--7.4 _--7.9 __--6.4 _+1.8_ --0.5

_____22d___ --3.4 _ --4.0 _--3.5 __--8.2 _--7.1 _--7.4 __--5.5 _+1.6_ --0.4

_____23d___ --3.2 _ --3.6 _--3.0 __--7.2 _--6.7 _--6.6 __--5.2 _+1.5 _--0.2

_____24d___ --2.3 _ --2.8 _--2.4 __--6.9 _--5.8 _--6.5 __--5.1 _+1.3 _ +0.2

_____25d___ --1.7 _ --2.1 _--1.8 __--7.2 _--5.4 _--6.4 __--4.8 _+1.2 _ +0.3

_____26d___ --1.8 _ --2.1 _--1.7 __--7.4 _--5.2 _--6.3 __--4.7 _+1.1 _ +0.8

_____27d___ --1.8 _ --2.3 _--1.9 __--7.6 _--5.4 _--6.2 __--4.0 _+1.4 _ +1.3

_____28d___ --2.0 _ --2.6 _--2.2 __--7.6 _--5.5 _--6.1 __--3.2 _+1.6 _ +1.4

_____29d___ --2.0 _ --2.8 _--2.5 __--7.2 _--5.4 _--5.5 __--2.3 _+1.8 _ +1.0

 

_____30d __ --1.6 _--2.4_ --2.2 __--6.7 _--5.0 _--4.9 __--2.1 _+2.0 _ +0.6

 

 ... 30th _ Tonight, these provisionals will change to final values. At that point they will be in bold type in the 30d row. Other numbers remain provisionals. Scoring tables will only be edited for confirmed values as time permits. Hoping to get a start overnight and finish the November scoring updates later Monday p.m.

 

The extreme forecast table will be adjusted as necessary in this thread.

[WEATHER53]

Now we start the dreaded final countdown which will sweep up the information in the previous post and continue all the way to the bitter end with provisional tables to follow after the 20th.

 

____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

_____10d___ +0.6 _ --0.5 _--1.4 __--0.8 _--4.2 _--3.2 __+6.0 _+2.7 _ +3.9

_____12d___ +1.8 _ +0.8 __ 0.0__--1.8 _--3.3 _--4.2 __--1.1 _+3.0 _ +2.1

_____14d___ +0.6 _ --0.5 _--0.6 __--3.9 _--5.3 _--6.8 __--5.4 _+3.1_ +0.6

_____15d___ --0.6 _ --1.1 _--1.3 __--4.7 _--5.9 _--7.5 __--6.6 _+3.1__ 0.0

_____16d___ --1.0 _ --1.6 _--1.8 __--5.4 _--6.2 _--7.6 __--7.7 _+2.8_ --0.4

_____17d___ --1.1 _ --1.5 _--1.8 __--6.5 _--6.4 _--8.2 __--8.1 _+2.4_ --0.7

 

_____ p24 __ --2.7 _ --3.0 _--3.0 __--7.2 _--7.2 _--6.0 __--6.7 _+1.3 _+0.6

 

_____ p30 __ --1.6 _ --1.6 _ --1.5 __--5.0 _--4.2 _--3.5 __--3.5 _+1.7 _+2.0

 

(18th _ update, slightly colder look in east for last five days of NOV on 12z model runs, slightly warmer in far west, pretty much back to where we were two days ago in the discussion, so have just removed that for now, bottom line is, only the 24th looks really warm for the east coast now, and oddly the 30th for ORD (57-60 F on today's map) but too late to do much beside return the anomaly to the easy-to-calculate scoring range).

 

Will post some provisional scoring tables in a few days.

Roger-that p30 for DCA,NYC,BOS is almsot a tripple bagger for my -1.5 calls, that would be sweet.

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for November 2014

 

FORECASTER ________________ DCA__NYC__BOS ___Total___ORD__ATL__IAH___Total ____ Score 

 

Confirmed anomalies ___________--1.6_--2.4_--2.2 ____<>___--6.7_--5.0_--4.9

 

Roger Smith ___________________98__ 88 __100___286 ____ 73__40 __42 ___ 155 ____ 441

Tenman Johnson _______________98__ 82 __ 86 ___ 266 ____ 15__ 30 __ 32 ____ 77 ____ 343

MidloSnowMaker _______________ 86__ 90__ 96 ___ 272 ____ 21__ 30 __ 00 ____ 51 ____ 323

Orangeburgwx _________________54__ 90 __ 88 ___ 232 ____ 00__ 24 __ 00 ____ 24 ____ 256

ksammut _____________________ 80__ 60 __ 72 ___ 212 ____ 09__ 00 __ 10 ____ 19 ____ 231

Winters Grasp _________________ 78__ 62 __ 76 ___ 216 ____ 15__ 00 __ 00 ____ 15 ____ 231

OHweather ____________________74__ 70 __ 90 ___ 234 ____ 08__ 08 __ 00 ____ 16 _ 250

________________(-8%) ________68__ 64 __ 83 ___ 215 ____ 07__ 07 __ 00 ____ 14 ____ 229

RodneyS ______________________88__ 64 __ 52 ___ 204 ____ 07__ 00 __ 00 ____ 07 ____ 211

 

Normal _______________________ 68__ 52 __ 56 ___ 176 ____ 00__ 00 __ 02 ____ 02 ____ 178

 

Mallow _______________________ 58__ 38 __ 40 ___ 132 ____ 08__ 14 __ 08 ____ 30 ____ 162

goobagooba ___________________60__ 40 __ 40 ___ 140 ____ 00__ 08 __ 10 ____ 18 ____ 158

SD __________________________ 48__ 38 __ 50 ___ 136 ____ 10__ 00 __ 00 ____ 10 ____ 146

Tom _________________________ 50__ 36 __ 54 ___ 140 ____ 02__ 00 __ 00 ____ 02 ____ 142

metallicwx366 _________________ 50__ 38 __ 46 ___ 134 ____ 11__ 00 __ 00 ____ 11 _ 145

_______________ (-4%) ________ 48__ 36 __ 44 ___ 128 ____ 11__ 00 __ 00 ____ 11 ____ 139

 

Consensus ____________________ 48__ 34 __ 42 ___ 124 ____ 06__ 00 __ 00 ____ 06 ____ 130

 

 

hudsonvalley21 ________________ 42__ 30 __ 42 ___ 114 ____ 00__ 00 __ 06 ____ 06 ____ 120

SACRUS ______________________ 36__ 28 __ 44 ___ 108 ____ 11__ 00 __ 00 ____ 11 ____ 119

Isotherm _____________________ 48__ 26 __ 26 ___ 100 ____ 08__ 00 __ 10 ____ 18 ____ 118

cpick79 _______________________38__ 32 __ 42 ___ 112 ____ 00__ 00 __ 00 ____ 00 ____ 112

UncleW _______________________48__ 32 __ 30 ___ 110 ____ 00__ 00 __ 00 ____ 00 ____ 110

Absolute Humidity ______________ 34__ 34 __ 34 ___ 102 ____ 06__ 00 __ 00 ____ 06 ____ 108

stebo ________________________ 32__ 26 __ 40 ____ 98 ____ 05__ 00 __ 00 ____ 05 _____103

wxdude64 ______ (-2%) ________ 31__ 24 __ 39 ____ 94 ____ 07__ 00 __ 00 ____ 07 _____101*

Damage in Tolland _____________ 12__ 26 __ 46 ____ 84 ____ 00__ 00 __ 00 ____ 00 _____ 84

H2OTown_WX _________________26__ 24 __ 18 ____ 68 ____ 00__ 00 __ 12 ____ 12 _____ 80

donsutherland.1 _______________ 32__ 20 __ 26 ____ 78 ____ 00__ 00 __ 00 ____ 00 _____ 78

bkviking _______ (-2%) _________31__ 16 __ 27 ____ 74 ____ 00__ 00 __ 00 ____ 00 _____ 74*

blazess556_____ (-3%) _________ 29__ 17 __ 23 ____ 69 ____ 00__ 00 __ 00 ____ 00 _____ 69*

wxallannj _____________________24__ 10 __ 22 ____ 56 ____ 00__ 00 __ 00 ____ 00 _____ 56

 

* small time penalties (1 pt where easterm stations are odd numbers) are in the scores and the totals for these forecasters.

 

 

Final scoring for western stations Nov 2014

 

FORECASTER __________________DEN__PHX__SEA ____ Totals

 

Confirmed Anomalies __________ --2.1_ +2.0_ +0.6

 

metallicwx366 _________________ 80__ 88 __ 92 _ 260

_______________ (-4%) ________ 77__ 84 __ 88 ____ 249

H2OTown_WX _________________70__ 94 __ 66 ____ 230

Damage in Tolland _____________ 40__100__ 88 ____ 228

goobagooba ___________________42__ 82 __ 92 ____ 216

 

Consensus ____________________ 48__ 76 __ 92 ____ 216

 

Orangeburgwx _________________36__ 76 __96 ____ 208

OHweather ___________________ 48__ 80 __ 96 _ 224

_______________ (-8%) ________44__ 74 __ 88 ____ 206

 

Normal _______________________58__ 60 __ 88 ____ 206

 

wxdude64 ____________________ 38__100__ 68 _ 206

_______________ (-2%) ________ 37__ 98 __ 67 ____ 202

hudsonvalley21 ________________ 48__ 76 __ 76 ____ 200

donsutherland.1 _______________ 34__ 74 __ 92 ____ 200

ksammut _____________________ 74__ 42 __ 82 ____ 198

wxallannj _____________________26__ 96 __ 76 ____ 198

SD __________________________ 48__ 80 __ 68 ____ 196

blazess556____________________ 30__ 74 __ 92 _ 196

______________ (-3%) _________ 29__ 72 __ 89 ____ 190

Winters Grasp _________________ 28__ 80 __ 82 ____ 190

Tom _________________________ 16__ 82 __ 88 ____ 186

MidloSnowMaker _______________ 20__ 90 __ 72 ____ 182

Isotherm _____________________ 08__ 92 __ 82 ____ 182

 

RodneyS _____________________ 92__ 20 __ 68 ____ 180
SACRUS ______________________36__ 52 __ 88 ____ 176

Roger Smith __________________ 72__ 44 __ 52 ____ 168

Absolute Humidity ______________70__ 26 __ 66 ____ 162

bkviking ______________________72__ 32 __ 60 _ 164

_____________ (-2%) __________71__ 31 __ 59 ____ 161 

stebo ________________________64__ 38 __ 58 ____ 160

 

cpick79 ______________________ 50__ 40 __ 62 ____ 152

Mallow _______________________00__ 74 __ 64 ____ 138

______________________________________________________________

 

[Roger Smith]

(note -- best viewed at 100% not higher, prevents line overflow)

 

 

<<< --------------- Updated Annual Scoring Report Jan-Nov 2014 --------------- >>>

 

 

FORECASTER ________ DCA_NYC_BOS___CL ____ORD__ATL__IAH__EX____TOT____high scores

 

__Annual anomalies __ --0.4_--1.4_--1.0__ ,, __--2.7_--0.7_--1.7 ____ ,, ________DC..NY.BO.OR.AT.IA....CL...EX....MO

 

 

Roger Smith _________ 822_ 816_ 770__2408___745_760_803___2308___4716___2 1 2 4 2 4 __ 1 _ 3_JAN,JUN,NOV

OHweather __________831_ 823_ 881__2535___591 _736 _626___1953___4488___1 0 1 0 2 0 __ 1 _ 0__SEP

Midlo Snow Maker _____806_848_898__2552___577 _662 _670___1909___4461___0 2 0 1 2 1 __ 0 _ 1

donsutherland.1 ______ 786_ 770_ 846__2402___604 _688 _734___2026___4428___0 1 1 0 1 1 __ 1 _ 1__APR

 

Consensus __________ 766_ 790_ 850__2406___552 _704 _702___1958___4364___1 0 0 0 2 0 __ 0 _ 0

 

Mallow _____________ 764_ 780_ 830__2374___596 _689 _692___1977___4351___0 1 1 1 0 0 __ 0 _ 0

Isotherm ___________ 782_ 750_ 776__2308___585 _684 _716___1985___4293___1 1 0 0 0 0 __ 0 _ 0

Goobagooba _________754_ 790_ 822__2366___581 _652 _680___1913___4279___0 1 2 1 1 0 __ 1 _ 0

blazess556 __________ 736_ 796_ 842__2374___491 _674 _714___1879___4253___0 1 1 0 1 0 __ 1 _ 1

Tenman Johnson _____ 794_ 726_ 740__2260___544 _675 _762___1981___4241___3 1 0 0 1 3 __ 3 _ 1__MAR

Tom _______________ 727_ 749_ 793__2269___596 _707 _603___1906___4175___0 0 1 0 1 0___ 0 _ 0__OCT

hudsonvalley21 ______ 729_ 749_ 794__2272___503 _663 _718___1884___4156___0 0 0 0 1 0 __ 0 _ 0

stebo ______________ 704_ 680_ 816__2200___436 _662 _722___1820___4020___2 1 1 1 0 1 __ 0 _ 0

cpick79 _____________655_ 676_ 771__2102___520 _715 _650___1885___3987___0 0 0 0 0 2 __ 0 _ 1 __JUL

metalicwx366 ________777_ 699_ 657__2133___612 _620 _588___1820___3953___1 0 0 0 0 0 __ 0 _ 0

bkviking_____________726_ 703_ 785__2214___480 _687 _562___1729___3943___0 0 0 0 0 0 __ 0 _ 0 __MAY

UncleW _____________616_ 660_ 792__2068___520 _608 _738___1866___3934___0 0 1 1 0 3 __ 0 _ 0

 

Normal _____________ 648_ 626_ 732__2006___504 _646 _704___1854___3860___0 0 1 1 0 3 __ 1 _ 2

 

wxdude64 ___________679_ 711_ 789__2179___436 _511 _724___1671___3850___1 0 0 0 0 1 __ 0 _ 0

ksammut ____________696_ 704_ 748__2148___391 _572 _706___1669___3817___0 1 1 0 0 1 __ 1 _ 1__FEB

Damage in Tolland ____680_ 667_ 731__2078___528 _585 _498___1611___3689___1 0 0 0 1 0 __ 1 _ 0

SD _________________591_ 621_ 727__1939___455 _637 _572___1664___3603___0 0 0 1 1 0 __ 1 _ 0__AUG

RodneyS ____________592_ 662_ 754__2008___394 _454 _666___1514___3522___0 1 0 1 0 1 __ 0 _ 0

SACRUS @ __________ 252_ 240_ 246__ 738___203 _224 _268 ___695 ___1433___0 0 0 0 0 1 __ 0 _ 0

wxallannj @ _________ 238_ 218_ 226__ 682___250 _226 _266 ___742 ___1424___0 0 0 2 0 0 __ 0 _ 2

[Roger Smith]

(rest of table above)

 

Chicago Storm @* ___  186_ 153_ 148__ 487 ___117 _134 _ 97___ 348____ 835

H20Town_Wx @* ____ 151__126_ 162__ 439 ___ 83 __90 __72___ 245____ 684 ___0 0 1 0 0 0 __ 0 _ 0

weatherdude @*______ 66__120_ 150__ 336 ___115 __96 _126___ 337____ 673 ___0 0 0 0 1 0 __ 0 _ 0

IntenseBlizzard2014 %__78__ 80__ 66___224 ___ 92 __76 __84___ 252____ 476

mikehobbyst % _______ 84__ 92__ 78___254 ___ 64 __68 __80___ 212____ 466

chaser25973 % _______ 94__ 92__ 88___274 ___ 32 __44 __82___ 158____ 432 ___1 0 0 0 0 0 __ 1 _ 0

Quincy % ____________54__ 66__ 42___ 162 ___ 38 __82 __92___ 212____ 374

TropicalAnalystwx13 %_ 88__ 44__ 76___ 208 ___ 26 __76 __60___ 162____ 370

swflow % ___________ 74__ 66__ 82___ 222 ___ 90 __36 __00___ 126____ 348

OrangeburgWx %_____ 54__ 90__ 88___ 232 ___ 00__ 24 __00___ 024____ 256

wintersgrasp %_______ 78__ 62__ 76___ 216 ___ 15__ 00 __00___ 015____ 231

CSheridan12 % _______46__ 04__ 00____ 50 ___ 12__ 86 __44___ 144____ 192

Absolute Humidity %___24__ 38__ 32____ 94 ___ 06__ 00 __00___ 006____ 100

____________________________________

* missed one month

@ missed seven months

% missed ten months

 

Updated Four Seasons Award , winter, spring, summer and autumn - final (2013-)2014

 

FORECASTER _______________________ Win__ Spr__ Sum__ Aut _____ TOTAL

 

Roger Smith _________________________ 1 ___ 6 ___10 ___7 _________ 24

Goobagooba ________________________ 10 ___ 0 ___ 5 ___4 __________19

Donsutherland.1 ______________________7 __ 10 ___ 1 ___ 0 __________18

Midlo Snow Maker ____________________ 4 ___ 3 ___ 0 ___10 _________ 17

Mallow _____________________________ 2 ___ 5 ___ 4 ___ 1 __________12

Isotherm ____________________________0 ___ 7 ___ 3 ___ 1 __________11

Ohweather __________________________ 0 ___ 4 ___2 ___ 5 __________ 11

 

Consensus __________________________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 5 ___  2 __________11

 

blazess556 __________________________ 5 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___________ 8

SD _________________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 7 ___ 0 __________  7

hudsonvalley21 _______________________1 ___ 0 ___ 6 ___ 0 ___________ 7

Tenman Johnson______________________ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 6 ___________ 7

 

Normal______________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 7 ___ 0 ___________7

 

Damage in Tolland ____________________ 6 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___________ 6

Tom ________________________________1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 3 ___________ 5

metallicwx366 ________________________3 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___________ 4

stebo _______________________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___________ 2

uncleW _____________________________ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___________ 1

wxdude64____________________________1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___________ 1

cpick79 _____________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___________ 1

 

(seasonal points ... 10 for first, 7 for second, 6 for third etc, 1 pt for 8th to 10th)

[Roger Smith]

Updated Annual Scores for Optional western contest  (Jan-Nov 2014)

 

 

SET TO 100% SCREEN TO PREVENT LINE OVERFLOW.

 

____________________ DEN_PHX_SEA __________ best forecast awards ____ four season award ___ all 9

Annual anomalies _____--0.3_+2.4 _+2.5_______DEN PHX SEA _ Months ___Win,Spr,Sum,Aut TOT

 

 

Isotherm ____________776__824__821___2421 ___ 0 0 0 _ _ 0 _ _ _ _ _ _10, 4,10, 3 (27)___ 6714 ( 4)

Midlo Snow Maker ____ 738__886__771___2395 ___ 2 1 2 __ 1 __ OCT ___ 4,10, 6, 5 (25)___ 6856 ( 1)

donsutherland.1 ______768__792 __803___2363 ___ 0 1 1 __ 1 __JUL,SEP_ 1, 6, 7, 7 (21) ___ 6791 ( 3)

Mallow _____________ 790__782__771___2343 ___ 3 0 1 __ 3_FEB,APR,JUN_6, 7, 3, 1 (17)___ 6694 ( 5)

 

Consensus ___________778__762__717___2257 ___1 0 1 ___1 __ APR ____2, 6, 2, 1 (11)___ 6621 ( 6)

 

Goobagooba _________ 736__802__647___2185 ___ 1 1 0 __ 1 __ JAN ___ 7, 1, 1, 0 ( 9) ___ 6464 ( 6)

metalicwx366 ________ 679__779__684___2142 _______________NOV___ 1, 1, 0, 4 ( 6) ___ 6095 ( 9)

Roger Smith _________ 680__708__747___2139 ___ 1 0 2 __ 0 __________2, 0, 4, 0 ( 6) ___ 6855 ( 2)

blazess556 ___________682__696__696___2074 ___ 1 0 2 __ 0 _ _ _ _ ___ 5, 1 ,2, 0 ( 8) ___ 6327 ( 7)

wxdude64 ___________ 730__676__651___2057____1 0 1 __ 0 __________3, 0, 1, 1 ( 5) ___ 5907 (13)

Damage in Tolland ____ 574__770__712___2056 ___ 0 1 0 __ 1___ MAY ___0, 3, 0, 6 ( 9) ___ 5745 (14)

bkviking _____________679__725__567___1971____0 1 0 __ 1 __ MAR ___ 0, 2, 0, 0 ( 2) ___ 5914 (12)

Tom ________________619__669__575___1863 ______________________ 1, 0, 0, 0 ( 1) ___ 6038 (10)

 

Normal _____________ 756__556__552___1864 ______________________________________5724 (15)

 

SD _________________ 518__691__637___1846 ___0 2 0 __ 0 __________0, 0, 0,10 (10)____ 5449 (18)

hudsonvalley21*_______648__635__516___1799 ______________________0, 0, 1, 0 ( 1) ____ 5955 (11)

OHweather __________ 536__559__594___1689 ______________________0, 0, 0, 1 ( 1) ____ 6177 ( 8)

RodneyS ____________ 788__390__507___1685 ___1 1 1 __ 1 ___ AUG __ 0, 0, 5, 0 ( 5) ____ 5207 (19)

ksammut ____________608__498__569___1675 ______________________________________ 5492 (17)

cpick79*_____________562__629__430___1621 ___0 0 1 ______________ 0, 5, 0, 0 ( 5) ____ 5608 (15)
Stebo _______________650__444__416___1510 ______________________________________5530 (16)

wxallannj @ _________ 194__296__163 ____653 ___0 1 0 __ 0 __________0, 0, 0, 2 ( 2)_____2077

H20Town_Wx @* _____216__191__203 ____608______________________________________ 1292

SACRUS @ __________ 140__226__207____ 573 ______________________________________2006

Chicago Storm @*_____172__108__162____ 442 ______________________________________1277

Quincy @*** _________ 84__100___80 ____264 __ 0 1 0 ___ 0

Mikehobbyst @*** ____100___66___52 ____218 __ 1 0 0 ___ 0
OrangeburgWx @***___ 36___76__ 96 ____ 208 __ 0 0 1 ___ 0

wintersgrasp @***_____28___80___82____ 190

swflow @*** _________ 61___90___40 ____191___0 1 0 ___ 0
Absolute Humidity @***_ 70___26___66____162

TropicalAnalystwx13 @***54 __00___92____146

IntenseBlizzard2014 @***50__92___00 ____ 142

CSheridan12 @***_____ 00___84___00_____ 84 __ 0 1 0 ___ 0
weatherdude @***_____12___08___30_____ 50

chaser25973 @***_____ 00___24___00_____ 24

__________________________________________________________

 

* one month missed

@ seven months missed

 

NOTE that the four seasons awards for the western contest are embedded in the table. The order of finish is fairly similar to the scoring although SD (who won the autumn section) would be next in line after Consensus. There are a few other minor variations in that order of finish, see the totals above in the table, and congrats to Isotherm who edged out Midlo Snow Maker for this award. Meanwhile in the "all nine total" race there is but one point separating leader Midlo Snow Maker from your host. The rankings for these appear in the table at the end of each row. Tenman Johnson and Uncle W are not shown since they don't participate in all nine.

[Roger Smith]

Extreme Forecast Table

 

 

The table has been copied from its previous (October) location and updated for November. These additions are subject to revision but most of them are set as to result, if not the exact numbers.

 

An extreme forecast is defined as one of these two situations:

 

(.A.) the anomaly was greater than or equal to any forecast (in the same sign direction in all cases) or

(.B.) where there was one forecast greater, and if so, whether that one was closest or not.

 

... Names are somewhat abbreviated, hope you can recognize the culprits. Late penalties could influence results of actual high score as opposed to closest forecast, but after revision of the larger penalties March to May, that was no longer the case.

 

MONTH ______ STATION ______ ANOMALY _____ EXTREME FORECAST same sign ___ actual closest forecast__ type

 

Nov ___________ DCA _________ -1.6 __________ --1.5 Tenman and Roger ________ <-- these ______ A

Nov ___________ NYC _________ -2.4 __________ --1.9 Midlo and Orangeburgwx ___ <-- these  ______A

Nov ___________ BOS _________ -2.2 __________ --2.2 Roger __________________ <-- this ________ A

Nov ___________ ORD _________ -6.7 __________ -4.5 Roger ___________________ <-- this ________A

Nov ___________ ATL __________ -5.0 __________ -2.0 Roger ___________________ <-- this ________A

Nov ___________ IAH __________ -4.9 __________ -2.0 Roger ___________________ <-- this ________A

Nov ___________ DEN _________ -2.1 __________ -3.5 Roger __________________ -1.7 RodneyS ____ B

Nov ___________ PHX _________ +2.0 _________ +2.2 Wxallannj _______________ +2.0 Damage____ B

Oct ____________DCA _________ +3.4 _________ +3.1 chaser25973 _____________ <-- this ________A

Oct ____________NYC _________ +2.7 _________ +2.5 stebo ___________________ <-- this ________A

Oct ____________BOS _________ +2.4 _________ +2.0 stebo ___________________ <-- this ________A

Oct ____________ATL __________ +3.1 _________ +2.1 Tom ___________________ <-- this ________A

Oct ____________DEN _________ +4.3 __________ +1.8 Midlo __________________ <-- this ________A

Oct ____________PHX _________ +3.3 __________ +2.0 SD _____________________ <-- this _______A

Oct ____________SEA __________+5.2 __________ +2.5 Mallow __________________<-- this ________A

Sep ____________ATL _________ +2.3 __________ +2.2 goobagooba _____________ <-- this ________A

Sep ___________ DEN _________ +1.3 __________ +1.3 blazess556 _____________ <-- this ________ A

Sep ___________ SEA __________ +3.5 __________ +1.8 donsutherland.1 _________ <-- this ________A

Aug ___________ ORD _________ +1.3 ___________ +1.1 wxallannj ______________ <-- this _______ A

Aug ___________ PHX _________ --2.0 ___________ -1.5 RodneyS ________________ <-- this _______ A

Aug ___________ SEA _________ +3.0 ___________ +3.8 Roger __________________<-- this ________B

July ___________ DCA _________ --0.4 ___________ --0.5 Tenman ________________ <-- this ________B

July ___________ NYC _________ --0.4 ___________ --0.5 Tenman ________________ <-- this ________B

July ___________ ORD _________ --3.6 ___________ -2.5 RodneyS ________________ <-- this ________A

July ___________ ATL __________ --2.3 __________ --0.6 Hudson _________________ <-- this ________A

July ___________ SEA __________ +3.5 __________ +2.7 RodneyS ________________ <-- this ________A

June __________ ORD __________ +2.0 __________ +1.6 Roger __________________ <-- this ________A

May ___________ DCA __________ +2.5 __________ +2.1 metallic_________________ <-- this ________A

May ___________ NYC __________ +1.6 __________ +1.4 blazes __________________ <--this ________A

May ___________ ORD __________+1.3 __________ +2.5 Roger __________________ Midlo (+0.5) ____B

May ___________ IAH __________ --2.8 __________ --2.1 ksammut _______________ <-- this ________ A

May ___________ SEA __________ --3.1 __________ --2.7 Damage ________________<-- this ________ A

Mar ___________ DCA __________ --3.9 __________ --4.0 Tenman ________________ <-- this ________B

Mar ___________ NYC __________ --4.8 __________ --4.2 ksammut _______________ <-- this ________A

Mar ___________ BOS __________ --4.8 __________ --5.2 ksammut _______________ <-- this ________B

Mar ___________ ATL __________ --1.8 __________ --4.0 Tenman ________________ --1.7 OHwx _____B

Mar ___________ IAH __________ --3.9 __________ --4.0 Tenman ________________<--this _________B

Mar ___________ PHX __________ --3.8 _________ --3.7 swflow __________________ <-- this _______ A

Mar ___________ SEA __________ --2.0 _________ --4.8 swflow __________________ --2.0 cpick79 ___ B

Feb ___________ NYC __________ --3.7 _________ --2.2 Midlo ___________________ <-- this ________A

Feb ___________ BOS __________ --2.7 _________ --2.1 gooba^2 _______________ <-- this ________ A

Feb ___________ ORD _________ --10.4 _________ --5.0 gooba^2 _______________ <--this _________A

Feb ___________ IAH ___________ --1.7 _________ --2.8 midlo __________________ --1.6 uncleW ____B

Feb ___________ DEN ___________ --4.3 _________ --3.4 Mallow ________________ <-- this ________ A

Feb ___________ PHX ___________ +4.7 _________ +4.0 csheridan ______________ <--this _________A

Jan ___________ DCA ___________ --3.8 _________ --3.9 metallic _______________ --3.8 Roger _____ B

Jan ___________ NYC ___________ --4.0 _________ --4.1 metallic _______________ --4.0 Roger _____ B

Jan ___________ ORD ___________ --8.2 _________ --8.6 Roger ________________ <-- this _________B

Jan ___________ ATL ___________ --6.3 _________ --5.2 Roger _________________ <-- this ________ A

Jan ___________ IAH ___________ --3.6 _________ --3.2 Roger _________________ <-- this _________A

Jan ___________ PHX ___________ +3.5 _________ +3.0 gooba^2 _______________ <--this ________ A

Jan ___________ SEA ___________ +2.3 _________ +2.4 Roger _____________ tied with Tom (+2.2) _ B

 

Two cases where second most extreme forecast of only two cases was closest:

 

May __________ PHX ___________ +2.4 _________ +2.6 Mallow ______________ +2.5 SD _______ B-2

Mar __________ ORD ___________ --6.2 _________ --7.2 swflow ____________ --6.4 Roger ______ B-2

 

Summing up, 54 cases in all (out of 99 in the first ten months). 36 were of "A" type which include two exact matches and 16 plus the additional 2 were of "B" type. Of those, the most extreme forecast won the month in 47 of 54 cases (all of the As and 11/18 of the Bs) and there was one tie among the winning B cases, and two in November among the A cases. Otherwise six went to the second most extreme forecast which was seldom far from the actual with one exception (see ORD for May). In most cases, a "B loss" is still one of the higher scores for that month so the term "loss" is relative.

 

This seems quite anomalous compared to previous years when these results might happen once or twice a season.

 

Table leaders for these "extreme forecasts" (the two B-2 cases are counted as a B win plus a B loss, no B loss high score) ... the forecaster record counts all types of wins vs the one type of loss (which basically amounts to going too extreme against the entire field). Note that "A" wins are automatic, forecaster not as extreme as actual anomaly.

 

* shared a win

 

FORECASTER _________ "A" (win) ___ "B" (win) ___ "B" (loss) ____ high score vs "B" loss, counts as win

 

Roger Smith (14-2)**____ 8 ____________ 4 _________ 1 __________ 2

MidloSnowMaker (5-0)* __4 ____________ 0 _________ 0 __________ 1

Tenman Johnson (5-1)* __1 ____________4 _________ 1

goobagooba (4-0) ______ 4 ____________ 0 _________ 0

RodneyS (4-0) _________ 3 ____________ 0 _________ 0 __________ 1

ksammut (3-0) _________2 ____________ 1 _________ 0

blazess556 (2-0) _______ 2 ____________ 0 _________ 0

Tom (2-0)*____________ 1 ____________ 0 _________ 0 __________ 1

SD (2-0) ______________ 1 ____________ 0 _________ 0 __________ 1

stebo (2-0) ____________ 2 ____________ 0 _________ 0

Damage in Tolland (2-0) _ 1 ____________ 0 _________ 0 __________ 1

Mallow (2-1) ___________ 2 ____________ 0 _________ 1

donsutherland.1 (1-0)____ 1 ____________ 0 _________ 0

hudsonvalley21 (1-0) ____1 ____________ 0 _________ 0

OrangeburgWx (1-0)* ___ 1 ____________ 0 _________ 0

OHweather (1-0) _______ 0 ____________ 0 _________ 0 __________ 1

UncleW (1-0) __________ 0 ____________ 0 _________ 0 __________ 1

cpick79 (1-0 ) __________0 ____________ 0 _________ 0 __________ 1

csheridan12 (1-0) ______ 1 ____________ 0 _________ 0

chaser25973 (1-0) ______1 ____________ 0 _________ 0

wxallannj (1-1) _________1 ____________ 0 _________ 1

swflow (1-2) ___________1 ____________ 0 _________ 2

metalicwx366 (1-2) _____ 1 ____________ 0 _________ 2