Buffalo Bumble Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Northern edge has made it back up to me. BuffaloWeather - awesome video! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 Northern edge has made it back up to me. BuffaloWeather - awesome video! Congrats awesome! NYZ010>012-085-180830-ERIE NY-GENESEE NY-WYOMING NY-230 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014...INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA...* AT 221 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 4 INCHES PER HOUR OR MORE...AND VISIBILITY OF A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS. THIS 10 TO 15 MILE WIDE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WAS CONTINUING TO NUDGE A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE EXTENDING FROM DOWNTOWN BUFFALO AND THE BUFFALO AIRPORT TO BATAVIA AND THE SOUTHERN EDGE EXTENDING FROM ORCHARD PARK TO ATTICA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I'll be heading out to the city, we received 4" of new snow since my last posting at the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Lake Ontario starting to fire up: http://www.localsyr.com/livedoppler9 Rt. 177 between Adams and Lowville on the northern Tug would be a fun drive right now... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 I'll be heading out to the city, we received 4" of new snow since my last posting at the airport. Awesome that is where my training is this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Great video, looks like the band axis will remain just to your north before meandering back south again in a few hours. I'm on my phone but it says the video has been removed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 I'm on my phone but it says the video has been removed? I uploaded it on the wrong youtube account by accident. It should work now. 18 inches so far here. Light snow currently. Band has drifted north. Going to try to get a few hours of sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 Just got woken up by thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Pretty sharp cutoff once you get past eggert on 33. Maybe additional 1-2" on top of the 2" we received earlier in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Just got woken up by thunder. Enjoy it looks like that band will slightly shift southward and remain stationary for the next couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Check out that RAP sounding for KART!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Latest AFD ...MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD TODAY WITH ATIGHT NORTHERN GRADIENT AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAYEVENING...REGIONAL RADARS AND GROUND TRUTH REPORTS THIS MORNING TELL THE STORYOF THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT THAT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD THIS MORNING.OFF LAKE ERIE...RADARS DISPLAY A STRONG BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWALONG THE LONG FETCH OF LAKE ERIE...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS DRIVINGTHIS BAND INLAND OVER AREAS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROMBUFFALO TO NORTHERN GENESEE AND FAR SW MONROE COUNTY. BASED ONREPORTS THIS SNOWBAND IS EXHIBITING SNOWFALL RATES OF 4 INCHES PERHOUR. THERE WERE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER EARLY THIS EVENING...ANDTHOUGH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...THE RISE IN EQUILIBRIUMLEVELS ALONG WITH SOME SUGGESTION FROM MESO SCALE MODELREFLECTIVITY...WE AGAIN SHOULD SEE LIGHTNING AND HEAR SOME RUMBLESOF THUNDER WITHIN THE SNOWBAND TODAY.A 240 FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP THIS BAND OF SNOW NEARLY STATIONARYTHROUGH THE MORNING HORUS...WITH JUST SOME MINOR (FEW MILES) OFWIGGLES. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO FALL JUST TO THESOUTH OF ROUTE 33 THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.OFF LAKE ONTARIO...RADARS DISPLAY A BAND OF SNOW NEAR THE JEFFERSONAND OSWEGO COUNTY LINE...AND INLAND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TUG HILLAND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY REGION. A WESTERLY FLOW PRESENTLY SHOULDBACK TO AROUND A 250 TO 240 FLOW...AND LIKE OFF LAKE ERIE THEPRESENT BAND OF SNOW SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WATERTOWNVICINITY...AND INLAND TOWARDS FORT DRUM AND PHILADELPHIA. AS THEBAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE TODAY...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULDINCREASE TOWARDS THE 4 INCHES PER HOUR OR SO RATE. LAKE EQUILIBRIUMLEVELS WILL RISE TOWARDS 20K FEET BY THIS EVENING AND SOME RUMBLESOF THUNDER WITHIN THE SNOW BAND WILL BE LIKELY.A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGHWILL BRING THE AXIS OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGIONTODAY. THIS WILL IN EFFECT CAUSE OUR LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW TOBECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH THE BANDS OF SNOW OFF BOTH LAKES DROPPINGSOUTHWARD (FIRST LAKE ERIE AND SEVERAL HOURS LATER ON LAKE ONTARIO)THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELSFALL OFF LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT AND WIND CONVERGENCE DIMINISHESSOME EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES TO ALSO DIMINISH.OUTSIDE OF THESE LAKE BANDS THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDSTODAY. THOUGH SUNSHINE FOR PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...IT WILL REMAINVERY COLD TODAY AS BRISK WINDS CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLEDIGITS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RIVAL RECORDLOW MAXES TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. THESERECORD LOW MAXES ARE BUFFALO...23/1880...ROCHESTER 26/1959...ANDWATERTOWN 30/1959. TONIGHT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITHOVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS...TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERNTIER NEAR THE STATE BORDER. NEAR THE LAKE SHORES AND EAST OF LAKEONTARIO A FEW LOWER 20 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE FOUND. THESEOVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE RECORD LOWVALUES.-- End Changed Discussion -- &&.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion -- ...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY LATEWEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OFF BOTH LAKE ERIE ANDLAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OFLIFTING NORTHWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS. WILL LIKELY B LOOKINGAT SEVERAL MORE INCHES TO TACK ONTO TO WHAT SHOULD BE SOME ALREADYIMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. BY AFTERNOON ALL OF THE LAKE EFFECTWILL BE GONE...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMESTURNS TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST WITH SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR DEVELOPING WITH THEPASSAGE OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTIONWILL GET UNDERWAY. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE SIMILAR TO THE ONGOINGEVENT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEARING -16C WILL AGAIN CREATE EXTREMEOVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG ANDEQUILIBRIUM HEIGHT ABOVE 15K FEET. CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER SIGNIFICANTLAKE EVENT FOR FAVORED WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW AREAS IS GROWING. WATCHHEADLINES WILL REMAIN INTACT AS NOT TO OVERLAP THIS ONGOING EVENT.OFF LAKE ERIE...LAKE BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHSOUTHWEST FLOW VEERS. INITIALLY FORMING ACROSS GRAND ISLAND ANDNIAGARA COUNTY...THE BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE BUFFALO METRO AREA TOPOSSIBLY AS FAR NORTHEAST AS WESTERN MONROE COUNTY WITHIN THESTRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE BAND WILL THEN DRIFTSLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE REACHING THE WESTERNSOUTHERN TIER LATER BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT THEBAND TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON ITSWAY MOVING SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND WYOMINGCOUNTY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH WITH THISSECOND EVENT...BUT IT STILL LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH FOR WELL OVER A FOOTIN THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND.OFF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT A BAND TO DEVELOP INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATEWEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH PUSHINGTHROUGH THE WATERTOWN AREA BEFORE REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BYTHURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS OSWEGO COUNTY BYFRIDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE AT ITS MOST INTENSE THURSDAY NIGHT ASIT CROSSES THE TUG HILL REGION. INSTABILITY IS EVEN A LITTLESTRONGER OVER LAKE ONTARIO...SO IF THE BAND REMAINS IN ONE PLACELONG ENOUGH AMOUNTS OF OVER TWO FEET ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.THIS EVENT WILL BE WINDY AS WELL WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING ANDDRIFTING SNOW...ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS WINDY AS THEFIRST EVENT. EVEN SO...IT WILL STILL HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON TRAVELACROSS THE REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 IMO i think the final total snowfall amounts should be similar to the Dec'10 LES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Elma ny is apparently reporting 32 inches in the last 10 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Dude this event is gonna make Dec 2010 seem like peanuts.... I expect to see someone near 60" when all is said and done. One of the most amazing lake effect storms for WNY in history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Elma ny is apparently reporting 32 inches in the last 10 hours. source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 what's up guys. getting blasted, obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Dude this event is gonna make Dec 2010 seem like peanuts.... I expect to see someone near 60" when all is said and done. One of the most amazing lake effect storms for WNY in history. I just mentioned that to a friend who lives in West Seneca. Four feet is almost a given for someone, and five feet isn't out of the question depending on how stationary that band stays. There doesn't seem to be much movement on upstream radars (CLE). Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 source? http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Tom Nizol just posted a picture on The Weather Channel from his daughter who lives in Elma and she has a 40 inch ruler and it shows a solid 36 inches with even higher drifts in the background. I think Elma hits 60" . Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 source? From COCORAHS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Yeah I don't have a yard stick but we are approaching 3 ft in lackawanna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 Dude this event is gonna make Dec 2010 seem like peanuts.... I expect to see someone near 60" when all is said and done. One of the most amazing lake effect storms for WNY in history. 60..psh..Lets make a run towards 82. This is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 Yeah I don't have a yard stick but we are approaching 3 ft in lackawanna. You guys have been getting destroyed all night. Welcome back OSU, we missed ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 IMO i think the final total snowfall amounts should be similar to the Dec'10 LES event. We are going to BLOW that event away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 ...INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE... * AT 653 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE AN INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 4 INCHES PER HOUR OR MORE...AND VISIBILITY OF A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS. THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CONTINUED TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS. THERE WILL BE A VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT TO THE BAND THROUGH THE MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 ..LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * LOCATIONS...ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDING THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SNOW BAND FROM ROUGHLY A LINE FROM BUFFALO TO THE BUFFALO AIRPORT TO BATAVIA. * TIMING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND. SNOW ACCUMULATING 3 TO 4 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH PRODUCING LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT OR NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL AT TIMES WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND. EXPECT ROAD CLOSURES OR SNOW COVERED ROADS THAT ARE NEARLY IMPASSABLE WITHIN THE SNOW BAND. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND DEEP SNOW COVER ON ROADS. THIS INCLUDES THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY FROM SILVER CREEK TO BATAVIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Wow, great pictures BuffaloWeather! Pretty cool that you can actually see the top of the band from the State College, PA radar, 141 miles away. That translates to an echo top of around 5.8 km, above the 500 mb level! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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