Historic Lake Effect Snowstorm

[ayuud11]

Latest AFD

 

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW APPEARING MORE LIKELY DOWNWIND OF
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE-BASED RIDGING
INITIALLY DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING
MODEST SURFACE WAVE THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. THE INCIPIENT BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT WEAK BANDS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WITH THESE THEN FADING OUT
AND GIVING WAY TO AN ADVANCING LARGER AREA OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW APPROACHES AND CAUSES THE STEERING FLOW TO
BACK TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY ORIENTATION AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
SHEARED. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SHORT WINDOW OF THE MOST FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE
LAKE SNOWS TO REMAIN LIMITED TO THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WITH THE DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC SNOWS THEN
LEADING TO A HALF INCH TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW AREAWIDE. WITH RESPECT
TO THE LATTER...ANY SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN ACCUMS OF GREATER THAN AN
INCH SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER...WHERE THE SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLIER.

ON MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE WILL THEN BODILY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. IN THE
PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THIS THEN
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. AT THIS
JUNCTURE...BOTH THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE BOTH LOOK TO BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT TO RAISE POPS UP INTO THE
CATEGORICAL RANGE.

IN TERMS OF PTYPE...IT STILL APPEARS THAT OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN SPITE OF THE OVERALL WARM ADVECTION
REGIME...THOUGH IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WHERE TEMPS ALOFT MAY FLIRT
WITH THE FREEZING MARK FOR A PERIOD DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.
WHEN TRANSLATED INTO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THE CURRENT MODEL QPF
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW AREAWIDE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS APPEARING MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. TAKEN IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE SNOWFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
LOCATIONS PUSHING OR EVEN REACHING LOW-END ADVISORY CRITERIA
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...FOR WHICH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY.

AFTER ALL THIS...THINGS SHOULD THEN TURN DRAMATICALLY MORE
INTERESTING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD...AS MUCH COLDER AIR
SURGES INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PLUNGING TO THE -14C TO -16C RANGE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN REMAINING IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY. COUPLED WITH AN INCREASING BACKGROUND
SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A DRY SLOT MONDAY
EVENING AND AN INCREASINGLY WELL-ALIGNED FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES...
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LAKE RESPONSE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LAKE SNOWS AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME...WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES STILL
SHOWING SOME SUBTLE VARIATIONS IN THEIR EVOLUTIONS OF THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD. THIS STATED...THE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR DIVING TO OUR SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN SHOWING THERMALLY-ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DUE TO THE
COMBINED /I.E. LAKE AGGREGATE/ DIABATIC WARMING EFFECTS OF THE
LAKES. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR A MORE
NORTHERLY POSITION TO THE LAKE BANDS THAN OFFERED BY SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE...WHICH TYPICALLY HAS A SOUTHERLY BIAS THIS EARLY IN THE
SEASON DUE TO THE LATTER PROCESS.

PUTTING ALL THIS TOGETHER...EXPECT THE DOMINANT FLOW DURING THE
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD TO BE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY IN NATURE
OR ALONG THE LINES OF THE MORE BACKED FLOW SEEN IN THE 12Z NAM AND
ECMWF... THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY ALSO BE A COUPLE SHORTER PERIODS
OF MORE WESTERLY FLOW AS WELL...WITH ONE OF THESE COMING MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER COMING TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
COUPLED SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO
VERIFY...THE LAKE SNOWS WOULD TEND TO BE FOCUSED EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES AND AFFECTING THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS DURING
TUESDAY...WITH SOME SOUTHWARD FORAYS EXPECTED FOR A TIME BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE...WE HAVE ELECTED TO HOIST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WATCHES DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING...THEN
CONTINUING ON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE...THE WATCH WILL COVER AREAS FROM NORTHERN
ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN TIER
GIVEN THE POSSIBLE FLUCTUATIONS/LINGERING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
BAND POSITION...WITH ALLEGANY COUNTY INCLUDED GIVEN WHAT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WIND FIELDS TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT INLAND
PENETRATION. MEANWHILE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE WATCH WILL
COVER THE USUAL SUSPECTS OF OSWEGO...JEFFERSON...AND LEWIS COUNTIES.
AT THIS POINT THE MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH HAVE STARTED THE
WATCH SOME 12 HOURS EARLIER EAST OF BOTH LAKES GIVEN THAT THERE
SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME LAKE RESPONSE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS
ESPECIALLY THE CASE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.

BY THE TIME WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE REGION...WITH THIS FEATURE AND ITS ATTENDANT
SYNOPTIC SNOWS REACHING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE
PROCESS...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FORCE A RAPID BACKING OF THE WINDS
WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE LAKE SNOWS QUICKLY
SHIFTING TO AREAS NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND DRAMATICALLY
WEAKENING BY MIDDAY...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MORE GENERAL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL
RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS LIKELY TO REMAIN
LARGELY LOCKED IN THE 20S TUESDAY...THEN ONLY RECOVERING SLIGHTLY ON
WEDNESDAY.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF WEDNESDAY`S CLIPPER SYSTEM...ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK. COUPLED WITH WHAT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...THIS WILL IN ALL LIKELIHOOD RESULT IN A SECOND ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS EAST-NORTHEAST AND/OR EAST OF THE LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LAKE ONTARIO PERHAPS
HAVING THE MORE FAVORABLE SETUP DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

LATER ON IN THE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE
ALSO PROVIDING A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SHEAR. ALL OF THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE LAKE SNOWS
WEAKENING AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY FALLING APART ALTOGETHER DURING
THE COURSE OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY WITH
JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
REMAINING CONFINED TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

[ayuud11]

Wow cape almost hits 1500 for a while on Tuesday per 18z nam bufkit data.

[crownweather]

From Tom Niziol that used to work at the Buf NWS:

 

If I wasn't excited before, Tom has gotten my attention. I will be chasing this if it ends up south of me. (After work) But based on model guidance I should be in a good spot.

 

 

 

Did some experimentation in BUFKIT and found that Niziol used the layer from the surface to the 20,000 foot EL he referred to for the mean wind direction (see his Facebook post from this morning w/ the mean wind direction photo).  I found that interesting as I have thought, up to now, that the surface to 700 mb mean wind should be used for lake effect wind flow or even a straight 850 millibar wind direction.  Guess I'm trying to figure out which layers of the atmosphere should be averaged out for mean wind direction for lake effect snow bands.    

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Wow cape almost hits 1500 for a while on Tuesday per 18z nam bufkit data.

 

Wow, incredible. Just got back from the gym and its been snowing moderately for the last 1-2 hours here.

[Superstorm]

Traveling up there for business this week so should be interesting.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BuffaloWeather]

[crownweather]

Looking at the 00 and 06Z guidance, it seems that it is going to be a very close call for downtown Buffalo late Monday night and Tuesday and the forecast snow band placement may be a little too far south when comparing it to the forecast wind fetch off of Lake Erie.  

If you look at the most recent 06Z 4 km NAM model, it shows a very disorganized band of snow over extreme southern Erie County on Monday night that shifts northward to as far north as Orchard Park and Hamburg by 4 am Tuesday morning.  Around dawn Tuesday morning, the 4 km NAM forecasts this band to become one single and concentrated band that impacts Hamburg and Orchard Park.  What is interesting is that the mean wind forecast by this same model is between 245 and 250 degrees which in theory should place this band further north into downtown Buffalo and Cheektowaga.  

During Tuesday morning, the 06Z 4km NAM model keeps this band across Hamburg and Orchard Park and hints at a small shift northward which would put the band temporarily into West Seneca and the south side of Buffalo for a few hours Tuesday morning.  Again, the mean wind forecast by the 4km NAM doesn't match what the radar should show as mean winds remain between 245 and 250 degrees which should put this band right over downtown Buffalo throughout the morning.     

Seems that both the European and Canadian models are for a major snow hit from about Lackawanna and points south with little snow north of Buffalo.       

Am wondering and kind of suspect that this may be the south bias of the models in placing snow bands and am wondering if we'll see the snow bands shift northward with future model runs.  

Have fun out there, I sure am jealous!!   

[Buffalo Bumble]

Looking at the 00 and 06Z guidance, it seems that it is going to be a very close call for downtown Buffalo late Monday night and Tuesday and the forecast snow band placement may be a little too far south when comparing it to the forecast wind fetch off of Lake Erie.  

If you look at the most recent 06Z 4 km NAM model, it shows a very disorganized band of snow over extreme southern Erie County on Monday night that shifts northward to as far north as Orchard Park and Hamburg by 4 am Tuesday morning.  Around dawn Tuesday morning, the 4 km NAM forecasts this band to become one single and concentrated band that impacts Hamburg and Orchard Park.  What is interesting is that the mean wind forecast by this same model is between 245 and 250 degrees which in theory should place this band further north into downtown Buffalo and Cheektowaga.  

During Tuesday morning, the 06Z 4km NAM model keeps this band across Hamburg and Orchard Park and hints at a small shift northward which would put the band temporarily into West Seneca and the south side of Buffalo for a few hours Tuesday morning.  Again, the mean wind forecast by the 4km NAM doesn't match what the radar should show as mean winds remain between 245 and 250 degrees which should put this band right over downtown Buffalo throughout the morning.     

Seems that both the European and Canadian models are for a major snow hit from about Lackawanna and points south with little snow north of Buffalo.       

Am wondering and kind of suspect that this may be the south bias of the models in placing snow bands and am wondering if we'll see the snow bands shift northward with future model runs.  

Have fun out there, I sure am jealous!!   

 

Nice analysis - keep it coming!  I'm getting ready for a chase on Tuesday if this doesn't make it up to the airport.  

[BuffaloWeather]

Looking at the 00 and 06Z guidance, it seems that it is going to be a very close call for downtown Buffalo late Monday night and Tuesday and the forecast snow band placement may be a little too far south when comparing it to the forecast wind fetch off of Lake Erie.  

If you look at the most recent 06Z 4 km NAM model, it shows a very disorganized band of snow over extreme southern Erie County on Monday night that shifts northward to as far north as Orchard Park and Hamburg by 4 am Tuesday morning.  Around dawn Tuesday morning, the 4 km NAM forecasts this band to become one single and concentrated band that impacts Hamburg and Orchard Park.  What is interesting is that the mean wind forecast by this same model is between 245 and 250 degrees which in theory should place this band further north into downtown Buffalo and Cheektowaga.  

During Tuesday morning, the 06Z 4km NAM model keeps this band across Hamburg and Orchard Park and hints at a small shift northward which would put the band temporarily into West Seneca and the south side of Buffalo for a few hours Tuesday morning.  Again, the mean wind forecast by the 4km NAM doesn't match what the radar should show as mean winds remain between 245 and 250 degrees which should put this band right over downtown Buffalo throughout the morning.     

Seems that both the European and Canadian models are for a major snow hit from about Lackawanna and points south with little snow north of Buffalo.       

Am wondering and kind of suspect that this may be the south bias of the models in placing snow bands and am wondering if we'll see the snow bands shift northward with future model runs.  

Have fun out there, I sure am jealous!!   

 

One thing you want to take into account, especially in early season events is that lake effect bands tend to go farther north than modeled. The reasoning behind this is below. This band will make it into the city.

 

THE COLDEST AIR DIVING TO OUR SOUTHWEST

ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY…AS WELL AS IN SHOWING THERMALLY-ENHANCED

LOW LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DUE TO THE

COMBINED /I.E. LAKE AGGREGATE/ DIABATIC WARMING EFFECTS OF THE

LAKES.

 

BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR A MORE

NORTHERLY POSITION TO THE LAKE BANDS THAN OFFERED BY SOME OF THE

GUIDANCE…WHICH TYPICALLY HAS A SOUTHERLY BIAS THIS EARLY IN THE

SEASON DUE TO THE LATTER PROCESS.

 

PUTTING ALL THIS TOGETHER…EXPECT THE DOMINANT FLOW DURING THE

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD TO BE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY IN NATURE

OR ALONG THE LINES OF THE MORE BACKED FLOW SEEN IN THE 12Z NAM AND

ECMWF.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Latest KBUF NWS discussion.

 

MODEL QPF CONSENSUS ALONG WITH SNOW RATIOS BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING A GENERAL 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR THAT WRAPS INTO THE
AREA THESE NUMBERS COULD BE A TOUCH HIGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS.

THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY
ACROSS THE ACROSS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO TURN SHARPLY COLDER AND WESTERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE. THIS WILL BEGIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS IN EARNEST.

LAKE EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE ARCTIC AIR
THAT WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR MID NOVEMBER WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO -14C TO -16C...SOME 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. THE INITIAL LOW LEVEL FLOW SET UP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A
DOMINATE WEST-SOUTHWEST SNOW BAND OFF BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO. THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL VEER THE FLOW SLIGHTLY TO WESTERLY.

VERY IMPRESSIVE OMEGA WITHIN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOWN
ON BUFKIT OVERVIEWS. PROFILES SUCH AS THESE OFTEN ARE SIGNALS FOR
INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER AND LIGHTING. SNOWFALL TOTALS DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER IMPRESSIVE AND LIKELY OF SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT.

IN ADDITION...MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST WIND GUSTS
COULD EXCEED 35 MPH ENHANCING IMPACTS WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

BY THE TIME WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE REGION...WITH THIS FEATURE AND ITS ATTENDANT
SYNOPTIC SNOWS REACHING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE
PROCESS...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FORCE A RAPID BACKING OF THE WINDS
WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE LAKE SNOWS QUICKLY
SHIFTING TO AREAS NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND DRAMATICALLY
WEAKENING BY MIDDAY...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MORE GENERAL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF WEDNESDAY`S CLIPPER SYSTEM...ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK. COUPLED WITH WHAT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...THIS WILL IN ALL LIKELIHOOD RESULT IN A SECOND ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS EAST-NORTHEAST AND/OR EAST OF THE LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LAKE ONTARIO PERHAPS
HAVING THE MORE FAVORABLE SETUP DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

[BuffaloWeather]

I wonder where OSU is. He would/should be all over this. He always has the best information.

[Superstorm]

Planting myself around Hamburg or Lackawanna.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BuffaloWeather]

Planting myself around Hamburg or Lackawanna.

Sent from my iPhone

 

Awesome! Chose one of the hotels in Hamburg by exit 57. They are really nice around that area. I can pick you up and go chasing Monday night.

[ayuud11]

The 12z nam is showing a mean wind of 250 from 10z Tuesday to 03z Wednesday with a fluctuation to 240 for a while on Tuesday.

[crownweather]

 

One thing you want to take into account, especially in early season events is that lake effect bands tend to go farther north than modeled. The reasoning behind this is below. This band will make it into the city.

 

THE COLDEST AIR DIVING TO OUR SOUTHWEST

ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY…AS WELL AS IN SHOWING THERMALLY-ENHANCED

LOW LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DUE TO THE

COMBINED /I.E. LAKE AGGREGATE/ DIABATIC WARMING EFFECTS OF THE

LAKES.

 

BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR A MORE

NORTHERLY POSITION TO THE LAKE BANDS THAN OFFERED BY SOME OF THE

GUIDANCE…WHICH TYPICALLY HAS A SOUTHERLY BIAS THIS EARLY IN THE

SEASON DUE TO THE LATTER PROCESS.

 

PUTTING ALL THIS TOGETHER…EXPECT THE DOMINANT FLOW DURING THE

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD TO BE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY IN NATURE

OR ALONG THE LINES OF THE MORE BACKED FLOW SEEN IN THE 12Z NAM AND

ECMWF.

 

 

 

Thanks for the tip!!  That's what I figured given the forecast wind direction forecast off of the hi res NAM which would put the band right over Buffalo.  Haven't had a chance yet to look at the first 12Z guidance as have been busy with my own weather which includes a snow/ice event for tomorrow night.  

[BuffaloWeather]

The 12z nam is showing a mean wind of 250 from 10z Tuesday to 03z Wednesday with a fluctuation to 240 for a while on Tuesday.

 

If I remember correctly last years January blizzard was supposed to be a southtown special and not even make it up to the airport. It ended up making it to the northtowns of Amherst/Tonawanda/etc... with the airport receiving 1 1/2 feet.

[ayuud11]

I'm starting to think the jackpot would be from West Seneca out to the airport.

[BuffaloWeather]

The 12z nam is showing a mean wind of 250 from 10z Tuesday to 03z Wednesday with a fluctuation to 240 for a while on Tuesday.

 

GEM goes way north with the band into the far northtowns.

[BuffaloWeather]

NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-

SOUTHERN ERIE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...

JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE

957 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING

THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...ERIE...GENESEE...WYOMING...CHAUTAUQUA...

CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES.

* TIMING...EARLY MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING ONE TO TWO FEET

OR MORE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY MAKE FOR VERY

DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES. BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN GREATLY

REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH

RESPECT TO THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT

SNOW.

[crownweather]

12Z 4 km NAM overlay of mean wind direction, lake induced CAPE and lake induced EL.  

The white line is the CAPE and the yellow line is the EL which makes it to 500 millibars during Tuesday.  

 

[ayuud11]

GEM goes way north with the band into the far northtowns.

Interesting the 12z 4km nam BUFKIT data is showing winds fluctuating from 250-240 also for majority of Tuesday.. But the 09z SREF and the regular 12z nam are in the 255-260 camp.

[BuffaloWeather]

Interesting the 12z 4km nam BUFKIT data is showing winds fluctuating from 250-240 also for majority of Tuesday.. But the 09z SREF and the regular 12z nam are in the 255-260 camp.

 

I'll go with a 240-270 fluctuation from Monday-Thurs. Pretty much covers all of Erie county. I don't see this event staying over one location the entire time. I see it meandering quite often throughout the county. If it does end up stalling over a specific location, look out...3 inches an hour+ 12-18 residence time.....Going to be some insane totals.

[ayuud11]

GEM goes way north with the band into the far northtowns.

Looks like a BUF/ART special on that one, The 4km WRF out of BTV nails ART but keep the LES mainly south of buffalo.

 

I'll go with a 240-270 fluctuation from Monday-Thurs. Pretty much covers all of Erie county. I don't see this event staying over one location the entire time. I see it meandering quite often throughout the county. If it does end up stalling over a specific location, look out...3 inches an hour+ 12-18 residence time.....Going to be some insane totals.

 

Lets see what the afternoon AFD says, they didn't get into that much detail on the morning one. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Looks like a BUF/ART special on that one, The 4km WRF out of BTV nails ART but keep the LES mainly south of buffalo.

 

 

Lets see what the afternoon AFD says, they didn't get into that much detail on the morning one. 

 

I have to drive 21 miles everyday this week to a location right next to the NWS for a new job I'm training for Monday to Friday... Should be fun...I am filling the car with food, water, blankets and warm clothes. If things get really bad I will just stay at my parents house on the Cheektowaga/Amherst border.

[BuffaloWeather]

 

 

 

[ayuud11]

I have to drive 21 miles everyday this week to a location right next to the NWS for a new job I'm training for Monday to Friday... Should be fun...I am filling the car with food, water, blankets and warm clothes. If things get really bad I will just stay at my parents house on the Cheektowaga/Amherst border.

That's not bad i have to drive 230 miles a day from Hamburg to Niagara falls doing auto parts delivery lol.

[BuffaloWeather]

That's not bad i have to drive 230 miles a day from Hamburg to Niagara falls doing auto parts delivery lol.

 

O god, good luck with that this week. It's about 42 mile daily round trip from here to the airport each day. But the 90 is always so busy during rush hour. If snowfall rates end up being 3+ inches per hour. No one is going anywhere.

[Buffalo Bumble]

This synoptic system tonight/tomorrow is looking like a nice appetizer to the lake effect event.  BUF now issuing an adivsory for WNY for 3-6". 

[ayuud11]

wOw

 

- Changed Discussion --

...MAJOR AND VERY DISRUPTIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT LIKELY EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...

THE STAGE IS SET FOR A MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT STARTING MONDAY
EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE JUST ABOUT OVER BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING...WITH
JUST A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LEFT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL QUICKLY
EXIT. THIS WILL LEAVE MAINLY LAKE EFFECT TO DEAL WITH THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. A MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS LATER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY EVENING.

FROM A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...A MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING THEN MOVE EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK. A STRONG PUSH OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW...MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND COMING AT THE LOWER LAKES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
IS A HALLMARK OF A MAJOR SINGLE BAND EVENT. THE POSITION OF THE
850MB CLOSED LOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY
FAVORS A SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENT OFF BOTH LAKES PER COMPARISON TO OUR
ANALOG CHARTS OF THE PAST 15 YEARS OF LAKE EFFECT EVENTS. BY LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE POSITION OF THE 850MB CLOSED LOW MOVES
FARTHER EAST...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A PERIOD OF MORE WESTERLY FLOW PER
THE ANALOG COMPARISON CHARTS. THIS SUGGESTION OF BAND MOVEMENT FROM
THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES MATCHES VERY WELL WITH WHAT MOST MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING.

THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MATCHES WELL WITH LARGE
ANALOG EVENTS FROM THE PAST. IN ADDITION...THE OVERALL PATTERN
APPEARS TO MATCH WELL TO A LAKE EFFECT EVENT FROM EARLY DECEMBER OF
2009 WHICH PRODUCED VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND STRONG WINDS
WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OFF BOTH LAKES. IN FACT...THE CIPS
ANALOG PAGE FROM SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY RETURNS THIS DATE AS ONE OF
ITS ANALOGS. EVENTS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE EXPECT FROM THIS EVENT IN THE
PAST HAVE PRODUCED LARGE DISRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL WITH MAJOR HIGHWAY
CLOSURES...INCLUDING THE NYS THRUWAY AND INTERSTATE 81.

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE EXTREME WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE
PEAKING AT AROUND 1400J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 20K FEET.
SUCH STRONG INSTABILITY AND WELL ALIGNED FLOW IS STRONGLY SUGGESTING
INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES WITH 3-5 INCHES PER HOUR A POSSIBILITY AT
TIMES FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. OUR LAKE EFFECT
LIGHTNING NOMOGRAM FROM LOCAL RESEARCH DONE BY RSH ALSO SUGGESTS A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AND LIGHTNING OFF BOTH LAKES. WINDS WILL
BE STRONG ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH
GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN AND NEAR THE
BANDS.

OFF LAKE ERIE...
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BEGIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
AND BE FAIRLY WEAK AT FIRST WITH AN INITIAL SYNOPTIC SCALE DRY SLOT
AND DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A MORE DEFINED BAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE. EXPECT THE BAND TO INITIALLY BE
BROAD FROM THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. THE BAND SHOULD THEN FOCUS ON SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING
COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN DRIFT NORTH INTO THE BUFFALO
SOUTHTOWNS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ON TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT THE BAND TO DRIFT RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF
THE BUFFALO METRO AREA WITH THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
TRENDING A LITTLE NORTH OF PREVIOUS RUNS. THE BAND WILL THEN SIT
OVER THE BUFFALO METRO AREA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL CREATE A LULL FOR THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO VEER...PUSHING THE LAKE BAND BACK SOUTH
THROUGH THE SOUTHTOWNS. TUESDAY NIGHT FLOW WILL BECOME 260-270
BRIEFLY...WHICH WILL PUSH THE BAND BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. FINALLY...ON WEDNESDAY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW QUICKLY BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST CARRYING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BACK
NORTH ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. BY THIS TIME THE BAND SHOULD BE
IN A WEAKENING PHASE AS INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER.

STRONG WINDS...DEEP INSTABILITY...AND AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW
THIS BAND OF SNOW TO TRAVEL WELL INLAND. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
INCLUDED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR ALLEGANY...LIVINGSTON...AND
MONROE COUNTIES WITH LOCAL 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THOSE COUNTIES.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING
THEN TAKE AWHILE TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE BAND. IT SHOULD DO SO
BY TUESDAY MORNING AS SHEAR DECREASES AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE
BAND MAY INITIALLY FOCUS ON THE NORTHERN TUG HILL TO JUST SOUTH AND
EAST OF WATERTOWN MONDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIFT NORTH TO WATERTOWN
TUESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE
PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WILL
THEN MOVE THE BAND BACK SOUTH AND FOCUS ON THE CENTRAL TUG HILL
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE TIME PERIOD OF
MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES OFF LAKE ONTARIO. THE BAND WILL MOVE
BACK NORTH BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH JEFFERSON COUNTY AND
WEAKEN AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD TEMPORARILY SHUT DOWN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES SSW. LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT A
CLIPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
BEHIND THE CLIPPER ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW...
BUT THE AIRMASS IS NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE FIRST SO INSTABILITY IS
NOT AS STRONG...AT LEAST INITIALLY.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

-- Changed Discussion --

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT
APPEARS LIKELY AS A FRESH BATCH OF COLD AIR ARRIVES. LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS THE FIRST EVENT...BUT
STILL SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. THIS SHOULD FINALLY END ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

[ayuud11]

This synoptic system tonight/tomorrow is looking like a nice appetizer to the lake effect event.  BUF now issuing an adivsory for WNY for 3-6". 

Latest 18z nam run shows 6-7" for BUF.