Superstorm Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 That AFD is just gorgeous to read. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 BUF has upgraded to a warning: ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO5 PM EST MONDAY......LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 1 PMEST WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM ESTWEDNESDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THISWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5PM EST MONDAY.* LOCATIONS...ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDING THEBUFFALO METRO AREA.* TIMING...ADVISORY FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAYAFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM EARLY MONDAY EVENINGTHROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.* HAZARDS...A GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW LATER TONIGHT THROUGHMONDAY. LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH BLOWINGAND DRIFTING SNOW MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATING 1 TO 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND 2TO 4 INCHES MONDAY LEADING TO TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES FROM THEGENERAL SNOW. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 FEET IN THE MOSTPERSISTENT BANDS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH LATE MONDAYNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING ANDDRIFTING SNOW WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES.* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE IN THE GENERAL SNOW LATERTONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NEAR ZERO AT TIMES LATER MONDAY NIGHTTHROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.* IMPACTS...THE GENERAL SNOWFALL WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED ANDSLIPPERY ROADS. THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE VERY SLIPPERYAND SLOW. INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW LATER MONDAYNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT TRAVELAT TIMES. SOME ROADS MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPASSABLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crownweather Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 18Z NAM snow total map through 7 pm Wednesday. Just wow at the forecast totals near Hamburg and Orchard Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 From Mr. Tom Niziol from TWC: OK Geeks, here is an update with today's 12z GFS. This is the 12z GFS BUFKIT data. BUFKIT was orginally developed to allow operational forecasters to evaluate the atmosphere at point locations on an hourly basis. It is an excellent tool for convection as well as lake-effect snow. It was also developed before high resolution numerical modelling was available in the mainstream. So we developed a number of tools to help us evaluate the instability over the lakes (lake-induced CAPE and EL) and wind direction. Below you will see the GFS 12z run for Buffalo, NY. The top image shows the lake-induced CAPE (white and left y-axis) and EL (yellow and right y-axis). The bottom image shows the average wind direction from about 950mb through 700mb. The blue horizontal bar denotes a range of wind directions (~245-255 degrees) that line a band up over parts of metro Buffalo. The first image helps us to evaluate instability, the second shows where snow bands could set up. Buffalo looks like it will get its fair share of lake effect. Most will likely fall just south of the city as usual. Off Lake Ontario a similar scenario will play out. Of course, the Upper Great lakes will also get their fair share. I would watch SW Lower Michigan, I think they will get hammered !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 12+ probs. 2 straight days of being in the middle of those probs. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Man, it's looking really good for you Buffaloweather. I'd say at this point, anywhere from Seneca to Hamburg to Orchard Park down to Eden could see 2-4 feet of snow in the best banding. The instability right now on Bufkit from the latest runs of the models is staggering for that locale. Whenever you see Lake induced CAPE peaking at 1500 J/kg and heights to 21k feet, you got yourself the makings of something special. If this event was for next week, I'd probably wouldn't mind coming up to see this one, but sadly stuck for one more week of classes down in here in wet SE PA haha. Enjoy and I'll be sure to check back tomorrow night into Wednesday to see how everything is unfolding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Should be a pretty darn impressive event for at least the southern part of BUF and parts of the Tug Hill. Easily could see 2-3 feet in both locations. I'll be missed but it should be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Man, it's looking really good for you Buffaloweather. I'd say at this point, anywhere from Seneca to Hamburg to Orchard Park down to Eden could see 2-4 feet of snow in the best banding. The instability right now on Bufkit from the latest runs of the models is staggering for that locale. Whenever you see Lake induced CAPE peaking at 1500 J/kg and heights to 21k feet, you got yourself the makings of something special. If this event was for next week, I'd probably wouldn't mind coming up to see this one, but sadly stuck for one more week of classes down in here in wet SE PA haha. Enjoy and I'll be sure to check back tomorrow night into Wednesday to see how everything is unfolding. Yeah, I am definitely excited for this one. I am going to be really busy this week so won't be able to document as well as I would like to. Hopefully others take videos/pictures and post on here. My wife works from home so I'm giving her that duty all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 I see you there OSU, chime in please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Feets and feets of snow for many!! By Saturday, some 1 week totals will go above 50".....conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Insane! The trainer in my class for work is already talking about possible cancelations for th class. Took me 75 mins to drive in this morning. Can't even imagine what it's goijf to be like tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I'm liking the activity coming off Lake Michigan in lower Michigan right now: http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USMI0127&animate=true That's some deep cold air about to be unleashed over the lower lakes: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ Powder keg.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Lake Erie and Lake Ontario right now = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crownweather Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 12Z NAM model snow total forecast from today through Thursday evening. Also, just noticed that the higher resolution (4km) NAM forecasts a 250 wind fetch starting around 3 am tomorrow, then remaining at 250 all day tomorrow before switching to a more 255-260 degree direction after 8 pm tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Very impressive snowfall forecast gradients between south and north of downtown Buffalo. I had to save myself a copy your area forecast discussion with all the neat technicalities included. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on I have relatives to the north of Buffalo throughout Niagara county that think this will be a low impact event and I'm curious about all your thoughts for that area? Good luck to all of you while I go back to lurking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Very impressive snowfall forecast gradients between south and north of downtown Buffalo. I had to save myself a copy your area forecast discussion with all the neat technicalities included. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on I have relatives to the north of Buffalo throughout Niagara county that think this will be a low impact event and I'm curious about all your thoughts for that area? Good luck to all of you while I go back to lurking! Yes, this probably keeps forecasters up at night. A shift of the band by just a few miles north can make the difference in 130K + people getting 2 feet or 2 inches. As far as Niagara County goes, BUF only has that area getting 2-4 inches and probably all of that is from the synoptic storm today. The views from the Niagara Escarpment looking south at the lake effect band off the lake should be pretty wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Where is there a clear view to the south from the escarpment? On the Ontario side, or the NY side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Where is there a clear view to the south from the escarpment? On the Ontario side, or the NY side?try outwater park right in Lockport. Right on the edge of the escarpment with some pretty big open fields. Bet there will be quite a view from there tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 try outwater park right in Lockport. Right on the edge of the escarpment with some pretty big open fields. Bet there will be quite a view from there tomorrow. Thanks, I'll head up there, weather permitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Don't really watch the Weather Channel much, but will any of their reporters be covering this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crownweather Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I just drew up a total snow forecast map by the time the Lake Effect is over at the end of the week. I think that the most persistent bands will set up from south Buffalo and points south. I do think that the bands should be persistent enough for a time on Tuesday and then again for several hours during the day Wednesday after shifting to south of downtown Buffalo during Wednesday night to produce a foot of snow even for downtown Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Nice map crown and Devin I will keep you updated with pics n videos. I wish you could drive up and chase this one with me. Should be an epic event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 I have to add this... But nearly All lake effect snow events go farther north then modeled in early season events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Nice map crown and Devin I will keep you updated with pics n videos. I wish you could drive up and chase this one with me. Should be an epic event.Thanks BuffaloWeather, if I could get off from work believe me I would be there in a heartbeat. I'll be there next week though so hopefully there's still some big piles around and maybe some mood flakes or better in the air. Enjoy this one brother!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 2010 the predicted big hit spots were Hamburg op and the jackpot was south buffalo. 2000 rings a bell as well as 2001 and 2006. Last years as well got 18 inches to the airport. Going to be interesting to see how this unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crownweather Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Nice map crown and Devin I will keep you updated with pics n videos. I wish you could drive up and chase this one with me. Should be an epic event. Agreed!! Wish I could come out too. Next winter for sure when I'm living out there. Do you mind if I tweet any of the pictures you may post? My twitter feed is at https://twitter.com/crownweather . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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