Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,587
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Historic Lake Effect Snowstorm


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Northern edge has made it back up to me.  

 

BuffaloWeather - awesome video!

 

Congrats awesome!

NYZ010>012-085-180830-ERIE NY-GENESEE NY-WYOMING NY-230 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014...INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA...* AT 221 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN  INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES  OF 4 INCHES PER HOUR OR MORE...AND VISIBILITY OF A QUARTER OF A  MILE OR LESS. THIS 10 TO 15 MILE WIDE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WAS  CONTINUING TO NUDGE A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH...WITH THE NORTHERN  EDGE EXTENDING FROM DOWNTOWN BUFFALO AND THE BUFFALO AIRPORT TO  BATAVIA AND THE SOUTHERN EDGE EXTENDING FROM ORCHARD PARK TO  ATTICA.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest AFD 

 

 

...MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD TODAY WITH A
TIGHT NORTHERN GRADIENT AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

REGIONAL RADARS AND GROUND TRUTH REPORTS THIS MORNING TELL THE STORY
OF THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT THAT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD THIS MORNING.

OFF LAKE ERIE...RADARS DISPLAY A STRONG BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE LONG FETCH OF LAKE ERIE...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS DRIVING
THIS BAND INLAND OVER AREAS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
BUFFALO TO NORTHERN GENESEE AND FAR SW MONROE COUNTY. BASED ON
REPORTS THIS SNOWBAND IS EXHIBITING SNOWFALL RATES OF 4 INCHES PER
HOUR. THERE WERE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THOUGH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...THE RISE IN EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS ALONG WITH SOME SUGGESTION FROM MESO SCALE MODEL
REFLECTIVITY...WE AGAIN SHOULD SEE LIGHTNING AND HEAR SOME RUMBLES
OF THUNDER WITHIN THE SNOWBAND TODAY.

A 240 FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP THIS BAND OF SNOW NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE MORNING HORUS...WITH JUST SOME MINOR (FEW MILES) OF
WIGGLES. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO FALL JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF ROUTE 33 THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...RADARS DISPLAY A BAND OF SNOW NEAR THE JEFFERSON
AND OSWEGO COUNTY LINE...AND INLAND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TUG HILL
AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY REGION. A WESTERLY FLOW PRESENTLY SHOULD
BACK TO AROUND A 250 TO 240 FLOW...AND LIKE OFF LAKE ERIE THE
PRESENT BAND OF SNOW SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WATERTOWN
VICINITY...AND INLAND TOWARDS FORT DRUM AND PHILADELPHIA. AS THE
BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE TODAY...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD
INCREASE TOWARDS THE 4 INCHES PER HOUR OR SO RATE. LAKE EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS WILL RISE TOWARDS 20K FEET BY THIS EVENING AND SOME RUMBLES
OF THUNDER WITHIN THE SNOW BAND WILL BE LIKELY.

A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL BRING THE AXIS OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION
TODAY. THIS WILL IN EFFECT CAUSE OUR LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW TO
BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH THE BANDS OF SNOW OFF BOTH LAKES DROPPING
SOUTHWARD (FIRST LAKE ERIE AND SEVERAL HOURS LATER ON LAKE ONTARIO)
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
FALL OFF LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT AND WIND CONVERGENCE DIMINISHES
SOME EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES TO ALSO DIMINISH.

OUTSIDE OF THESE LAKE BANDS THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TODAY. THOUGH SUNSHINE FOR PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...IT WILL REMAIN
VERY COLD TODAY AS BRISK WINDS CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RIVAL RECORD
LOW MAXES TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. THESE
RECORD LOW MAXES ARE BUFFALO...23/1880...ROCHESTER 26/1959...AND
WATERTOWN 30/1959. TONIGHT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS...TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER NEAR THE STATE BORDER. NEAR THE LAKE SHORES AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO A FEW LOWER 20 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE FOUND. THESE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE RECORD LOW
VALUES.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OFF BOTH LAKE ERIE AND
LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING NORTHWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS. WILL LIKELY B LOOKING
AT SEVERAL MORE INCHES TO TACK ONTO TO WHAT SHOULD BE SOME ALREADY
IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. BY AFTERNOON ALL OF THE LAKE EFFECT
WILL BE GONE...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES
TURNS TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST WITH SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR DEVELOPING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL GET UNDERWAY. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE SIMILAR TO THE ONGOING
EVENT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEARING -16C WILL AGAIN CREATE EXTREME
OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHT ABOVE 15K FEET. CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EVENT FOR FAVORED WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW AREAS IS GROWING. WATCH
HEADLINES WILL REMAIN INTACT AS NOT TO OVERLAP THIS ONGOING EVENT.

OFF LAKE ERIE...
LAKE BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST FLOW VEERS. INITIALLY FORMING ACROSS GRAND ISLAND AND
NIAGARA COUNTY...THE BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE BUFFALO METRO AREA TO
POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTHEAST AS WESTERN MONROE COUNTY WITHIN THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE BAND WILL THEN DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE REACHING THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER LATER BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE
BAND TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON ITS
WAY MOVING SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND WYOMING
COUNTY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH WITH THIS
SECOND EVENT...BUT IT STILL LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH FOR WELL OVER A FOOT
IN THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
EXPECT A BAND TO DEVELOP INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH PUSHING
THROUGH THE WATERTOWN AREA BEFORE REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS OSWEGO COUNTY BY
FRIDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE AT ITS MOST INTENSE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
IT CROSSES THE TUG HILL REGION. INSTABILITY IS EVEN A LITTLE
STRONGER OVER LAKE ONTARIO...SO IF THE BAND REMAINS IN ONE PLACE
LONG ENOUGH AMOUNTS OF OVER TWO FEET ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

THIS EVENT WILL BE WINDY AS WELL WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW...ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS WINDY AS THE
FIRST EVENT. EVEN SO...IT WILL STILL HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON TRAVEL
ACROSS THE REGION.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dude this event is gonna make Dec 2010 seem like peanuts.... I expect to see someone near 60" when all is said and done. One of the most amazing lake effect storms for WNY in history.

 

I just mentioned that to a friend who lives in West Seneca. Four feet is almost a given for someone, and five feet isn't out of the question depending on how stationary that band stays. There doesn't seem to be much movement on upstream radars (CLE). Unreal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites


...INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING

THE MORNING COMMUTE...

* AT 653 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED

TO INDICATE AN INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF

PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 4 INCHES PER HOUR OR MORE...AND

VISIBILITY OF A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS. THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW

BAND CONTINUED TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS. THERE

WILL BE A VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT TO THE BAND THROUGH THE

MORNING.

Link to comment
Share on other sites


..LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST

WEDNESDAY...

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY

NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDING

THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SNOW BAND FROM

ROUGHLY A LINE FROM BUFFALO TO THE BUFFALO AIRPORT TO BATAVIA.

* TIMING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY

WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE

MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND. SNOW ACCUMULATING 3 TO 4 FEET

IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS

POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH

PRODUCING LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH

SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL

RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT OR NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL AT TIMES

WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND. EXPECT ROAD

CLOSURES OR SNOW COVERED ROADS THAT ARE NEARLY IMPASSABLE

WITHIN THE SNOW BAND. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL BE PREPARED FOR

SEVERE WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND

DEEP SNOW COVER ON ROADS. THIS INCLUDES THE NEW YORK STATE

THRUWAY FROM SILVER CREEK TO BATAVIA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...