Historic Lake Effect Snowstorm

[2001kx]

Been following this from eastern NC and all I can say is WOW. Thanks all for the continuing pictures and videos. Those roofs look scary, can't imagine all that weight on them especially once the sun comes out and starts melting it and making the snow heavier. Stay safe all those who are in the thick of this.

5 lbs of snow weighs the same as 5 lbs of water

[BuffaloWeather]

Up from my nap. Needed some sleep man. Going to take a video of some of the damage right now and try to clear out my driveway before round 2. I have a long driveway with just a shovel, Good Luck me!

[2001kx]

Up from my nap. Needed some sleep man. Going to take a video of some of the damage right now and try to clear out my driveway before round 2. I have a long driveway with just a shovel, Good Luck me!

Sucks to be your back...I would trade you in a heartbeat though..

[yotaman]

5 lbs of snow weighs the same as 5 lbs of water

 Yeah but to get 5 pounds of snow you generally need a lot but add the sun and you will need a lot less if you know what I mean.

[DeltaT13]

It did not. 5" of QPF with these ratios would've resulted in much higher totals.

 

I think that value is a lot closer than you are making it out to be.  I honestly feel that someone got 80" yesterday but it could never be measured accurately before compacting.  Therefore if you started the event near 15:1 and ended the event around 25:1 you are very close to 5 inches of liquid.  Pretty damn impressive model.

[canderson]

Up from my nap. Needed some sleep man. Going to take a video of some of the damage right now and try to clear out my driveway before round 2. I have a long driveway with just a shovel, Good Luck me!

You live in the LES belt and don't have a snowblower at all?

 

God bless you!

[pawatch]

I think that value is a lot closer than you are making it out to be.  I honestly feel that someone got 80" yesterday but it could never be measured accurately before compacting.  Therefore if you started the event near 15:1 and ended the event around 25:1 you are very close to 5 inches of liquid.  Pretty damn impressive model.

What is that model showing for this next event?

[Ginx snewx]

Enjoy Buffalo soldier once you tunnel your way back to your house

 

https://twitter.com/TomNiziol

[crownweather]

What is that model showing for this next event?

 

That model (BTV 4km WRF) is forecasting a max of 3.50 inches of QPF from Orchard Park ENE to East Aurora and Atica from tonight through all day tomorrow into tomorrow night.    

[Thundersnow12]

18z NAM looks a bit more impressive than previous runs with a very healthy single band tomorrow evening looking at 850mb UVV's and QPF. 

[Ridingtime]

This thread has been mesmerizing. It's like looking at my paradise, my wildest snow weenie dreams. I must experience something like this in my lifetime.

[OSUmetstud]

damn

 

Daily Precipitation Report   Station Number: NY-ER-96  Station Name: Elma 2.7 WSW Observation Date 11/19/2014 7:00 AM Submitted 11/19/2014 7:34 AM Total Precip Amount NA Notes The sun has finally come out. First time in 2 days it is not snowing. So much snow. It is starting to compact. Will get a core measure later today. Have to find my cylinder. Taken at registered location Yes Snow Information New Snow Depth NA New Snow Water Equivalent NA Total Snow Depth 57.0 in. Total Snow Water Equivalent NA Duration Information Precipitation Began -- Precipitation Ended -- Heavy Precip Began -- Heavy Precip Lasted -- Duration Time Accuracy -- Additional Information Additional Data Recorded No Flooding --

[MAG5035]

BGM just posted this gem to their facebook not too long ago. 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

I have to say this is the heaviest lake effect snow I've ever seen since Oct. 2006. My 35 inch base is concrete. I gave up after an hour of shoveling. I barely got half my car done...It started snowing again, here we go...

 

I'll have some video and a few pictures in a little bit.

[BuffaloWeather]

I'm not leaving until next week. I did shovel enough to take accurate measurements this time on the snowboard. I will be taking them every 6 hours starting now 3:30.

[Ginx snewx]

Nam TT's again in the 50's with Cape over 1000, wow, and today's Euro is showing next week more LES

[BuffaloWeather]

I'm not a spotter but I really need to know the liquid equivalent of this. This is solid slop all the way through with the compaction.

[OSUmetstud]

I've got a serious case of cabin fever.  Hunkered down here with three other people who are also trapped here.  5 people in this small apartment makes nick a dull boy. 

[BuffaloWeather]

I've got a serious case of cabin fever.  Hunkered down here with three other people who are also trapped here.  5 people in this small apartment makes nick a dull boy. 

 

haha! It's just me and my wife here. My wife works from home, so nothing is stopping her this week. 

[Ginx snewx]

I'm not a spotter but I really need to know the liquid equivalent of this. This is solid slop all the way through with the compaction.

Hamburg Spotter Cocorahs 3.55 QPF 50.5 inches of snow two day .

 

14.25-1 ratio

[ayuud11]

I've got a serious case of cabin fever.  Hunkered down here with three other people who are also trapped here.  5 people in this small apartment makes nick a dull boy. 

How much can the city expect with tonight's LES? any chance it's further northward than this past one? i know im threading the needle here lol..Btw another LES potential for late next week

 

 

 

... Significant lake effect snow event to impact areas hard

hit downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario...

For this evening a light general snowfall will cross the region with

light isentropic ascent ahead of a sharpening upper level trough.

Expect light snow across SW New York state this afternoon to spread

northeastward across the region. Snowfall amounts with this system

will be light with a general half to two inches across the region.

Attention will then turn to the Second Lake effect snow event of the

week.

The broad scale pattern will again feature a deep trough over the

Great Lakes region with a closed 500 hpa low near the Soo. 850 hpa

trough is also deep with a closed low near Lake Huron tonight. This

pattern with the deepness and location of the closed lows is very

similar to prior events that have produced significant lake effect

snow downwind of both eastern Great Lakes.

A look at the lake effect parameters...they again will line up with

significant lake effect snow events. Behind the brief warming aloft

this evening a cold front will cross the region with a freshening

blast of Arctic air dropping temperatures down to -14c.

Off Lake Erie...by midnight winds will again align on a SW flow with

lake induced equilibrium levels rising to 15k feet. Moisture will

deepen within the snow dendritic growth zone later overnight with a

band of snow expected over Niagara County. As the base of the

anomalously deep trough slides from the central Great Lakes eastward

the steering winds in the lower levels will become more westerly.

This will drop the lake effect snow band southward...crossing the

northtowns of Buffalo late overnight. Initially we are expecting

snowfall rates of an inch per hour. Then as the capping inversion

grows...and the flow passes the entire long fetch of the lake expect

snowfall rates to increase such that 3 to 4 inches per hour will be

likely by Thursday morning. At this time the band of snow will

likely be just to the south of a line from Buffalo to Batavia...very

similar to this prior event that just ended. While a half foot or

more of snow is expected by sunrise tomorrow...up to 2 feet will be

expected again through the daylight hours tomorrow. With the band of

snow nearly stationary...expect again a narrow band of significant

snow. It is still a little to early to tell whether this band of

heavy snow will align with the axis of heavy snow from the prior

event (which if it does it would yield weekly snow totals near 100

inches) or fall just several miles north or south of this line of

heavy snow from the first event. By late afternoon as the axis of

the upper level trough swings across Lake Erie the lake effect

snowband will refocus upon the ski country and points farther as the

evening hours draw upon US.

Off Lake Ontario...the lake effect snowband will initially form

along the Saint Lawrence valley in the hours after midnight. These

SW winds will veer slightly through the later portions of the night

with the lake effect snowband dropping down into the metropolitan Watertown

area and out towards Fort Drum. This southwest wind flow will limit

the snowfall rate initially with snowfall rates of around an inch per

hour through the valley. As the winds veer some...lake induced

equilibrium levels rise towards 16 to 18k feet and wind sheer

minimizes expect these snowfall rates to increase to around 3 inches

per hour by around dawn tomorrow. A good convergent flow along the

lake axis will bring a band of lake effect snow eastward across

Jefferson and Lewis County. Snowfall rates off Lake

Ontario...similar to the prior event may not be as great as off

Lake Erie due to the 'southwest' flow. This will yield snowfall

totals tomorrow a little less than Lake Erie with 1.5 to 2 feet of

snow expected through the daylight hours. While the band of snow

will be focused towards Watertown/Fort Drum and then the northern

tug...an upslope flow through the entire Tug Hill will support light

snow showers south of the band of heaviest snowfall.

Off of both lakes...though the tall capping inversion will not

include thundersnow to begin the forecast...based on similar

profiles not producing thundersnow within The Heart of the snowband

with this prior event. That said...cannot rule out some thundersnow

occurring.

Outside these two snowbands there will be sunny breaks through the

day tomorrow. Another bitterly cold night and day are on tap under

this cold Arctic airmass. Lows tonight will range through the teens

across the southern tier and north country to lower 20s elsewhere.

Highs tomorrow will only add about 10 degrees to the prior nights

lows. With the gusty winds single digits to low teens wind chills

are expected through this time period.

&&

Short term /Thursday night through Friday Night/...

Lake effect storm round 2 will still be ongoing through the short

term period and will be the main focus of the forecast. From a

synoptic standpoint a strong middle level shortwave will cross the

lower lakes Thursday evening. This may produce a few scattered snow

showers with spotty light accumulations outside of lake effect

areas. Any synoptic snow should be over with by Friday morning. This

shortwave will have a significant impact on lake effect snow

location...veering winds from the west-southwest to the northwest Thursday

night and moving the lake effect snow away from the hardest hit

areas.

Off Lake Erie...

lake induced equilibrium levels remain around 15k feet Thursday

night through Friday morning before dropping steadily during the day

Friday as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley and dries the

column and lowers a subsidence inversion.

Expect a band of heavy snow with snowfall rates of at least 2-3

inches per hour to still be ongoing along the Lake Erie shore from

Ripley to the Buffalo southtowns and Wyoming County early Thursday

evening. This band should push steadily southeast during the evening

as boundary layer flow veers...then weaken overnight and evolve into

more of a northwest flow/upslope event along the Chautauqua ridge by

Friday morning. Expect most of the snow to be confined to Chautauqua

and western Cattaraugus counties during the day Friday with the best

snow across the higher terrain inland from the lake...and much

lighter snow along the thruway corridor. The lake snow should

steadily weaken Friday afternoon as inversion heights lower. Friday

evening a weak band of snow showers may try to move back north

towards Buffalo as boundary layer flow backs to the southwest...but

by this time inversion heights will be crashing...so expect a very

quick weakening trend.

Off Lake Ontario...

lake induced equilibrium levels will peak around 18k feet Thursday

night before dropping steadily during the day then dropping off even

more quickly Friday night.

Expect a band of heavy snow with snowfall rates of 3-5 inches per

hour to be just south of Watertown and Fort Drum early Thursday

evening. The band will settle a little farther south to the central

Tug Hill overnight before reaching central Oswego County by Friday

morning. Mesoscale model guidance including the operational NAM

suggests the band may stall for at least a few hours across the

central Tug Hill overnight when it will still have very strong

snowfall rates.

Friday morning the band is forecast to drop quickly south across

Oswego County as a rapid wind shift crosses the lake in the wake of

the middle level shortwave. The NAM would suggest this wind shift will

occur fast enough to push the entire single band bodily onshore and

break it apart into multiple bands quickly...which will then impact

areas from Wayne to Oswego County during the day on Friday. We had a

discussion with weather forecast office bgm on potentially issuing a lake effect snow

watch for Wayne and northern Cayuga counties...however with some

mesoscale model guidance showing a very transitory band there is not

enough confidence yet on higher amounts in those areas but this will

continue to be monitored.

Lake snow will probably also spread farther west along the South

Shore of the lake on Friday bringing spotty accumulations to the

Lakeshore of Monroe County and the eastern suburbs of Rochester.

Friday night boundary layer flow will begin to back...which will

carry one or multiple bands of snow back north across Oswego County

during the evening...reaching Watertown well after midnight.

Inversion heights are crashing at this point under strong warm

advection...so this should be relatively light on the way back north.

Temperatures will remain well below normal through the end of the

week with highs and lows more typical of January than late November.

Winds will still be very gusty Thursday night with significant

blowing and drifting snow in and near the lake snow bands.

Looking into the middle of the week for the important Thanksgiving

Holiday travel time period...colder air will filter back into the

Great Lakes. Both the GFS and ecwmf drop 850mb temperatures to -8c to -10c

by Wednesday with cyclonic southwesterly flow...suggesting the

potential for another lake effect event.

Stay tuned. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Hamburg Spotter Cocorahs 3.55 QPF 50.5 inches of snow two day .

 

14.25-1 ratio

 

Sounds about right.

[BuffaloWeather]

Round 2

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Amazing video.

 

http://wivb.com/2014/11/19/video-drone-shows-aerial-view-of-west-seneca/

[BuffaloWeather]

Just got this from someone on my Youtube channel.

 

Hey Rich!

Thanks for the message back. Is this video currently being licensed?

We’d like to distribute it to our clients that span 52 countries total, including major newspapers, magazines, websites and television shows. We can offer you a 50/50 share of all revenue.

We’re also producing a series about caught on camera moments for Discovery, and would love to use this video as part of that.

Please let me know what you think, I can send you our agreement to look over.

Best,

Samantha

[Superstorm]

Just got this from someone on my Youtube channel.

Hey Rich!

Thanks for the message back. Is this video currently being licensed?

We’d like to distribute it to our clients that span 52 countries total, including major newspapers, magazines, websites and television shows. We can offer you a 50/50 share of all revenue.

We’re also producing a series about caught on camera moments for Discovery, and would love to use this video as part of that.

Please let me know what you think, I can send you our agreement to look over.

Best,

Samantha

Dude that is awesome!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[sctvman]

Kent State-Buffalo has been postponed because of the snow. UB's stadium is in Amherst.

[wxeyeNH]

Lurking from over here in NH.  Epic week for you guys.  Of the general 2-4 feet of snow from round one how much would you estimated compacted today?  I would guess you might have lost 6-12".  Just curious how deep the first dumping will be before round 2.  The amount of snow that will be on the ground by tomorrow eve could be epic if the new band sets up over the same areas as round 1.   Looking forward to the pics and videos tomorrow!

[chietanen]

Seneca St in South Buffalo. The shovel in the picture is basically where the road would be, a major thoroughfare in South Buffalo.

 

 

Also on Seneca St, just over the city line in West Seneca 

 

[BuffaloWeather]