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November 2014 temperature forecast contest


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Check the tables posted in the October thread as we narrow down the scores, quite a few have made a move on the leaders and it's looking like a very interesting month, so make a note if you're going to be busy on the weekend, the usual penalties will apply, post before you get into the party mode ...

 

It's the usual nine stations, and a bonus just for fun (same as last winter) ...

 

temp anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 for

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ________ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

and for a winter-season bonus, add another line (set):

 

first date measurable snow 0.1" or greater NOV 1 to contest cutoff date APR 15 2015

If ORD or BOS (or anywhere else) receive snow before NOV 1, contest ignores that and looks for first date in the contest period ... one free edit per contestant to 21z NOV 1 then I make it so.

 

 

 

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DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ________ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

1.0       0.7        0.3            -1.0     1.5        1.0                   0.5      1.0        -1.0

 

12/24  12/8     11/18        11/11   1/13     1/27                11/7     2/9       12/4

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DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA


+0.5 ____+0.9 ___+0.8 __ -0.8 ___-0.7  ____-0.3 _______+3.3  ___+0.7 ____+2.4


12/22____12/8___11/21__11/19___1/7______N/A_______11/15____N/A_____12/28


 


EDIT: Slightly changed the Denver 1st snow day.


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Note re snowfall: Anything at ORD today is not counted in contest, predict next date (it is snowing there now).

 

Will edit in my forecasts later. Deadline is 06z, then you have to 21z Saturday to edit your snowfall dates only. Temps are noted between 06z and 07z for table. Late penalties as usual, 1% per 2h after 06z to 18z on 2nd then 1% per hour etc (whatever was stated, nobody is ever that late so I don't remember). :)

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DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____     ORD __ ATL __ IAH ________     DEN __ PHX __   SEA

 

 

 

-1.0      -0.6       0.2            -0.7     0.0        0.1                  -1.7      -2.0        -1.0

 

12/03  12/12    12/06        11/29   1/20     None                11/12     None       11/19

 
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DCA: +1.6     NYC: +1.2     BOS: +0.6    ORD: -1.1   ATL: +1.2   IAH:+1.0    DEN:+1.1   PHX: -0.4  SEA: +0

 

DCA: Dec. 21st   NYC: Dec. 7th    BOS: Nov.16th   ORD: Nov. 10th   ATL: Dec.17th    IAH: Dec. 20th   DEN: Nov. 17th   PHX:        SEA: Dec. 25th

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DCA       NYC       BOS      ORD        ATL       IAH          DEN         PHX       SEA

 

+1.8      +1.4       +0.8     -0.7       +1.0       +1.5       +1.0       +2.0       +2.2

 

12/8     12/1       11/27       11/16     12/30      1/19        11/12       na         1/19

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November 2014 forecasts

 

 

FORECASTER ___________________ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

Damage in Tolland _____________ +2.8__ +1.3 __ +0.5 __ +1.2__ +2.8 __ +1.9 __ +0.9__ +2.0 ___ 0.0

wxallannj _____________________+2.2__ +2.1 __ +1.7 __ +1.5__ +2.1 __ +2.3 __ +1.6__ +2.2 __ +1.8

H2OTown_WX _________________+2.1__ +1.4 __ +1.9 __ +0.4__ +2.0 __ --0.5 __ --0.6__ +1.7 __ --1.1

blazess556_____ (-3%) _________+1.9__ +1.7 __ +1.6 __ +2.0 __ +1.5 __ +0.7 __ +1.4__ +0.7 __ +1.0
bkviking _______ (-2%) _________+1.8__ +1.8 __ +1.4 __ +0.7__ +2.2 __ +0.9 __ --0.7__ --1.4 __ --1.4

donsutherland.1 _______________ +1.8__ +1.6 __ +1.5 __ +2.0__ +1.3 __ +0.7 __ +1.2__ +0.7 __ +1.0

wxdude64 ______ (-2%) ________ +1.8__ +1.4 __ +0.8 __ --0.7__ +1.0 __ +1.5 __ +1.0__ +2.0 __ +2.2

stebo ________________________ +1.8__ +1.3 __ +0.8 __ --0.5__ +2.1 __ +0.7 __ --0.3__ --1.1 __ --1.5

Absolute Humidity ______________+1.7__ +0.9 __ +1.1 __ --0.6__ +1.7 __ +1.0 __ --0.6__ --1.7 __ --1.1

SACRUS ______________________ +1.6__ +1.2 __ +0.6 __ --1.1__ +1.2 __ +1.0 __ +1.1__ --0.4 ___ 0.0

cpick79 _______________________+1.5__ +1.0 __ +0.7 __ +1.4__ +1.0 __ +1.2 __ +0.4__ --1.0 __ --1.3

hudsonvalley21 ________________ +1.3__ +1.1 __ +0.7 __ +1.2__ +0.9 __ --0.2 __ +0.5__ +0.8 __ +1.8

Isotherm _____________________ +1.0__ +1.3 __ +1.5 __ --0.8__ +0.6 __ --0.4 __ +1.5__ +1.1 __ +2.0

UncleW _______________________+1.0__ +1.0 __ +1.3 __ +0.5__ +1.0 __ +0.5

 

Consensus ____________________ +1.0__ +0.9 __ +0.7 __ --0.6__ +0.9 __ +0.9 __ +0.5__ +0.8 __ +1.0

 

SD __________________________ +1.0__ +0.7 __ +0.3 __ --1.0__ +1.5 __ +1.0 __ +0.5__ +1.0 __ --1.0

Tom _________________________ +0.9__ +0.8 __ +0.1 __ --0.2__ +0.8 __ +1.2 __ +2.1__ +1.1 __ +1.2

metallicwx366 ___ (-4%) ________ +0.9__ +0.7 __ +0.5 __ --1.1__ +0.2 __ +1.0 __ --1.1__ +1.4 __ +1.0

Orangeburgwx _________________+0.7__ --1.9 __ --1.6 __ +0.1__ --1.2 __ +0.6 __ +1.1__ +0.8 __ +0.8

Mallow _______________________ +0.5__ +0.9 __ +0.8 __ --0.8__ --0.7 __ --0.3 __ +3.3__ +0.7 __ +2.4

goobagooba ___________________+0.4__ +0.6 __ +0.8 __ +0.1__ --0.4 __ --0.4 __ +0.8__ +1.1 __ +1.0

 

Normal _______________________ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ____ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ____ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 0.0

 

OHweather ______ (-8%) ________ --0.3__ --0.9 __ --1.7 __ --0.8__ --0.4 __ +0.3 __ +0.5__ +1.0 __ +0.8

ksammut _____________________  --0.4__ --0.6 __ --0.8 __ --0.9__ +0.9 __ --0.4 __ --0.8__ --0.9 __ --0.3

Winters Grasp __________________--0.5__ --0.5 __ --1.0 __ --1.5__ +0.5 __ +1.0 __ +1.5__ +1.0 __ +1.5

MidloSnowMaker ________________--0.9__ --1.9 __ --2.0 __ --1.9__ --1.5 __ +0.9 __ +1.9__ +1.5 __ +2.0

RodneyS ______________________ --1.0__ --0.6 __ +0.2 __ --0.7___ 0.0 __ +0.1 __ --1.7__ --2.0 __ --1.0

Tenman Johnson _______________ --1.5__ --1.5 __ --1.5 __ --1.5__ --1.5 __ --1.5

Roger Smith ___________________ --1.5__ --1.8 __ --2.2 __ --4.5__ --2.0 __ --2.0 __ --3.5__ --0.8 __ +3.0

______________________________________________________________

 

 

27 forecasts so far, including the 23 current regular entrants, hope those small late penalties won't be too big a burden ... at this point, consensus values are 14th ranked (first six) and 13th ranked for western three.

 

A table of entries for the snowfall contest will follow in a day or two unless I get myself going again tonight, if you want to enter snowfall dates on Sunday, just edit some forecasts in, and for the temps, check your entries, I do that around the 4th to make sure my excel entries are accurate.

 

 

NOV 6 -- table entries verified, and transferred to excel file

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