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Historic Lake Effect Snowstorm


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I'll be interested to see if this event develops the classic double band that many of the hallmark events from the 90's had.  That double band could bring a little extra to the immediate northtowns, or it could converge together into an even more powerful band once it encounters the East end of the lake and pound the metro and areas just east.  

 

With such ridiculous Equilibrium levels, I am cautiously optimistic that I'll even squeak out 2-5 inches here on the West side of the ROC.  I'm hoping those deep convective clouds can punch well inland.  

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I'll be interested to see if this event develops the classic double band that many of the hallmark events from the 90's had.  That double band could bring a little extra to the immediate northtowns, or it could converge together into an even more powerful band once it encounters the East end of the lake and pound the metro and areas just east.  

 

With such ridiculous Equilibrium levels, I am cautiously optimistic that I'll even squeak out 2-5 inches here on the West side of the ROC.  I'm hoping those deep convective clouds can punch well inland.  

 

Weird that we posted this simultaneously...

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A TROUGH OVERHEAD CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A

WELL DEPICTED RAIN-SNOW LINE ON DUAL POL IMAGERY FROM ALLEGANY

COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH LOWVILLE. LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN EDGE

IS FALLING INTO AN AREA JUST BARELY ABOVE FREEZING...WITH MAINLY

WET ROADS SEEN ON AREA WEBCAMS. THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT

ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT THE EVENT SEEMS

LIGHT ENOUGH TO REMOVE AN EXISTING ADVISORY. THIS WILL ALLOW FULL

FOCUS ON A MUCH MORE IMPORTANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT THAT WILL DEVELOP

LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM PREVIOUS DATASETS...AND

WILL CONTINUE WITH A HEAVY HANDED SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST...WITH SOME

LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO PUT DOWN 3-5 INCHES PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL

HOURS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FORECAST SCENARIO MATCHES

SEVERAL NEAR RECORD SETTING EVENTS...DECEMBER 2001 TO NAME

ONE. TOP 10 EVENTS FOR BUFFALO GENERALLY PUT DOWN 24 INCHES IN

24 HRS. DUE TO AN EXPECTED EXTREME GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF

THE LAKE BAND...KBUF MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT SEE THIS...BUT SEE NO

REASON WHY OTHER AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL NOT BE ABLE TO

EXCEED 24 INCHES...AND THAT IS JUST FOR THE FIRST EVENT ENDING

SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT ONE ON THURSDAY MAY

ALSO BE IMPRESSIVE...BUT THAT IS ANOTHER STORY...

500MB TEMPERATURE IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW -40C...A TESTAMENT TO

HOW UNUSUAL THE PATTERN WILL BE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS

ACROSS THE BOARD WILL BE SIMILARLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH 200MB WAY OF

THE CHARTS OVER A 30 YEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

WILL INCREASE FORECAST AMOUNTS A LITTLE...WITH UP TO 3 FEET IN THE

MOST HARD HIT AREAS...MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND

SOUTHTOWNS...AND OVER THE TUG HILL EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. HAVE

CREATED ABOUT AS TIGHT OF A GRADIENT AS POSSIBLE FROM KBUF TO THE

NORTHTOWNS...WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY DROPPING OFF TO AN INCH OR SO IN

NIAGARA COUNTY.

BLIZZARD CONSIDERATIONS...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO

PREVIOUS GUIDANCE...WITH BORDERLINE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER

WESTERN NY...AND A POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE SCENARIO EAST

OF LAKE ONTARIO. WILL CONTINUE TO REVIEW THE POTENTIAL SETUP THIS

AFTERNOON. COMPARISONS TO PREVIOUS NEAR AND VERIFYING LAKE EFFECT

BLIZZARDS DO NOT SHARE THE SAME PROFILE...WITH THIS EVENT

APPEARING TO BE CREATING ITS OWN STRONG WINDS WITHOUT AS MUCH

SUPPORT ALOFT. THIS IS NOT A CLEAR CUT CASE...NEED SOME MORE TIME TO

REVIEW THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE INTENSE LAKE SNOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH

THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH CAUSING THE

LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER. DURING MOST OF THIS TIME...THE INTENSE

LAKE SNOWS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS... SKI

COUNTY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW QUICKLY BACKS TO THE

SOUTHWEST CARRYING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BACK NORTH ACROSS THE

BUFFALO METRO AREA. BY THIS TIME THE BAND SHOULD BE IN A WEAKENING

PHASE AS INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER.

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Mike Bettes from the Weather Channel is in Hamburg reporting about the upcoming Lake Effect.

 

Thanks! I will make sure to watch later tonight. I've been away from Buffalo for over 15 years, but I still miss the storms like this one.

 

Anyone have any twitter handles or other recommendations on who/what to follow over the next couple days to watch this unfold?

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If only the bills were playing Monday night football at home tonight....  They probably would have postponed the game though.  

 

Anyway, the lake is already blowing up fast.  Lost of residual moisture to start so things are firing up quickly.  Latest radar trend already shows a nice jog northward...

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If only the bills were playing Monday night football at home tonight....  They probably would have postponed the game though.  

 

Anyway, the lake is already blowing up fast.  Lost of residual moisture to start so things are firing up quickly.  Latest radar trend already shows a nice jog northward...

 

That would have been EPIC!!! To be honest I really hope it does hit Kbuf hard! Hopefully all of Erie county gets in on the action.

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Where did you end up getting a hotel? Do you want to meet up tonight to chase? Ayuud are you chasing this at all?

I have actually been up here since Sunday staying in Williamsville.

However I am working in Lackawanna so have a hotel now booked in Hamburg...Holiday Inn Express. But don't check in until tomorrow.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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I have actually been up here since Sunday staying in Williamsville.

However I am working in Lackawanna so have a hotel now booked in Hamburg...Holiday Inn Express. But don't check in until tomorrow.

Sent from my iPhone

 

Oh awesome. My training is also in Williamsville. That hotel is pretty close to my house! Make sure to take lots of pictures if I am unable to.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY347 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014NYZ006>008-180500-/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0009.141120T0900Z-141121T1700Z//O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.141118T0000Z-141119T2000Z/OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE347 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THISEVENING TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY......LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHTTHROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGHFRIDAY MORNING.* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH THE GREATEST  AMOUNTS FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TUG HILL TO THE  WATERTOWN AND FORT DRUM AREAS.* TIMING...WARNING FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE  MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3  TO 4 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS.* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH PRODUCING  LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING  AND DRIFTING SNOW.

:mapsnow: :mapsnow:

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:mapsnow: :mapsnow:

 

I didn't get where Mike Bettes was at in Hamburg, just know he was reporting from there and the thruway was directly behind him in one of his live shots. Also showed a hotel near him also but that doesn't narrow it down very much since there is a hotel about every 5 feet lol.

 

haha yeah

 

He's at one of the traffic circles in Hamburg, just saw his live report!

 

I'm going there after I go to the gym.

 

Unless there is a driving ban i'm technically chasing it since i do those deliveries..

 

Are you driving tonight?

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