Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Hopefully the flooding won't be too bad come Sunday and Monday. FWIW, Joe Bastardi thinks that much of the rain will be absorbed by the snowpack, which admittedly will be very bad for roofs and infrastructure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 The bands off both lakes right now both exhibit characteristics of "strong wind bands" in that the immediate shorelines are not getting in on the intense part of the bands. Generally Oswego needs light winds to get hit very hard or else the band tends to be weak on the shorelines...I have not looked closely but there must be some strong winds in the 900mb layer because surface winds right now at KFZY/KSYR and KROC are not strong. Yeah our 8-14" snow forecast is concerning to me since we only have 2" on the ground. Another burst is gonna move through shortly but I don't think this band is going to hold on to this part of the county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Yeah our 8-14" snow forecast is concerning to me since we only have 2" on the ground. Another burst is gonna move through shortly but I don't think this band is going to hold on to this part of the county It takes a fairly specific setup for Oswego to get slammed, even to get a solid 8-14 inch event really..and those setups seem to come in bunches over stretches of winters, they can go 5 years with only 1 major event then get 7 or 8 of them in the next 5-7 years...generally a 275-280 flow with lighter winds in somewhat quieter synoptic patterns, a noisy pattern like we have now with a strong vort and multiple shortwaves that keep swinging the flow don't work. It seems the prime setup for them is often as a high approaches from the southwest and the PV is lifting away with a slight anticyclonic flow commencing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 It takes a fairly specific setup for Oswego to get slammed, even to get a solid 8-14 inch event really..and those setups seem to come in bunches over stretches of winters, they can go 5 years with only 1 major event then get 7 or 8 of them in the next 5-7 years...generally a 275-280 flow with lighter winds in somewhat quieter synoptic patterns, a noisy pattern like we have now with a strong vort and multiple shortwaves that keep swinging the flow don't work. It seems the prime setup for them is often as a high approaches from the southwest and the PV is lifting away with a slight anticyclonic flow commencing. We are far from a perfect spot for LES but we're doing ok tonight. Either way this band seems to be orientating more WNW-ENE and as long as it can stall for a few hours I should end up at least approaching 8". Right now we're close to 3" with SN/SN+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 People officially going off the reservation in WNY. This is hillarious: Priceless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Hopefully the flooding won't be too bad come Sunday and Monday. FWIW, Joe Bastardi thinks that much of the rain will be absorbed by the snowpack, which admittedly will be very bad for roofs and infrastructure. I don't think there will be that much rain...the big deal will be the run off. Dewpoints over 50 degrees with temps in the low 60s on Monday with strong southerly winds. Classic snoweating conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Someone that knows a lot about forecasting lake effect shoot me a message. I'm more familiar with synoptic forecasting. I'm under the impression that after the warmup next week that the Buffalo area could receive another historic lake effect event next weekend. I want to book a room a day or two in advance if so and need a hand in determining the possible amounts and best location to stay. So someone familiar with lake effect message me if possible. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 That serene moment when you're outside shoveling staring at 50+ inches in your driveway leaning against your just shoveled out car staring up at the low level clouds and the bright white moon...Thinking to yourself, is this a dream. Priceless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Sorry I'm just posting this for posterity/cherry picking, as this picture should bring out the weenies. Nice 4 foot bullseye at my house. LOL Pretty amazing seeing this as how accurate the GEM nailed this. But what's great about it is Buffalo kinda laughing like "No Way" lol. Congrats. I hope to see something like this. I made the trip to Worcester, MA for the blizzard 2 years ago where 30" fell wiwith 70mph wind gusts but as impressive as that was it was nothing compared to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 Pretty amazing seeing this as how accurate the GEM nailed this. But what's great about it is Buffalo kinda laughing like "No Way" lol. Congrats. I hope to see something like this. I made the trip to Worcester, MA for the blizzard 2 years ago where 30" fell wiwith 70mph wind gusts but as impressive as that was it was nothing compared to this. That's crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 Pretty amazing seeing this as how accurate the GEM nailed this. But what's great about it is Buffalo kinda laughing like "No Way" lol. Congrats. I hope to see something like this. I made the trip to Worcester, MA for the blizzard 2 years ago where 30" fell wiwith 70mph wind gusts but as impressive as that was it was nothing compared to this. Maybe the GEM brings me good luck, so I'll post the latest run for next week. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 People officially going off the reservation in WNY. This is hillarious: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Meanwhile off Lake Ontario... this band is doing some good work. Visibility briefly has gone down to a couple hundred feet at SUNY Oswego, but it looks like the best totals will be further inland with this band which I expected. Hopefully we'll do well with the rest of tonight and the possible second band that may develop tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Found these latest snowfall tallies out of BUF. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTSPOTTER REPORTSNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY1024 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014SNOW TOTALS FROM 9PM WEDNESDAY 11/19/2014 THROUGH 10PM THURSDAY11/20/2014********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTSSNOWFALL OF/INCHES/ MEASUREMENTNEW YORK...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...PERRYSBURG 14.5 918 PM 11/20 COOP OBSERVER...ERIE COUNTY...2 NE BOSTON 37.0 755 PM 11/20 COCORAHSWALES CENTER 37.0 345 PM 11/20 SOCIAL MEDIA1 W HAMBURG 36.5 457 PM 11/20 SOCIAL MEDIAEDEN 36.0 1015 PM 11/20 SOCIAL MEDIAANGOLA 33.0 337 PM 11/20 SOCIAL MEDIAHAMBURG 31.5 452 PM 11/20 NWS EMPLOYEEEAST AURORA 27.0 500 PM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO1 ESE EAST AURORA 24.5 500 PM 11/20 COCORAHSORCHARD PARK 23.0 600 PM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIOALDEN 18.5 500 PM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO2 S LANCASTER 15.0 807 PM 11/20 SOCIAL MEDIA3 WSW ELMA 13.8 608 PM 11/20 COCORAHSLACKAWANNA 13.0 1000 AM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIOCHEEKTOWAGA 12.0 900 AM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO4 NW ALDEN 12.0 429 PM 11/20 NWS EMPLOYEELANCASTER 11.0 500 PM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIOSARDINIA 11.0 947 PM 11/20 FIRE DEPT/RESCUE2 S AKRON 9.0 554 AM 11/20 COCORAHSNY BUFFALO INTL ARPT 8.1 425 PM 11/20 ASOS2 N CHEEKTOWAGA 7.0 1000 AM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIOCLARENCE 6.0 1000 AM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO...JEFFERSON COUNTY...WATERTOWN 9.0 817 PM 11/20 SOCIAL MEDIA...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...LIVONIA 10.0 827 PM 11/20 SOCIAL MEDIA...ORLEANS COUNTY...MEDINA 1.0 800 AM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO...WYOMING COUNTY...COWLESVILLE 27.0 600 PM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIOATTICA 23.0 200 PM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO3 E VARYSBURG 17.8 400 PM 11/20 COCORAHS$CHURCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 SN+ continues here at Oswego... band is slowly shifting south at the moment. It's better than NWOH so I'm not gonna complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Like everyone else who has posted in this thread already, I too want to commend the efforts of BuffaloWeather. Have never seen a more dramatic and awe-inspiring video documentation of a winter weather event! That "thundersnow" video is truly amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Like everyone else who has posted in this thread already, I too want to commend the efforts of BuffaloWeather. Have never seen a more dramatic and awe-inspiring video documentation of a winter weather event! That "thundersnow" video is truly amazing! I would hope I'd be this nuts on everything if I was in Buff's positron. But as you stated that Thundersnow video? I Can NOT, can Not get over that. 3 Solid hits in 2 minutes. Greatest Thundersnow video that humanity has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 I would hope I'd be this nuts on everything if I was in Buff's positron. But as you stated that Thundersnow video? I Can NOT, can Not get over that. 3 Solid hits in 2 minutes. Greatest Thundersnow video that humanity has. I believe that video is going ot be on CNN New Day at 6-8 am tomorrow. CNN has been in contact with me all night. Thanks for the kind words NC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 That serene moment when you're outside shoveling staring at 50+ inches in your driveway leaning against your just shoveled out car staring up at the low level clouds and the bright white moon...Thinking to yourself, is this a dream. Priceless. I live for those moments. Blizzard of 2005 reading my snow board, Blizzard of 2013 watching the last models coming in with the same solution and knowing I Bagged one, shoveling on Feb. 7th, 2003, and the seconds after seeing a lightning bolt in the woods right behind my house on 12/9/05. But YOU Sir, bets enjoy every millisecond. Because what you have trumps Everything put together. 90" with 50" on the ground and a specific scene only 90" of snow in 3 days can create. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I think some areas in and around Buffalo, may still get some bonus snows this morning from the Georgian Bay streamer, crossing W. L. Ontario...settling just east of BUF at this time....see what happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 It sounds like the Emergency services In Erie and surrounding counties are doing a tremendous job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I think some areas in and around Buffalo, may still get some bonus snows this morning from the Georgian Bay streamer, crossing W. L. Ontario...settling just east of BUF at this time....see what happens... Have you looked at next week at all George, seems pretty potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Death toll is up to 12 and at least 30 buildings have collapsed. With the forecast, it could go from bad to worse. http://www.wben.com/Lake-Effect-Ends-Flood-Potential-Up-Next-12-Deaths/20338485 SaturdayRain likely, mainly after 3pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 40. Breezy, with a southwest wind 16 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Saturday NightRain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 40. Breezy, with a southwest wind 16 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. SundayA chance of rain, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 50. South wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Sunday NightRain. Low around 48. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. MondayRain likely, mainly after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday NightShowers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%. TuesdayA chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Have you looked at next week at all George, seems pretty potent. I've peeked at some models....certainly has potential....850's not as cold....lake will be colder....looks like a slightly drier airmass. But a long lead time precludes any discussion of details. Certainly doesn't appear to be an event that would come close to this week's festivities!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Anybody know the highest snow depth ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Anybody know the highest snow depth ? 59" in Elma is the highest I've seen. Seems like they would have about the highest in the event, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 59" in Elma is the highest I've seen. Seems like they would have about the highest in the event, anyway. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 59" in Elma is the highest I've seen. Seems like they would have about the highest in the event, anyway. wasn't there an unofficial report of 85"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 I was reading in this morning's paper that PennDOT and the turnpike commission of Pennsylvania is sending equipment and manpower up to Buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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