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November 2014 General Discussion


Geos

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Temperature around 34F here in my area. Been snowing lightly for most of the day today. Nothing serious, but its always nice to get some mood flakes here and there, haha. 

 

Been rather dry of late. So far, were about 1-1.5 inches below normal in terms of precipitation for this Fall. 12 days in and YYZ only record 0.44" of precipitation ( 0.35" rain and 0.86" snow). Hopefully December has more active storminess. 

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From Michael Skipper at IWX....

 

..ONGOING HIGHS OF GENERALLY 29F TO 35F

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S

MONDAY AND TUESDAY APPEAR ON TRACK. THE COLDEST HIGH RECORD FOR

TUESDAY AT FT WAYNE NOVEMBER 18 IS 26F. HAVE LOWERED THE HIGH TO

26F...THE CANADIAN GEM EPS GRAM AND ECMWF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE

SUPPORTS HIGHS OF ONLY 22F TO 24F. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO

-18C TUESDAY.

 

A record may be broken :shiver:

 

LAF had a high of 25 on 11/24/13 with an airmass that was similar if not a touch warmer than what's progged next week, so I see no reason to think we won't have temps at a similar level (assuming the cold doesn't moderate on the models, of course).

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on-and-off snow showers.  Looking at radar earlier, it looked like steel mill-effect.  (Ambient moisture high enough because of lake + fairly steep low-level lapse rates + factory pollutants acting as CCN?)  Wasn't really cellular or aligned in bands like the LES farther north, and our wind is 280-290, which is hardly a fetch over the lake at all, and definitely not enough of a fetch to get anything going in that department.

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As far as Tuesday temps, it would be interesting to see how many of the record/near record cold days over the years around this period had any snowcover.  If we have something like -18C at 850 mb for Tuesday, that's really cold regardless of any snow, but we may actually have some on the ground this time.  I say "may" because temps are actually forecast to get above freezing here on Sunday which makes it unclear as to how much we will be able to retain.  But let's take the optimistic route and say we have at least a 1" cover locally and an upstream snow field of 1-3" (maybe more in spots?)... it's not a lot but you start getting feedback onto temperatures and the low level flow on Tuesday will be traveling over that snow field.  Enough rambling...what it comes down to is that one could make a case that temps don't get much above 20-22F here on Tuesday if everything were to break right.

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Daily snowfall record set for South Bend.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
219 PM EDT THU NOV 13 2014

...RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL AT SOUTH BEND...

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 6.2 INCHES WAS SET AT SOUTH BEND TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.7 SET IN 1974. THIS SNOWFALL AMOUNT
COULD STILL INCREASE AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE
AREA.

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A bit busy here in the last half hour

 

KDTW 132100Z 27007KT 7SM -SN SCT015 BKN030 BKN070 M02/M04 A3015 RMK AO2 P0000
KDTW 132053Z 27013KT 1SM -SN SCT020 BKN030 OVC070 M01/M04 A3015 RMK AO2 SLP216 P0001 60004 T10111039 53001 RVRNO
KDTW 132040Z 25013KT 1/4SM -SN BKN044 BKN070 00/M05 A3015 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4 P0001 RVRNO
KDTW 132031Z 29009KT 1SM -SN BKN044 BKN070 00/M06 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 2 VIS NW-NE 4 P0001

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