BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Nope. Why don't mets realize that the bands always go farther north than modeled in beginning season snows and factor it into their forecast? SSW winds showing up on radar. Buffalo Bumble its coming towards you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Nope btw check out the orientation of that band forming over at the western end of the lake. I saw. I told you it was going to happen. Don Pauls snowfall forecast was laughable. Had 2 inches at Kbuf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 This is why... THE COLDEST AIR DIVING TO OUR SOUTHWESTACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY…AS WELL AS IN SHOWING THERMALLY-ENHANCEDLOW LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DUE TO THE COMBINED /I.E. LAKE AGGREGATE/ DIABATIC WARMING EFFECTS OF THELAKES. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR A MORENORTHERLY POSITION TO THE LAKE BANDS THAN OFFERED BY SOME OF THEGUIDANCE…WHICH TYPICALLY HAS A SOUTHERLY BIAS THIS EARLY IN THESEASON DUE TO THE LATTER PROCESS. PUTTING ALL THIS TOGETHER…EXPECT THE DOMINANT FLOW DURING THEMONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD TO BE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY IN NATUREOR ALONG THE LINES OF THE MORE BACKED FLOW SEEN IN THE 12Z NAM ANDECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 That is also a thick band of LES. Erie county is going to get destroyed. Looks like 25 miles + in thickness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=BUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crownweather Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I saw. I told you it was going to happen. Don Pauls snowfall forecast was laughable. Had 2 inches at Kbuf. Woah and I thought I went conservative with 10 inches for KBUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Latest warning/snow map for posterity sake. ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM ESTWEDNESDAY......LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHTTHROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGHLATE THURSDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS...ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDING THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. * TIMING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND. SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 2 TO 3 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH PRODUCING LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.* VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.* IMPACTS...INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT OR NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL AT TIMES WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND. SOME ROADS MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPASSABLE. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND DEEP SNOW COVER ON ROADS. THIS INCLUDES THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY FROM SILVER CREEK TO BATAVIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Woah and I thought I went conservative with 10 inches for KBUF. His map had an absolutely insane cutoff. Will try to find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRLady Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I am up in the Watertown area,just waiting for things to start.I will let you know when things begin unless I get to tired and have to retire! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 His map had an absolutely insane cutoff. Will try to find it. I'm going to go out on a limb here but i would say based on the latest radar trend that this will make it all the way up to Tonawandas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crownweather Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Just for reference. Latest radar composite (7 pm ET) of Lake Erie from GREarth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 I'm going to go out on a limb here but i would say based on the latest radar trend that this will make it all the way up to Tonawandas. Easily. Hopefully the high winds doesn't prevent one single super band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Already reports of TSSN in Lackawanna!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 Already reports of TSSN in Lackawanna!! Off to the gym and to say hi to the weather channel. Keep me updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Off to the gym and to say hi to the weather channel. Keep me updated. Alright bro be safe!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crownweather Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Per WKBW Twitter feed - 7 PM: Reports of Thundersnow in Eden, Hamburg, West Seneca, and Cheektowaga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Enjoy folks... I'll be waiting and hoping for the next event (already watches issued) to see my next flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Southern Niagara county is about to get clobbered by some intense squalls without any sort of warning. They better pop at least an advisory.... This initial band looks very promising. Already cracking with small spots of 35 dbz... Expect to hear thundersnow reports very soon. -edit- I'm slow...alread reports of tssn a few responses up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 I might be wrong but I think the jackpot is going to be from downtown Buffalo out to Lancaster and up to the airport into Amherst and Clarence as well. This thing looks like it's going way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 Winds beer tomorrow Devin. Check out the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 Veer* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Winds beer tomorrow Devin. Check out the models.ill take a beer! Lol. I know that winds veer tomorrow but as you said thermal troughing always takes place in these early season events and I don't see why this one would be any different. I hope I'm wrong because I want you to be in the bullseye there in the south towns! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crownweather Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Interesting that the most recent HRRR model still shifts band that's over northern Erie/southern Niagara to the south for a while after 9 pm before it forecasts it to shift back to the north late tonight into tomorrow. This was actually just mentioned in the latest NWS discussion...lol. Also, I noticed something in an analysis I just did - If you look at the 850/700/500 millibar flow, it almost seems like we would want to use the 700 millibar flow rather than 850. Reason why is that it seems the bands right now are aligning with the 700 millibar flow. This says to me anyway that the cloud layer is becoming deep enough already that it's taping the winds up as high as 10-15K feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crownweather Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Here are the other two HRRR model maps I wanted to post. They wouldn't all post in one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 That is one healthy band. It already appears to have stopped any northward jog and is locked in on the metro area for the new few hours. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 That is one healthy band. It already appears to have stopped any northward jog and is locked in on the metro area for the new few hours. .that band is starting to look incredibly organized. Someone's going to get destroyed overnight. Really wish I could be there for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 That is one healthy band. It already appears to have stopped any northward jog and is locked in on the metro area for the new few hours. .Latest AFD MINOR UPDATE THIS EVENING TO INITIALLY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO THE BUFFALO METRO AREA FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS IS THE ONSET OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WHICH HAS SET UP SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED. A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA THIS EVENING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS BAND. HOWEVER DOWNSTREAM RADAR OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND FORMING OVER LAKE ERIE. ONCE THIS BAND MATURES AND ORGANIZES BETTER THIS EVENING...THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHTOWNS BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH INTO DOWNTOWN BUFFALO TO THE AIRPORT BY MORNING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 Can someone save some pictures and gifs of that radar while I'm gone?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Very cool out there right now. Snow has been fluctuating between moderate and heavy for the last 30 minutes or so. It just got "darker", snow really picked up, and we had a huge flash of lightning and long rumble of thunder. Almost like a summer thunderstorm - pretty awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Every refresh of the radar is looking more and more incredible. Just wow...already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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