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Historic Lake Effect Snowstorm


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Latest AFD

"NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --

...RENEWED LAKE EFFECT WILL DUMP MULTIPLE FEET OF SNOW ON AREAS

NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...INCLUDING THE AREA THAT

WAS JUST CRIPPLED WITH 3 TO 5 FEET OF SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE...

A PATTERN VERY REMINISCENT OF LAST YEARS WINTER WILL BE IN PLACE

ACROSS NORTH AMERICA TODAY...AS RIDGING WILL BE FOUND OVER THE

WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONTINENT WHILE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH WILL

BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP THE DOOR WIDE OPEN

FOR COLD AIR TO CONTINUE TO POUR SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE RELATIVELY

WARM WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES. THEREIN LIES THE FORECAST PROBLEM

FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

A DEEP...CYCLONIC FLOW OF -14C H85 AIR WILL CIRCULATE ACROSS LAKES

ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ESTABLISH IMPRESSIVE

INSTABILITY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND WITH A LOW SHEAR

ENVIRONMENT AND A CAPPING INVERSION RISING FROM 10K FT TO AT LEAST

15K...THE INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER PROMINENT ROUND

OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. WHILE THIS WILL CERTAINLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON

SITES EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...A GREATER CONCERN WILL BE

NORTHEAST OF LK ERIE WHERE THIS SNOW WILL FALL ON AREAS THAT

RECEIVED UP TO FIVE FEET OF SNOW JUST 30 HOURS AGO.

A FAIRLY PERSISTENT 250 TO 260 FLOW IS FORECAST BY THE BULK OF THE

ON STATION 6KM MESOSCALE MODELS...WHICH JUST HAPPENED TO PERFORM

ADMIRABLY DURING THE JUST ENDED HISTORIC EVENT. OUR FORECAST WILL BE

BASED ON A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND AN AVERAGE OF THESE 6KM MODELS...

WITH A SUBTLE TENDENCY TO KEEP THE AXIS OF THE BAND ABOUT 10 MILES

NORTH OF THE MODELS DUE TO THE EARLY SEASON LAKE AGGREGATE EFFECT.

THIS WILL PLACE THE BAND TODAY OVER THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORE AND

STRETCH IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ERIE COUNTY...WITH

THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE BAND OVER THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS WHILE

REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO METROPOLITAN AREA.

SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE

BAND...WITH SOMEWHAT LACKING MOISTURE ABV 6K KEEPING RATES FROM

BEING ANY MORE IMPRESSIVE. COMPARING THIS TO THE MOST RECENT

EVENT...SNOWFALL RATES OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES PER HOUR WERE FOUND

WITH IT. IN ANY CASE...SUCH AS ORCHARD PARK...HAMBURG...EAST AURORA

AND MARILLA COULD EASILY PICK UP ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOW TODAY. IT

IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW COULD BE

ACCOMPANIED BY SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT

WITH A MORE SHALLOW MIXED PHASE CLOUD IN PLACE AS COMPARED TO THIS

PAST EVENING (WHEN THUNDERSNOW WAS WIDESPREAD)...THE ODDS TODAY ARE

A BIT LONGER."

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I love how the special weather statements are like this now....I think the NWS is sick of the snow lol! No specifics anymore.

 

TLR- It's going to snow in Buffalo, be careful.

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...* AT 347 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ALAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND. THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED FROMBUFFALO TO ROCHESTER.* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND INCLUDE...  METRO BUFFALO AND NORTHTOWNS...  FAR SOUTHEAST NIAGARA COUNTY...  AKRON TO BATAVIA...  NORTHERN GENESEE COUNTY...  WESTERN MONROE COUNTY...THIS INCLUDES THE NEW YORK THRUWAY BETWEEN EXITS 47 AND 56.DRIVING WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOWCOVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. IF TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA SLOW DOWNAND BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD AND WEATHER CONDITIONS.
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I just heard thunder and looks like Kbuf is getting it too.

 

Last Updated: Nov 20 2014, 3:54 am EST
Thu, 20 Nov 2014 03:54:00 -0500 Weather: Thunderstorm Heavy Snow Freezing Fog Temperature: 28.0 °F (-2.2 °C) Dewpoint: 25.0 °F (-3.9 °C) Relative Humidity: 88 % Wind: from the West at 11.5 gusting to 19.6 MPH (10 gusting to 17 KT) Wind Chill: 18 F (-8 C) Visibility: 0.25 miles MSL Pressure: 1008.5 mb Altimeter: 29.75 in Hg

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Serious...

NYZ010>012-085-201700-

/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0012.000000T0000Z-141121T0600Z/

NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...

ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE

349 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST

FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS

INCLUDES THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS

EXPECTED FROM SOUTH BUFFALO TO THE NEARBY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN

SUBURBS EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF GENESEE COUNTY

AND THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF WYOMING COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES THROUGH 6 AM...MORE THAN 2 FEET

TODAY...AND 5 TO 10 INCHES TONIGHT.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A FEW HUNDRED FEET AT TIMES.

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