BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Yeah not a problem. I will be working by the airport tomorrow but my wife works from home and will be on full time video/picture duty. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I'll be interested to see if this event develops the classic double band that many of the hallmark events from the 90's had. That double band could bring a little extra to the immediate northtowns, or it could converge together into an even more powerful band once it encounters the East end of the lake and pound the metro and areas just east. With such ridiculous Equilibrium levels, I am cautiously optimistic that I'll even squeak out 2-5 inches here on the West side of the ROC. I'm hoping those deep convective clouds can punch well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 One thing to keep an eye on, at least at the start, is whether a secondary band forms at the north end of the lake. We've seen this happen a few times where northern areas get a surprise period of heavy snow before the band consolidates into a single feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I'll be interested to see if this event develops the classic double band that many of the hallmark events from the 90's had. That double band could bring a little extra to the immediate northtowns, or it could converge together into an even more powerful band once it encounters the East end of the lake and pound the metro and areas just east. With such ridiculous Equilibrium levels, I am cautiously optimistic that I'll even squeak out 2-5 inches here on the West side of the ROC. I'm hoping those deep convective clouds can punch well inland. Weird that we posted this simultaneously... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Usually the double band structure develops in bands with high winds like last years in January. Winds are supposed to be quite high in this one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Haha buffalo and delta with same thought at same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 New snow map from nws but can't post on phone. back to work see everyone later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crownweather Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Here is the new snow total map that BuffaloWeather referred to (I think) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 A TROUGH OVERHEAD CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WELL DEPICTED RAIN-SNOW LINE ON DUAL POL IMAGERY FROM ALLEGANY COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH LOWVILLE. LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN EDGE IS FALLING INTO AN AREA JUST BARELY ABOVE FREEZING...WITH MAINLY WET ROADS SEEN ON AREA WEBCAMS. THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT THE EVENT SEEMS LIGHT ENOUGH TO REMOVE AN EXISTING ADVISORY. THIS WILL ALLOW FULL FOCUS ON A MUCH MORE IMPORTANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM PREVIOUS DATASETS...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A HEAVY HANDED SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST...WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO PUT DOWN 3-5 INCHES PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FORECAST SCENARIO MATCHES SEVERAL NEAR RECORD SETTING EVENTS...DECEMBER 2001 TO NAME ONE. TOP 10 EVENTS FOR BUFFALO GENERALLY PUT DOWN 24 INCHES IN 24 HRS. DUE TO AN EXPECTED EXTREME GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LAKE BAND...KBUF MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT SEE THIS...BUT SEE NO REASON WHY OTHER AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL NOT BE ABLE TO EXCEED 24 INCHES...AND THAT IS JUST FOR THE FIRST EVENT ENDING SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT ONE ON THURSDAY MAY ALSO BE IMPRESSIVE...BUT THAT IS ANOTHER STORY... 500MB TEMPERATURE IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW -40C...A TESTAMENT TO HOW UNUSUAL THE PATTERN WILL BE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS ACROSS THE BOARD WILL BE SIMILARLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH 200MB WAY OF THE CHARTS OVER A 30 YEAR CLIMATOLOGY. WILL INCREASE FORECAST AMOUNTS A LITTLE...WITH UP TO 3 FEET IN THE MOST HARD HIT AREAS...MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND SOUTHTOWNS...AND OVER THE TUG HILL EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. HAVE CREATED ABOUT AS TIGHT OF A GRADIENT AS POSSIBLE FROM KBUF TO THE NORTHTOWNS...WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY DROPPING OFF TO AN INCH OR SO IN NIAGARA COUNTY. BLIZZARD CONSIDERATIONS...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS GUIDANCE...WITH BORDERLINE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NY...AND A POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE SCENARIO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WILL CONTINUE TO REVIEW THE POTENTIAL SETUP THIS AFTERNOON. COMPARISONS TO PREVIOUS NEAR AND VERIFYING LAKE EFFECT BLIZZARDS DO NOT SHARE THE SAME PROFILE...WITH THIS EVENT APPEARING TO BE CREATING ITS OWN STRONG WINDS WITHOUT AS MUCH SUPPORT ALOFT. THIS IS NOT A CLEAR CUT CASE...NEED SOME MORE TIME TO REVIEW THIS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... OFF LAKE ERIE...THE INTENSE LAKE SNOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH CAUSING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER. DURING MOST OF THIS TIME...THE INTENSE LAKE SNOWS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS... SKI COUNTY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. ON WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW QUICKLY BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST CARRYING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BACK NORTH ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. BY THIS TIME THE BAND SHOULD BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE AS INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 It's sleeting like crazy in blasdell ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Mike Bettes from the Weather Channel is in Hamburg reporting about the upcoming Lake Effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Mike Bettes from the Weather Channel is in Hamburg reporting about the upcoming Lake Effect. Thanks! I will make sure to watch later tonight. I've been away from Buffalo for over 15 years, but I still miss the storms like this one. Anyone have any twitter handles or other recommendations on who/what to follow over the next couple days to watch this unfold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 20,000 J/kg...wow Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Mike Bettes from the Weather Channel is in Hamburg reporting about the upcoming Lake Effect. Just got home from work, Bunkering down, hopefully the thruway closes so I don't have to go to work tomorrow. Do you know where abouts in Hamburg he is located? I want to go on Tv!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 20,000 J/kg...wow Sent from my iPhone Where did you end up getting a hotel? Do you want to meet up tonight to chase? Ayuud are you chasing this at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 3-5 inches per hour is just absurd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 If only the bills were playing Monday night football at home tonight.... They probably would have postponed the game though. Anyway, the lake is already blowing up fast. Lost of residual moisture to start so things are firing up quickly. Latest radar trend already shows a nice jog northward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 If only the bills were playing Monday night football at home tonight.... They probably would have postponed the game though. Anyway, the lake is already blowing up fast. Lost of residual moisture to start so things are firing up quickly. Latest radar trend already shows a nice jog northward... That would have been EPIC!!! To be honest I really hope it does hit Kbuf hard! Hopefully all of Erie county gets in on the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Where did you end up getting a hotel? Do you want to meet up tonight to chase? Ayuud are you chasing this at all?I have actually been up here since Sunday staying in Williamsville.However I am working in Lackawanna so have a hotel now booked in Hamburg...Holiday Inn Express. But don't check in until tomorrow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 I have actually been up here since Sunday staying in Williamsville. However I am working in Lackawanna so have a hotel now booked in Hamburg...Holiday Inn Express. But don't check in until tomorrow. Sent from my iPhone Oh awesome. My training is also in Williamsville. That hotel is pretty close to my house! Make sure to take lots of pictures if I am unable to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Will do Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 This band is totally heading up north towards the airport based on upstream radars. As I already stated earlier this will end up way farther north than predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 This band is totally heading up north towards the airport based on upstream radars. As I already stated earlier this will end up way farther north than predicted. That would be sweet...get more of Erie county in on action Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I didn't get where Mike Bettes was at in Hamburg, just know he was reporting from there and the thruway was directly behind him in one of his live shots. Also showed a hotel near him also but that doesn't narrow it down very much since there is a hotel about every 5 feet lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 He's at one of the traffic circles in Hamburg, just saw his live report! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Where did you end up getting a hotel? Do you want to meet up tonight to chase? Ayuud are you chasing this at all Unless there is a driving ban i'm technically chasing it since i do those deliveries.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY347 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014NYZ006>008-180500-/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0009.141120T0900Z-141121T1700Z//O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.141118T0000Z-141119T2000Z/OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE347 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THISEVENING TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY......LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHTTHROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGHFRIDAY MORNING.* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TUG HILL TO THE WATERTOWN AND FORT DRUM AREAS.* TIMING...WARNING FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 4 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS.* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH PRODUCING LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. :mapsnow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 :mapsnow: I didn't get where Mike Bettes was at in Hamburg, just know he was reporting from there and the thruway was directly behind him in one of his live shots. Also showed a hotel near him also but that doesn't narrow it down very much since there is a hotel about every 5 feet lol. haha yeah He's at one of the traffic circles in Hamburg, just saw his live report! I'm going there after I go to the gym. Unless there is a driving ban i'm technically chasing it since i do those deliveries.. Are you driving tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 haha yeah I'm going there after I go to the gym. Are you driving tonight? Nope btw check out the orientation of that band forming over at the western end of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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